Anderlecht vs PAOK Prediction: 13 August 2026 UEFA Europa League

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Anderlecht carry a 1-0 advantage into this second leg at Lotto Park, having beaten PAOK in Thessaloniki last week. Vítor Bruno’s side need only to avoid defeat to progress, while Alessio Lisci’s PAOK must score and win — a scenario that should force the Greek side to open up in ways that could suit the Belgian hosts. What makes this tie particularly interesting is that PAOK’s bookmakers odds actually favour them to win the overall tie, yet Anderlecht already hold the key: the away goal from the first leg. The tension between statistical expectation and the actual scoreline on aggregate is where this match gets genuinely compelling.

Two players worth watching closely: Mihajlo Cvetkovic has been Anderlecht’s most direct attacking threat, contributing three goals across the last five matches and generating consistent shot volume from forward positions. For PAOK, Giannis Konstantelias is the man carrying the Greek side’s creative load — three goals and one assist in four matches, plus the highest shot count in PAOK’s squad at 14 over that stretch. If PAOK are going to turn this tie around, the ball needs to find Konstantelias in dangerous areas early.

The hot stat from recent fixtures: PAOK have committed 56 fouls across their last five matches, the highest count between these two sides, and that pattern of physical play could become a real problem in a match where they need to chase the game without collecting cards that might reduce them to ten men.

Anderlecht vs PAOK Prediction

Anderlecht sitting on a 1-0 lead from the first leg fundamentally changes how both teams will approach this match. PAOK have to score, which means they will push forward, which means space opens up on the counter — and Anderlecht have shown across their last 30 days of football that they know how to exploit those transitions, winning five of their last six matches. The Belgian side’s defensive structure under Vítor Bruno has been reasonably solid, conceding just once across those six games.

We think the most valuable market here is Anderlecht to win or draw — effectively the “Anderlecht to advance” bet — but in terms of a straight match result, the home win at odds around 3.10 offers real value given Anderlecht’s form and the structural advantage they already hold. PAOK’s away form tells a rougher story: their last five matches include two losses and they’ve only won two of their last four games overall. Chasing a deficit against a team playing at home, in form, managed by a coach who clearly set up well for the first leg… the numbers point one way.

Anderlecht average 8 goals scored across their last five matches compared to PAOK’s 5, and their pass accuracy figures (1114 accurate passes from 1327 attempted) are tighter and more controlled than PAOK’s volume-based approach. PAOK do circulate the ball more — 1782 passes attempted — but in a match where they need goals, that possession might not convert into the decisive chances they need. Anderlecht’s 13 yellow cards across five matches versus PAOK’s 8 suggests Vítor Bruno’s side plays with an edge, but PAOK’s 56 fouls (versus Anderlecht’s 50) points to a team that can get physical and scrappy when things aren’t going their way. Expect referee intervention to be a factor in the second half if PAOK go behind again or feel the tie slipping away.

Team Analysis

Anderlecht have been one of the more consistent sides across the past month, going five wins and one draw from six matches. Their last outing was a 2-1 win over RAAL La Louviere, a domestic result that kept their rhythm going heading into this second leg. Before that, the 1-0 win over PAOK in the first leg showed a disciplined, organised performance — they didn’t need to be spectacular, just effective. The 3-1 win over Hammarby in the previous qualifying round showed they can score freely when the opposition opens up, and the 1-0 win over AZ Alkmaar earlier demonstrated they can grind out results against better-ranked opponents. Danylo Sikan’s two goals across five matches add a direct goal threat alongside Cvetkovic, and the midfield pair of Lukas Ambros and Marco Kana provides a solid platform to build from. Anderlecht’s 24 corner kicks from five matches also suggests they generate set-piece danger at a consistent rate.

