Sofia Quijada
Almeria, locked in a tense promotion chase, hosts Mirandes at Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos. With only two points separating them from the top spot, every fixture now weighs heavy. Mirandes, stuck in the relegation fight, must fight for survival. The atmosphere will be intense, fueled by Almeria’s firepower and Mirandes’s desperation. Sergio Arribas Calvo leads Almeria’s attack, scoring 4 goals in his last 4 matches, while Carlos Fernández is Mirandes’s prime hope, with 3 goals in his last 4.
Hot stat: Almeria have scored 10 goals across their last 5 matches, underlining their consistent threat in front of goal.
| 🏆 Tournament: | La Liga 2 2025/26 Regular Season, Spain |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos, Almeria |
| 🗓️ Date: | 04.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:30 CEST |
Almeria vs Mirandes prediction
We predict Almeria to win. The home side sits third in the table, with a 61% win rate this year and 67% in the last month. They average two goals per game over their last five, while Mirandes’s away record and recent form fail to convince. Mirandes only won twice in their last six and conceded 60 goals this season, the third-worst in the league. Almeria’s attack, led by Arribas and Embarba, has been relentless. Mirandes’s leaky defense and disciplinary issues (13 yellow cards in their last 5) further weaken their case.
Almeria controls the midfield with strong passing accuracy (83%), while Mirandes struggles at 77%. Both teams have been aggressive: 58 fouls each over the last five, but Mirandes picks up more bookings. Expect a physical match with plenty of set-pieces. Almeria’s set-piece proficiency and corner count give them an extra edge.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Almeria to win & Over 2.5 goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Almeria enters off a strong 4-2 win against Granada CF. They have bagged 10 goals in their last five games, suffering only two defeats and rarely drawing. The team’s pattern: heavy pressing, high pass completion, and frequent shooting (66 shots in 5). Sergio Arribas Calvo and Adrián Embarba have driven this run, both consistently involved in goals. Defensively, Almeria still concedes but outpaces opponents with their scoring.
Mirandes comes in after a 2-1 victory over Cultural Leonesa, snapping a streak of draws and losses. Despite scoring 7 in their last five, they remain shaky, often conceding and relying on Carlos Fernández for finishing. Their defense, marked by frequent yellow cards and high foul counts, faces pressure. Mirandes’s midfield lacks the control to suppress Almeria’s dynamic attack, and their away record is poor.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Almeria | Mirandes |
|---|---|---|
| Total shots | 66 | 56 |
| Free kicks | 8 | 13 |
| Corner kicks | 11 | 25 |
| Total fouls | 58 | 58 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 83 | 77 |
| Interceptions | 34 | 23 |
| Offsides | 8 | 9 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Almeria vs Mirandes stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Almeria the favourite
- Moneyline Almeria 1.49 | Mirandes 6.00
- Draw 4.75
- Over/Under Over 2.5 2.05 | Under 2.5 1.75
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.90 | No 1.80
Bookmakers rank Almeria as clear favorites, reflecting both form and table position. Mirandes’s high odds show little faith in an away upset. The draw price sits higher than average, hinting at expected dominance by the home side. Over 2.5 at a slim margin above evens, paired with both teams to score near 1.90, suggests anticipation of an open game. Our team views these odds as justified given Almeria’s attack and Mirandes’s defensive instability.
Possible Starting Lineups
Almeria possible starting eleven
- GK: Andrés Fernández
- DF: Álex Muñoz, Federico Bonini, Rodrigo Ely, Marcos Luna
- MF: Dion Lopy, Arnau Puigmal, Stefan Džodić, Sergio Arribas Calvo, Adrián Embarba
- FW: Miguel De La Fuente
This eleven reflects Almeria’s most consistent choices, with Arribas and Embarba leading the attack and Luna providing width. Bonini and Ely anchor a defense that must cut out errors. Expect a 4-2-3-1 formation to maintain midfield control and exploit Mirandes’s defensive gaps. Watch Arribas for driving runs and Embarba for set-piece threat.
Mirandes possible starting eleven
- GK: juan palomares
- DF: Fernando Medrano Gastañaga, Jorge Cabello, Juan Gutiérrez, Hugo Novoa Ramos
- MF: Thiago Emanuel Helguera Merello, Francisco Javier Hernandez Coarasa, Salim El Jebari
- FW: Carlos Fernández, Ali Houary, Siren Diao
Mirandes likely deploys a 4-2-3-1, matching Almeria’s shape. Medrano and Cabello remain key at the back. Helguera and Hernandez Coarasa must shield the defense and initiate transitions. Fernández is the focal point up front; Houary and Diao can stretch play. Watch Medrano’s overlaps and Fernández’s positioning.
🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅
- Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
- Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
- Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.
Mirandes. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
We predict Almeria will secure three points. Their dynamic attack, strong home record, and midfield control stack the odds. Mirandes’s discipline problems and porous defense should tip the balance. Both teams can score, but Almeria’s efficiency and squad depth give them a clear edge. Over 2.5 goals looks likely given both sides’ recent scoring rates and defensive vulnerabilities. Our punters team expects a 3-1 or 3-2 win for Almeria, with Arribas and Embarba likely to feature on the scoresheet.
