Aris Thessaloniki vs Olympiacos Prediction: 14.12.2025 Super League 1 2025/26

When Aris Thessaloniki welcome Olympiacos to Kleanthis Vikelides on the 14th of December, Greek football fans know they’re in for a contest that’s about far more than just three points. While Olympiacos have set a relentless pace atop the table, Aris come into this with a steely resolve to upset the odds and prove their mettle in front of an expectant Thessaloniki crowd. There’s no hiding the gulf in consistency, but derbies of this magnitude are rarely straightforward—especially with Aris desperate for a statement result and Olympiacos eager to underline their title credentials.

Among the key players to keep an eye on, Aris’s Loren Moron remains their main attacking threat, having found the net in their recent fixtures and often working tirelessly against more fancied opposition. For the visitors, Ayoub El Kaabi stands head and shoulders above this season’s striking cast—his five goals in the last five matches underscore not only finishing prowess but also his keen instinct to pounce on lapses in defensive structure.

The hot stat for this encounter? Olympiacos have netted 13 goals in their last five matches, showcasing a potent attack that Aris’s backline—who have conceded 16 in 13 league games—will need to be at their organised best to contain.

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Aris Thessaloniki vs Olympiacos prediction

With Olympiacos hitting an imperious run of form—five wins from their last six—while Aris have stumbled with just one victory in their last five, the reigning leaders rightly enter as favourites. The data supports this: Olympiacos’s renowned attacking verve and disciplined set-up under Mendilibar have been matched by a stingy backline (only seven conceded all season), while Aris have struggled for consistency under Manolo Jiménez, particularly in defence and shot generation (41 shots to Olympiacos’s dominating 113 over the last five games).

Aris do not shy away from putting in a scrap, reflected in their high foul count—36 compared to Olympiacos’s 53 over five games—and their eight yellow cards. This willingness to play on the edge might just disrupt Olympiacos’s rhythm, but it comes with risk. Ball retention will be crucial, yet Aris have shown lower pass completion and fewer completed passes (855 vs 1627 for Olympiacos)—a telling sign of the away side’s superiority in controlling the midfield and dictating tempo.

Given Olympiacos’s firepower and Aris’s tendency towards matches with fewer goals, the most pragmatic prediction is an Olympiacos win, though both teams have shown enough attacking intent to fancy goals on either end. If Aris manage to harness the energy of the home support, an upset isn’t impossible, but the gap in quality is apparent.

Team Analysis

Aris Thessaloniki: Their recent matches have been a mixed bag, highlighted by a gritty 1-1 draw and a defeat to PAOK in high-intensity local derbies. Aris scraped a win against AEL Larisa but lacked punch in defeats to the likes of AEK Athens (0-1) and a frustrating goalless draw against Asteras Tripolis. The team’s passing intensity has been modest and chances created have tailed off, with only four goals scored in their last five games. Maintaining focus from set pieces and shoring up a sometimes porous defence will be essential if they are to stymie Olympiacos’s fluid forward line.

Olympiacos: The visitors have been a model of consistency, brushing aside Kairat Almaty (1-0) in Europe and trouncing the likes of OFI Crete (3-0) and Hellas Syrou (5-2) domestically. Even a 3-4 defeat to Real Madrid showcased their attacking intent against elite opposition. With 13 goals in their last five, Olympiacos are brimming with confidence, buoyed by El Kaabi’s finishing and Gelson Martins’s ability to break down tight defensive lines. The discipline in midfield, high shot volume and accuracy, and sharp defensive transitions make them a daunting opponent.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Aris Thessaloniki vs Olympiacos stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Olympiacos the favourite

• Moneyline Aris Thessaloniki 7.00 | Olympiacos 1.45
• Draw 4.00
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.82 | Under 2.5 2.05
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.93 | No 1.79

With Olympiacos being installed as 1.45 favourites across most books, the market is plainly aware of their recent momentum and squad depth. Aris’s price—never shorter than 6.50 anywhere—shows just how far the tide has turned. The over/under marks this match as likely to feature goals, sensible considering both teams’ recent attacking play. Both teams to score looks short enough to suggest Aris will find opportunities, but Olympiacos’s class is likely to decide the contest.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Aris Thessaloniki possible starting eleven

Aris are likely to maintain their familiar 4-2-3-1, with Dioudis between the posts given his consistent minutes. Pedro Alvaro and Lindsay Rose should marshal the centre, flanked by the energetic Fadiga and Tejero. In midfield, Racic’s bite and Monchu’s distribution compliment Galanopoulos. Going forward, Pérez’s creativity and Jensen’s surging runs will look to feed Loren Moron—the key threat up front. Keep an eye on Tejero’s overlapping play and López’s positioning off corners; they may be crucial in unsettling Olympiacos.

Olympiacos possible starting eleven

Olympiacos, under Mendilibar, have regularly fielded a marauding 4-2-3-1, sometimes shifting to a 4-3-3 when hunting a breakthrough. Tzolakis is a steady presence behind the aggressive and technically proficient back line. Hezze and García provide balance, enabling Strefezza to support El Kaabi and Taremi—each bringing pace and movement that’ll stretch Aris’s shape. El Kaabi is the undoubted focal point; his capacity to sniff out chances, especially alongside Martins’s directness and Taremi’s clever interplay, makes this trio a nightmare for any defence.

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My take on the Match

Everything points towards Olympiacos walking away with the spoils in Thessaloniki. They have the momentum, the squad depth, and the proven ability to score freely against all comers—not to mention defensive discipline that should contain Aris’s sporadic attacking bursts. Expect Aris to make things nervy early on, especially with a charged crowd behind them, but Olympiacos’s superior movement and clinical finishing in the final third should eventually tell. Look for El Kaabi and Taremi to be instrumental and for Olympiacos to secure a 2-1 or 3-1 result that sends out another statement in their quest for the title.

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