Rafael Nogueira
Primeira Liga’s penultimate round brings a direct clash between Alverca and Estoril, both locked at 38 points and tied in the mid-table. Despite identical records, the context couldn’t be more different—Alverca have found some consistency with 3 wins in their last 5, while Estoril’s winless run puts pressure on coach Ian Cathro. For Alverca, Lucas Figueiredo dos Santos remains a dynamic threat up front, providing crucial attacking impetus, while Estoril’s Yanis Begraoui has been their only consistent scorer lately, netting 2 of their last 2 goals. The “hot stat”: Estoril managed only 2 goals in their previous 5 matches, underlining their offensive struggles.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Primeira Liga 2025/26 Regular Season, Portugal |
| 🏟 Venue: | Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, Alverca do Ribatejo |
| 🗓️ Date: | 10.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:30 CEST |
Alverca vs Estoril prediction
We predict Alverca will secure at least a point, with a narrow home win the most likely outcome. The hosts have generated momentum—winning 3 of their last 5—and their ability to create chances (35 total shots in 5 matches) contrasts with Estoril’s declining form and low conversion rate. Defensive lapses remain for both, but Estoril’s attack has faltered, producing just 2 goals in 5 games, while their backline appears vulnerable under sustained pressure.
Both teams average a moderate number of fouls (Alverca 52, Estoril 54 in 5 matches), but Estoril’s discipline is a concern with 8 yellow cards recently compared to Alverca’s 5. Ball retention also favors Alverca, boasting 1123 accurate passes over 5 matches (79% accuracy), while Estoril sit at 1558 passes (81% accuracy), but their midfield lacks bite, reflected by their higher interception numbers (37 vs. 20). Expect a scrappy midfield battle and multiple transitions, with both sides struggling to control the tempo.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Double Chance: Alverca or Draw |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Alverca’s latest match was a 0-1 home defeat to Porto, where they showed defensive resilience against the runaway league leaders. Before that, they beat Arouca 2-1 and Casa Pia 3-1, showcasing an ability to win tight games at home. Their attack looks varied, with Lucas Figueiredo and Francisco Chiquinho finding the net, while their defensive trio of Kaiky, Sergi Gómez, and Meupiyou Menadjou offer solidity when focused.
Estoril, by contrast, come off a 1-1 draw with Braga, finally ending a four-match losing streak. Their last five matches include three 0-1 or 2-3 defeats, all marked by missed chances and defensive lapses. Yanis Begraoui stands out as their only reliable finisher, but midfielders like Jordan Holsgrove and João Carvalho must step up to create more. The defense, with Francisco Reis Ferreira and Felix Bacher, continues to concede from set pieces and in transition.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Alverca | Estoril |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 4 |
| Total shots | 10 | 13 |
| Free kicks | 11 | 14 |
| Corner kicks | 6 | 8 |
| Total fouls | 12 | 14 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 74 | 77 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 8 |
| Offsides | 2 | 3 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Alverca vs Estoril stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Alverca the favourite
- Moneyline Alverca 2.44 | Estoril 2.81
- Draw 3.46
- Over/Under Over 2.5 2.05 | Under 2.5 1.78
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.85 | No 1.90
Bookmakers give Alverca a slight edge, reflecting their home advantage and recent form. The draw remains plausible given both teams’ mid-table positioning and similar season stats. Over/Under odds suggest little confidence in a goalfest, while both teams to score is priced tightly, but we see value in “No” given Estoril’s lack of firepower.
Estoril. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Alverca possible starting eleven
- GK: Mateus Oliveira Mendes
- DF: Kaiky Marques Naves, Sergi Gómez, Ndemeni Bastien Chefren Meupiyou Menadjou
- MF: Isaac James, Rhaldney Norberto Simiao Gomez, Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos, Davy Jean Carl Kamon Gui
- FW: Francisco Chiquinho, Marko Milovanović, Lucas Figueiredo dos Santos
Alverca stick with their preferred 3-4-2-1 formation. The back three offers stability, and Lincoln’s technical passing (194 passes in 4 games) anchors the midfield. Up front, expect Lucas Figueiredo to lead the line, with Chiquinho and Milovanović providing support. Marko Milovanović’s recent form and Chiquinho’s creativity make them key to Alverca’s attacking plans.
Estoril possible starting eleven
- GK: Martin Turk
- DF: Felix Bacher, Francisco Reis Ferreira, Antef Tsoungui
- MF: Miguel Angelo Da Silva Rocha, João Carvalho, Jordan Holsgrove, Ricard Sanchez Sendra
- FW: Rafik Guitane, Yanis Begraoui, Alejandro Mendez
Estoril likely continue with a 3-4-3, but lack balance between attack and defense. Bacher and Tsoungui need to tighten up at the back, while Ricard Sanchez’s width is vital on the right. Begraoui remains the focal point, but Rafik Guitane and Alejandro Mendez must support if Estoril hope to break their scoring drought. The midfield trio will be under pressure to control transitions and limit fouls.
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Alverca. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Alverca will edge this match—likely 1-0 or 2-0—based on recent momentum, home advantage, and Estoril’s lack of finishing. Alverca’s improved defense and versatile attack look decisive. Estoril’s inability to convert chances and their poor recent form suggest they will struggle to find the net. To be honest, the match could easily settle with just a single goal. Our TipsGG punters rate Alverca or Draw as the safest value in this matchup.
