Aluminij vs Dinamo Tirana Prediction: 23 July 2026 UEFA Conference League

Aluminij host Dinamo Tirana at Športni park Aluminij in Kidričevo in the second qualifying round of the UEFA Conference League 2026/27. The Slovenian side enters this tie in poor form, having failed to win a single game across their last six outings, while the Albanian champions arrive carrying genuine momentum from a 2-1 aggregate victory over FC Astana. The interesting angle here is that Aluminij have scored zero goals across their last five recorded matches, yet they are the home side in a European tie. That context shapes almost everything about how we approach this prediction.

Dinamo Tirana’s midfielder Bruno Dita stands out as a player to track. He scored in both of the club’s recent Europa/Conference qualifying legs and has been central to their build-up play. On the Aluminij side, forward Bamba Susso will need to be the creative spark if the hosts are to trouble the Albanian backline at all.

Hot stat: Aluminij have scored zero goals across their last five matches, a run that includes two scoreless draws against Sheriff Tiraspol and a goalless draw with Maribor. Their attack has gone completely cold at the worst possible moment.

Aluminij vs Dinamo Tirana Prediction

The numbers point firmly toward Dinamo Tirana. The Albanian side has won three of their last four matches and carries a 75% win rate over the past 30 days. Aluminij, by contrast, has not won in six attempts and has gone five consecutive games without scoring. That is not a team primed to push a well-organized European opponent around at home.

Dinamo Tirana generated 13 shots across their most recent match data and found the net four times in their last five games. Their 3-5-2 system mirrors Aluminij’s preferred shape, which means the midfield battle will be congested. Dinamo’s ability to win that zone, particularly through Dita and Klevi Qefalija, gives them a structural edge.

We predict a Dinamo Tirana win. The away side’s recent quality, combined with Aluminij’s complete inability to score, makes backing the Albanian club the most logical choice. The bookmakers also reflect this, with Dinamo slightly favored despite playing away from home.

Aluminij picked up three yellow cards in their last recorded match alone, suggesting a tendency to foul when under pressure. Dinamo Tirana collected six yellows across their recent five games, which points to a physical, confrontational style from both sides. That foul count and the mirrored 3-5-2 formation should produce a tight, direct contest with limited flowing football. Corners may be at a premium given how compact both teams set up, and Aluminij’s 13 corners from their last match suggests they do rely on set pieces to generate chances.

Team Analysis

Aluminij have been in a difficult spell. Their last six games produced zero wins, three draws, and three defeats. Across their last five matches they faced strong opponents, including two legs against Sheriff Tiraspol (UEFA-ranked 135th globally), a game against Partizan, and a tie with Noah. They failed to score in any of those fixtures. The most recent outing, a 0-0 draw with Maribor, at least kept a clean sheet, but it did nothing to suggest the attack is finding its rhythm.

Coach Jure Arsic has been unable to find a consistent goal threat. The squad data shows Murat Bajraj and Bamba Susso as the forward options, but neither registered a shot on target in recent appearances. The team’s reliance on corners (13 in their last match) and set pieces rather than open-play creation tells its own story about how limited their attacking patterns have become.

Dinamo Tirana arrive in far better shape. They have won three of their last four games, beating FC Astana 2-1 on aggregate in the previous qualifying round. Their 4-game record in the past 30 days reads three wins and one defeat, a stark contrast to Aluminij’s form. The defeat came against Egnatia, a far higher-ranked club, so that loss carries context.

Coach Ilir Daja has settled on a 3-5-2 setup that generates goals through midfield runners. Bruno Dita and Hekuran Berisha have both scored recently, and Lorenco Vila adds a physical presence up front. Dinamo’s 13 total shots in their most recent match and four goals in their last five games show that they are converting chances at a reasonable rate. They are not a team that dominates possession but they are effective when they get forward.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Dinamo Tirana the Favourite

• Moneyline Aluminij 2.70 | Dinamo Tirana 2.35
• Draw 3.36
• Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A

The odds confirm what the form data suggests. Dinamo Tirana are slight favorites at around 2.35 to 2.43 depending on the bookmaker, while Aluminij sit at 2.50 to 3.01. The draw is priced around 3.30 to 3.45. Given Aluminij’s complete goal drought, the value lies with Dinamo Tirana to win. The away win at roughly 2.35 to 2.43 is the most defensible bet on the board. A “Dinamo Tirana to win to nil” selection would offer even better value given Aluminij’s inability to score across five straight games.

Possible Starting Lineups

Aluminij Possible Starting Eleven

Aluminij should line up in their familiar 3-5-2. Florijan Raduha takes the gloves after playing the full 90 minutes in the last recorded match. The back three of Koderman, Boben, and Tezak provides the defensive foundation, though Boben and Tezak both picked up yellow cards recently and could be a booking risk again. Tomislav Jagic anchors the midfield and Matic Vrbanec adds energy from a wider role. Up front, Susso and Bajraj will need to find a way to end a five-match scoring drought.

Dinamo Tirana Possible Starting Eleven

Dinamo Tirana should replicate their 3-5-2 from the Astana tie. Aldo Teqja starts in goal having played the full 90 minutes in both recent legs. Naser Aliji is a reliable presence at the back. The midfield engine room of Dita and Qefalija will be key to controlling the game’s tempo. Bruno Dita is the standout player to watch: he has scored in recent competitive action and carries a real threat from deep runs. Berisha and Vila lead the line and both have goals to their names in this qualifying campaign.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

Everything in the data points toward a Dinamo Tirana win. Aluminij have not scored in five straight matches, have not won in six, and now face a team that has won three of their last four games with genuine European qualifying experience freshly banked against FC Astana. The 3-5-2 vs 3-5-2 matchup will make the game tight and physical, with both sides committing fouls and picking up cards. Aluminij’s set-piece reliance could produce corners, but it is unlikely to produce goals against a disciplined Albanian backline.

We predict a low-scoring Dinamo Tirana victory, most likely 0-1 or 1-0 in their favor. The “Dinamo Tirana to win to nil” market is the pick we are most confident in. Aluminij’s goal drought is too severe to ignore, and Dinamo have the quality to keep it clean on the road.

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