America MG vs Londrina PR Prediction: 14 July 2026 Campeonato Brasileiro Série B

America MG sit dead last in the Série B table with just 3 points from 11 games, and their home record offers little comfort. They have not won a single league match all season. Londrina PR arrive in Belo Horizonte in noticeably better shape, sitting 16th but having just dismantled CRB 5-0 in their most recent outing. That result is the key talking point entering this fixture: Londrina looked genuinely dangerous going forward, and America’s defence has shipped 19 goals in 11 games.

For America MG, forward Willian carries the most creative responsibility up front, registering four total shots in the last match despite the team’s lack of output. For Londrina, Bruno Santos de Oliveira is the standout name after contributing two goals against CRB, backed by strong pressing and direct running.

Hot stat: Londrina scored 5 goals in a single match against CRB while averaging 12 total shots across their last five games, compared to America MG’s average of just 9 shots and zero goals in the same period.

America MG vs Londrina PR Prediction

America MG’s season has been a disaster by any metric: zero wins, three draws, eight losses, and a goal difference of -13. Their last five matches produced zero goals scored. Londrina, despite their mid-table struggles, arrive with momentum from a 5-0 win and have scored 16 goals in 10 league games this season. The gap in attacking output is stark.

America MG play a 5-4-1 shape that prioritises defensive compactness, yet their numbers show it is not working. They average 12 fouls per game across their last five, suggesting a reactive, pressure-based approach that gives away set pieces regularly. Londrina’s 4-3-3 is more aggressive in pressing, averaging 9 fouls per game, with higher pass volume despite lower accuracy, which points to a direct, transition-heavy style. America’s pass accuracy (316 out of 383 attempted) is higher in absolute numbers but translates to no goals, meaning possession is largely sterile. Londrina’s directness has been far more effective.

We predict Londrina PR to win or draw as the primary value bet. A Londrina win at odds around 3.90-4.33 offers genuine value given America MG’s complete lack of attacking output and their winless season. The double chance (Draw or Londrina) is arguably the safest play in this fixture.

Team Analysis

America MG have lost their last two matches and have not won in five. Their season record of 6 wins from 30 games (20% win rate) across all competitions tells the full story. In their most recent league match, they lost 0-1 to Cuiaba, a side that has drawn seven of their twelve games. Before that, a 0-3 home loss to Juventude and a 1-2 defeat to Vila Nova. Their lone bright spot in this run was a 3-2 win over lower-ranked Cianorte. Coach Umberto Louzer has yet to find any consistent formula, and the team’s zero-goal output across the last five Série B matches is a serious concern heading into any fixture.

Londrina PR’s last five games show more variance but genuine quality at the top. The 5-0 demolition of CRB is their standout result, with Bruno Santos de Oliveira (2 goals), Lucas Marques (1 goal), and Gilberto (1 goal) all contributing. Prior to that, a 0-1 home loss to Vila Nova and a 4-1 win over Ponte Preta show a team capable of big wins and occasional slip-ups. Their 35% win rate from 26 games this year is modest, but the recent trajectory under Rogério Micale points upward. Londrina have scored 16 goals in 10 league matches, the joint-highest output among the lower half of the table.

Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Check out our dedicated America MG vs Londrina PR stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: America MG the Favourite

• Moneyline America MG 1.95 | Londrina PR 4.33
• Draw 3.20
• Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A

The market makes America MG favourites at roughly 1.90-1.97 across bookmakers, driven by home advantage. To be honest, this feels like an overreaction to venue. America MG have not won at home all season and have scored zero goals in their last five league games. Londrina at 3.85-4.33 represents real value given their current form and attacking output. Pinnacle’s 4.09 and bet365’s 4.33 on Londrina stand out as the best prices available.

Possible Starting Lineups

America MG Possible Starting Eleven

America MG’s 5-4-1 base shape from recent matches suggests Louzer may shift to a back-four with Dalbert as a wide option. Gustavo in goal has made five saves in the last match. Matías Segovia in midfield draws fouls and attempts to link play, though his 10 lost balls last time out is a concern. Willian leads the forward line but needs more service to be effective.

Londrina PR Possible Starting Eleven

Londrina’s 4-3-3 gives Micale width and pressing intensity. Mauricio Kozlinski made five saves in the last match. Bruno Santos de Oliveira is the primary threat after his two-goal display against CRB, and Lucas Marques adds goal threat from midfield. Heron provides defensive cover on the left while also contributing to transitions. This is a well-structured side when it clicks.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

America MG are the worst team in the Série B table by a significant margin: no wins, a -13 goal difference, and zero goals scored across their last five matches. Londrina arrive with a 5-0 result behind them, a functional 4-3-3, and multiple goal contributors. The home advantage is the only real argument for America MG, and it has not translated to points all season.

We predict a Londrina PR win, with Bruno Santos de Oliveira likely to cause problems for a defence that has conceded 19 goals in 11 games. Over 2.5 goals in the match also looks attractive given Londrina’s recent output and America’s defensive fragility. BTTS is rated as No, since America MG’s attacking record makes it hard to back them to score against any organised defence.

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