Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor Prediction: 13.02.2026 Süper Lig 2025/26 Preview

As the Süper Lig 2025/26 season moves into its crucial second half, the mid-table clash between Antalyaspor and Samsunspor at Antalya Stadium draws keen attention from punters and fans alike. Beyond the points at stake, this match pits two sides with contrasting trajectories: Antalyaspor seeking to halt a difficult run of form under new coach Sami Uğurlu, while Samsunspor, coached by Thomas Reis, look to solidify their place in the league’s upper half. There’s an intriguing subplot as both sides have already met twice last season, with results notably split, underscoring the unpredictability here. Look for Sander van de Streek’s creativity in midfield for Antalyaspor and Marius Mouandilmadji’s goal threat for Samsunspor as primary individual influences on this encounter.

Across the last five matches, Samsunspor’s attacking intent is clear, firing off 81 shots—a stark contrast to Antalyaspor’s 36. This offensive proclivity, combined with solid midfield distribution, makes them a threat even as the away side.

Hot stat: Samsunspor have won 3 of their last 6 games with a 50% win rate, significantly better than Antalyaspor’s single win in the same span.

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Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor prediction

For value bettors, Samsunspor to win (Moneyline at average 2.00) stands as the best bet, supported by a stronger run of form and a sharper attacking profile. Samsunspor’s 4-2-3-1 formation creates a fluid offensive unit led by Mouandilmadji, whose recent goalscoring exploits set the tone. Antalyaspor’s 4-1-4-1 offers defensive structure, but their recent inability to keep clean sheets and lack of goals (only 3 in the last 5) raises concerns for backers.

Disciplinary trends show Antalyaspor collecting 9 yellow cards in their past five, indicating a tendency for physical play that could disrupt flow but also lead to exposure on counterattacks—something Samsunspor’s midfield, which contains technically sound players like Antoine Makoumbou and Olivier Ntcham, can exploit. Samsunspor’s lower yellow card count also bodes well for keeping their key players on the pitch, while their superior pass accuracy (1530 passes at a high conversion rate in 5 recent matches) suggests better control and rhythm.

Antalyaspor average fewer shots per match and, with only one win since the winter break, find themselves outmatched against a Sammunsunspor side trending upward. Expect the visitors to dictate tempo while Antalyaspor seeks opportunities on the break and set pieces.

Team Analysis

Antalyaspor:
In their last match, Antalyaspor suffered a 0-1 home defeat to Karagumruk, struggling to register meaningful chances (only 36 total shots in last five games) and looking vulnerable in transitions. Their lone bright result recently was a hard-fought 2-1 against Genclerbirligi, but defensive lapses and a lack of cutting edge in the final third were exposed again when losing 0-6 to Igdir. Sander van de Streek remains a key creative presence, scoring 2 goals from midfield, but Antalyaspor’s offensive output has largely been stifled, while yellow cards and fouls continue to mount.

Samsunspor:
Samsunspor, on the other hand, displayed resilience with a 2-0 win over Bodrumspor and a 1-0 against Kasimpasa, showcasing their ability to grind out results. Even in their recent 0-3 loss to high-flying Trabzonspor, the side generated more attacking momentum (81 shots in five matches) and managed to retain tactical discipline. Marius Mouandilmadji, with 3 goals in his last five, has emerged as their go-to striker. Samsunspor have also shown a tendency for high possession phases, evidenced by their 1800+ passes and high pass accuracy, giving them the edge in flow and control.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Samsunspor the favourite

• Moneyline Antalyaspor 4.00-4.10 | Samsunspor 1.95-2.04
• Draw 3.25-3.37
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.30 | Under 2.5 1.65
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.00 | No 1.73

Bookmakers price Samsunspor as clear favourites for good reason: recent form, away record, and a well-drilled attack support a relatively short 2.00 average price on the visitors. Antalyaspor’s long Moneyline odds reflect their struggling attack and defensive frailties, while the market leans toward a low-scoring affair—mirrored in the Under 2.5 prices. Both teams have shown moments of resilience, but statistics and form lines point squarely toward Samsunspor’s edge.
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Possible Starting Lineups

Antalyaspor possible starting eleven

• GK: Julián Cuesta
• DF: Veysel Sarı, Kenneth Paal, Hüseyin Türkmen, Samet Karakoç
• MF: Sander van de Streek, Soner Dikmen, Ramzi Safuri, Dario Šarić, Hasan Yakub İlçin
• FW: Doğukan Sinik

Antalyaspor is expected to deploy a compact 4-1-4-1, with van de Streek anchoring attacks from central midfield and Julián Cuesta as the reliable shot-stopper. The back four features experience, but lapses have been costly. Watch for Sander van de Streek’s late runs into the box and set-piece involvement. Defensive discipline is critical, as the side can be prone to bookings when chasing the match.

Samsunspor possible starting eleven

• GK: Okan Kocuk
• DF: Zeki Yavru, Rick Van Drongelen, Lubomír Šatka, Soner Gönül
• MF: Antoine Makoumbou, Olivier Ntcham, Celil Yüksel, Carlo Holse, Elayis Tavsan
• FW: Marius Mouandilmadji

Samsunspor likely sticks with the successful 4-2-3-1, maximizing their midfield depth for increased possession and creativity. Mouandilmadji spearheads the attack in prime form, while Ntcham and Makoumbou provide a sturdy pivot. Zeki Yavru offers balance and leadership at the back. The formation allows for quick transitions and horizontal ball movement, making them versatile against most set-ups.

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My take on the Match

From a betting perspective, Samsunspor offer the ideal combination of positive momentum, tactical organization, and attacking threat to claim all three points in Antalya. While Antalyaspor remain a proud home side and have the potential to frustrate in spells, the evidence points to a controlled and ultimately successful evening for the visitors. My main pick: Samsunspor to win or Draw No Bet for added insurance. Expect a tactical battle featuring measured tempo from Samsunspor, with Mouandilmadji and van de Streek as the likely standout performers. Keep an eye on the Under 2.5 market as well, given both teams’ recent attacking struggles.

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