Sofia Quijada
Antofagasta host La Serena at the Regional Calvo y Bascuñán in a Copa Chile 2026 Group C clash that carries real weight for both sides. Antofagasta sit top of the group with four points from two games, meaning a win or draw keeps them firmly in control. La Serena, absent from the standings data provided, need a result to stay in contention. The bookmakers lean very slightly toward La Serena at 38%, with Antofagasta at 36% and a draw at 26%, making this one of the tightest calls of the round. Notably, the only recorded head-to-head between these clubs ended 1-2 in La Serena’s favor back in the 2024 Primera B season, so the visitors carry a psychological edge from that encounter.
For La Serena, Felipe Chamorro is the man to watch. The midfielder has scored 2 goals in 4 appearances across the last five matches, leads the team in free kick attempts with 7, and has accumulated 3 yellow cards, signaling an aggressive, high-impact style. In attack, Diego Rubio is sharp with 2 goals in just 2 games, giving La Serena a dangerous focal point up front.
Hot stat: La Serena have scored 7 goals across their last 5 matches, including a 4-1 win over Limache and a 2-4 loss to Colo Colo where they still managed to find the net twice against one of Chile’s strongest sides.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Copa Chile 2026, Group C |
| 🏟 Venue: | Regional Calvo y Bascuñán, Antofagasta |
| 🗓️ Date: | 21.06.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:30 CEST |
Antofagasta vs La Serena Prediction
Antofagasta’s recent form is uninspiring. They have gone winless in their last 4 matches (0W-1L-3D), and their last 5 results include two draws against San Marcos de Arica and CD Santa Cruz plus a defeat to Curico Unido. Their stats for the last 5 games show zero recorded goals, shots, or passes in the aggregate data provided, which points to either data gaps or a severely muted attacking output. La Serena, despite three losses in their last five, have been far more active going forward with 55 shots, 16 corners, and 7 goals in that span.
La Serena’s 4-2-3-1 setup gives them more flexibility in transition, and their pass accuracy of around 75% (1025 accurate from 1370 attempted) reflects a team that moves the ball with purpose. They commit 41 fouls and pick up 11 yellow cards across 5 games, showing an aggressive defensive approach that could work against Antofagasta’s more passive style. Antofagasta’s 4-4-2 tends to be compact, but without clear attacking stats, it is hard to see where their goals come from.
We predict La Serena to win this match. Their attacking numbers are substantially better, and Antofagasta’s inability to win in their last four games makes backing the home side difficult despite the venue advantage.
- Best bet: La Serena to win (Away win)
- Value pick: Over 2.5 goals, given La Serena’s 7 goals in 5 games and their tendency to play in open matches
- Both Teams to Score: Yes, as Antofagasta have managed to find the net in Copa Chile group play
| 🔥 Hot Tip: | La Serena to score in both halves |
| ⚽ Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥 Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯 Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Antofagasta have collected 4 points from 2 Copa Chile group games, winning one and drawing one, which puts them in a decent position on paper. Their broader form tells a different story. Luis Marcoleta’s side have not won in their last 4 matches across all competitions, drawing three and losing one. The most recent outing was a 0-0 draw against Magallanes, continuing a pattern of low-scoring, conservative performances. Their win earlier in the year against San Luis Quillota (3-1) remains their clearest attacking display in recent memory, and that was five games ago. The team’s overall 2026 record of 7 wins from 17 matches (41% winrate) is respectable, but the recent dip in momentum is a concern heading into a home fixture where they need to assert themselves.
La Serena arrive at this fixture off a 1-1 draw with Audax Italiano, their most recent result. That followed a 0-2 defeat to Union La Calera, a 2-4 loss to Colo Colo, a 4-1 win over Limache, and a 1-5 defeat to Palestino. The variance in results is striking, but the attacking output remains consistent. Felipe Gutiérrez’s side gave Colo Colo a game before losing, scored 4 against Limache, and even managed a goal against Audax. Their 2026 winrate of just 18% from 22 matches reflects an inconsistent season overall, but the 5-match attacking numbers are encouraging for this fixture.
🚨 Check out our dedicated Antofagasta vs La Serena stats page for more info.
Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability: La Serena the Favourite
- Moneyline Antofagasta 2.55 | La Serena 2.40
- Draw 3.10
The Bovada lines reflect the market’s slight lean toward La Serena at 2.40, which aligns with bookmaker probability estimates placing them at 38%. Antofagasta at 2.55 offers marginal value if you believe the home advantage can compensate for their poor recent form. The draw at 3.10 is fair given both teams’ tendency to share points, but with La Serena’s attacking output considerably higher than Antofagasta’s, backing the visitors at 2.40 represents the cleaner bet. To be honest, the Bons line omitting a draw price entirely makes Bovada the only usable source for a full market here.
Possible Starting Lineups
Antofagasta Possible Starting Eleven
Antofagasta’s lineup data was not available in the provided dataset. Coach Luis Marcoleta typically deploys a 4-4-2 shape based on recent match records. The team’s compact midfield block is central to their approach, though their lack of attacking output in recent games suggests the forward pairing may be rotated ahead of this group decider.
La Serena Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Federico Lanzillota
- DF: Bruno Gutierrez, Rafael Delgado, Joaquín Gutierrez, Matias Pinto
- MF: Francis Mac Allister, Gonzalo Escalante, Sebastián Díaz, Felipe Chamorro
- FW: Jeisson Vargas, Diego Rubio
Felipe Gutiérrez sets up in a 4-2-3-1, with Francis Mac Allister anchoring the midfield base alongside Gonzalo Escalante. Mac Allister has played every minute of the last 4 games and maintains the highest pass volume in the squad (180 passes, 143 accurate). Chamorro operates further forward with license to get into the box, while Diego Rubio leads the line. Rubio’s return of 2 goals in 2 appearances makes him the most dangerous attacker in this fixture. Lanzillota takes over in goal after Jose Tapia’s recent run, and the back four of Gutierrez, Delgado, Joaquín Gutierrez, and Pinto has been the most consistent defensive unit across the five matches reviewed.
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Antofagasta. Source: Official Instagram. Edited photo
The Verdict
La Serena are the pick here. Their 7 goals in 5 matches, 55 shots, and 16 corners across that stretch show a team that creates volume, and Diego Rubio’s recent goal-scoring form gives them a reliable finisher. Antofagasta’s winless run of four games and near-invisible attacking stats make it difficult to see them controlling this match even at home. The 4-4-2 block may keep it tight early, but La Serena’s 4-2-3-1 with Chamorro and Vargas in support of Rubio should generate enough to decide the game. We predict a 1-2 La Serena win, with over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring as strong supporting markets.