PAOK arrive at Lotto Park needing a result they haven’t managed to produce consistently in recent weeks. Their last four matches produced two wins and two losses, with the most recent being that 0-1 defeat to Anderlecht in the first leg. Before that, back-to-back wins over Dynamo Kyiv — 2-0 and 3-2 — showed they can score when the conditions are right and the opposition suits their style. The 2-3 loss to Twente prior to that run was a warning sign about their defensive fragility when pressed high. Konstantelias and Christos Zafeiris (one goal, eight shots in four matches) are the primary threats going forward, and Andrija Živković contributes one assist across four matches as the wide outlet. Honestly, PAOK’s squad is ranked considerably higher globally than Anderlecht’s, and the talent gap on paper is real — but form, context, and the first-leg deficit are working against them here.

Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Check out our dedicated Anderlecht vs PAOK stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: PAOK the Favourite

• Moneyline Anderlecht 3.10 | PAOK 2.19
• Draw 3.48
• Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A

The bookmakers making PAOK favourites at around 2.10-2.24 across most books is interesting when you consider that Anderlecht already lead the tie. The market is pricing PAOK’s individual match win probability higher — which, given their squad ranking and attacking quality, is defensible — but the Anderlecht win at 3.10 with Pinnacle (who set the sharpest lines) looks like it has genuine value. The draw at 3.48 is also worth noting: a 0-0 or 1-1 sends Anderlecht through, so any draw outcome is functionally a win for the Belgian side, making the “draw no bet” on Anderlecht an option worth considering for more conservative punters.

Possible Starting Lineups

Anderlecht Possible Starting Eleven

Vítor Bruno has settled into a 4-2-3-1 shape across recent matches, though the data suggests a more fluid three-forward setup is also possible. Colin Coosemans starts in goal — he’s appeared in all five recent matches and has been reliable with 7 saves. The back four picks itself: Giulian Biancone has played every minute across five games and leads the defensive line’s pass accuracy, while Leo Petrot anchors the left-center role. Enric Llansana is worth watching in midfield — two assists and 8 interceptions across five matches make him the engine of Anderlecht’s transition play. Up front, Cvetkovic’s three goals make him the clear focal point, with Sikan supporting with two goals of his own.

PAOK Possible Starting Eleven

Alessio Lisci has deployed a 4-3-3 consistently across PAOK’s recent matches, and there’s no reason to expect a major change here given they need to chase the game. Jiří Pavlenka takes the gloves with 9 saves across four appearances. The back four is anchored by Jonjoe Kenny and Michailidis, both of whom have played full minutes across four matches. Hatzidiakos carries a yellow card risk with 4 bookings already in four games — one more and he sits out the next round, which might make him cautious at a moment when PAOK need aggression. Konstantelias in the midfield-forward role is the player who makes PAOK dangerous; his 14 shots and 3 goals from four matches are the best numbers in the squad. Santamaria provides the defensive cover in midfield that allows the others to push forward.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

Anderlecht are in the stronger position, structurally and in terms of recent form. Five wins from six in the last 30 days, a clean sheet in the first leg, and the home crowd at Lotto Park — these are not small advantages. PAOK have the squad quality on paper, and Konstantelias could cause real problems if Anderlecht sit too deep, but the Greek side’s inconsistency (two losses in four recent matches, a foul-heavy style that risks discipline issues) makes them unreliable to back in a must-win scenario.

We think Anderlecht win this match 2-1. PAOK will push forward and create chances — they’re too good not to — and a goal from Konstantelias or Zafeiris is realistic. But Anderlecht’s counter-attacking efficiency, combined with Cvetkovic and Sikan’s finishing form, points to the Belgian side scoring twice. The “both teams to score” market fits the game script well, and over 2.5 goals makes sense given PAOK have no choice but to attack. Our primary tip is Anderlecht to win the match at around 3.10.

• Primary tip: Anderlecht to win — ~3.10
• Goals market: Over 2.5 goals
• BTTS: Yes
• Hot tip: Anderlecht to score in both halves

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