Sofia Quijada
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Argentina welcome Burkina Faso to El Monumental for a friendly that looks one-sided on paper, but carries real value in the margins. Scaloni’s side arrive unbeaten in their last fourteen outings, while Burkina Faso’s Amir Abdou has leaned on a disciplined but foul-heavy defense that has conceded structure as much as goals in recent months. The interesting wrinkle here is tempo: Burkina Faso average 38 fouls per five games against Argentina’s 11, a gap that could shape how referees manage this one from the opening minutes.
Lautaro Martínez scored in his last appearance and remains Argentina’s most direct route to goal through central runs. On the opposite side, Lassina Traore has found the net for Burkina Faso despite limited service, and he carries their best chance of an away goal against a backline that rarely concedes.
Hot stat: Burkina Faso committed 38 fouls across their last five matches, more than triple Argentina’s tally of 11, a discipline gap that could invite an early card or two if Argentina’s midfield starts dictating tempo quickly.
| 🏆 Tournament: | International Friendly 2026 |
| 🏟 Venue: | El Monumental, Buenos Aires |
| 🗓️ Date: | 04.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 02:00 CEST |
Argentina vs Burkina Faso prediction
We back Argentina to win comfortably, and perhaps more interesting is how they do it. Their last five matches produced 18 shots to Burkina Faso’s own defensive output against weaker sides, and with a 92% win rate this year against Burkina Faso’s 29%, the gulf in quality should show from kickoff. Our staff leans toward Argentina on the handicap alongside goals from both ends, since Burkina Faso have found the net in three of their last five outings despite the mismatch.
Argentina’s pass accuracy sits close to 90% in their last five games, well above Burkina Faso’s roughly 83%, and that control should let them dictate territory for long spells. Burkina Faso’s 38 fouls and higher card count in the same stretch point to a side that defends through contact rather than positioning, which against Argentina’s movement in the final third could easily produce a penalty or a set-piece chance. Expect Argentina to dominate the ball, Burkina Faso to sit compact, and fouls to pile up around the box as the Africans try to slow the game down.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Argentina to win both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 3.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Argentina have won their last fourteen matches in a row, and the most recent one against Bolivia ended 4-0, a result that showed the same attacking depth we have come to expect: Lautaro Martínez, Cristian Romero, José Manuel López and Nico Paz all found the net across the lineup. In our preview of Argentina vs Bolivia we called a wide-margin Argentina win built on Over 2.5 goals and a -2 handicap cover, and the 4-0 scoreline delivered on both fronts comfortably.
Burkina Faso’s form is far less convincing. Their last outing against Central Africa ended in a narrow 1-0 win, and the match before that was a 1-1 draw with Benin, a result that cost them momentum in their own qualification picture. In our preview of Burkina Faso vs Benin we predicted a comfortable home win by two goals or more, and the 1-1 draw that followed went against that call.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
Argentina and Burkina Faso have no recent competitive meetings on record between these sides, so there is no historical head-to-head sample to draw from for this fixture.
🚨Check out our dedicated Argentina vs Burkina Faso stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Argentina the favourite
- Moneyline Argentina 1.15 | Burkina Faso 13.00
- Draw 6.50
The market prices Argentina around an 80% implied win probability, and nothing in the squad depth or recent form argues against that number. Burkina Faso’s double-digit away odds reflect a side that has struggled to win consistently in 2026, winning only 29% of their matches this year compared to Argentina’s 92%. We see no value backing the draw or the upset here, the gap in class is simply too wide.
Burkina Faso. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Argentina possible starting eleven
- GK: Emiliano Martínez
- DF: Cristian Romero, Lisandro Martínez, Leonardo Balerdi, Agustin Giay
- MF: Alexis Mac Allister, Exequiel Palacios, Valentin Barco, Nico Paz
- FW: Julián Álvarez, Lautaro Martínez
Scaloni keeps his trusted 4-4-2 shape, with Nico Paz pushing forward from midfield to link with the front two. Lautaro Martínez and Julián Álvarez both carry scoring form, and Mac Allister’s passing range should control the tempo through the middle.
Burkina Faso possible starting eleven
- GK: Hervé Koffi
- DF: Issa Kabore, Edmond Tapsoba, Yacouba Nasser Djiga, Arsène Kouassi
- MF: Lohann Doucet, Ismahila Ouédraogo, Arthur Zagre, Rachid Kouda, Axel Sountonoma Taonsa
- FW: Lassina Traore
Abdou’s 4-1-4-1 setup relies on Lohann Doucet screening the back four while Arthur Zagre and Ismahila Ouédraogo support Lassina Traore, the lone striker and side’s main outlet on the counter.
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Argentina. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Argentina should handle this one without much resistance. The squad depth, the current fourteen-match unbeaten run, and Burkina Faso’s mixed form this year all point toward a comfortable home win. To be honest, the only debate among our staff is the margin, not the outcome. We predict Argentina to win, Over 3.5 total goals, and both teams finding the net given Burkina Faso’s tendency to score even against stronger opposition.
Read also: Argentina vs Burkina Faso Team News and Predicted Lineups: Who Starts?
