Sofia Quijada
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Almeria host Cadiz in an early La Liga 2 fixture on September 6, with both sides sitting in the bottom half of the table after three matchdays. Almeria have lost their last two league games, while Cadiz arrive unbeaten in three but yet to record a single win. The head-to-head record strongly favors the hosts, who have won three of the last five meetings, including a 6-1 demolition in La Liga 2023/24 and back-to-back wins last season.
Stefan Džodić and Nicolás Melamed are the players to watch for Almeria, with Džodić combining nine interceptions, seven shots, and a goal across the last three matches, making him the engine of García Pimienta’s midfield. For Cadiz, Antonio Cordero leads the forward line with a goal and the most accumulated fouls drawn in attack, giving Celades’ side their best outlet going forward.
Hot stat: Cadiz have committed 46 fouls across their last five matches compared to Almeria’s 23, meaning referee intervention is a near-constant factor in any game involving the visitors.
| 🏆 Tournament: | La Liga 2 2026/2027, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | UD Almería Stadium, Almeria |
| 🗓️ Date: | 06.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Almeria vs Cadiz Prediction
Almeria are the clear home favorite at odds averaging around 1.49, and the historical record backs that up. They have won four of the last five head-to-head encounters, scoring 13 goals in those games. Despite their poor start to the current season, Almeria’s 53% win rate across 32 matches this year is far stronger than Cadiz’s 16%, and the hosts carry a significant quality gap in squad depth.
Cadiz’s three draws to open the season reflect a team that struggles to convert pressure into wins rather than one that defends well. Their 11 yellow cards in five matches, compared to Almeria’s 3, and their near-double foul count suggest they concede territory and discipline under pressure. Almeria’s 4-2-3-1 setup should exploit wide areas against a Cadiz side that gives away free kicks generously, with 44 in five games. We predict Almeria to win, and the value sits firmly on the home side.
- Main Tip: Almeria to win
- Value Pick: Almeria to win and over 1.5 goals
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Almeria to win both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Almeria’s recent run is a mixed picture. They opened their La Liga 2 campaign with a 3-0 win over Eldense before dropping consecutive 0-1 defeats to Tenerife and Sabadell, two sides currently sitting in the top five. Outside of league action, they beat Cordoba 4-0 and Al Nassr 2-0 in pre-season or cup fixtures, showing plenty of attacking output when facing lower-ranked opposition. The losses to Tenerife and Sabadell came against organized, higher-ranked sides, so the context matters. García Pimienta’s 4-2-3-1 has produced 35 shots across five matches, and Federico Bonini’s composure from deep has helped maintain structure. The issue is converting chances, as Almeria managed just three goals in those five games.
Cadiz arrive with an interesting profile: seven matches across all competitions in 30 days, two wins, one loss, and four draws. Their La Liga 2 record is three draws from three, a 1-1 with Real Valladolid being the most recent. Before that, a 2-0 cup win over lower-league Chiclana and a 2-2 draw with Eldense. The 0-0 with Celta Vigo B and a 1-3 loss to Las Palmas round out the recent picture. Jokin Ezkieta in goal has made 15 saves in three appearances, which tells you Cadiz are absorbing a lot of pressure. Damián Rodríguez leads their midfield with 190 passes and four interceptions, but the team’s 46 fouls and 11 yellow cards in five matches is a disciplinary problem that will be tested by Almeria’s pressing style.
🚨Check out our dedicated Almeria vs Cadiz stats page for more info.
The five most recent meetings between these sides tell a clear story. Almeria have scored 13 goals to Cadiz’s 5, winning three times, drawing once, and losing once. Last season Almeria won both legs, 3-0 and 2-1. Cadiz’s only win came in the 2024/25 season opener, a 2-1 away result. The aggregate dominance of the hosts over recent years is a significant factor when weighing up the odds here.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Almeria the Favourite
- Moneyline Almeria 1.49 | Cadiz 5.80
- Draw 4.20
- Over/Under Over 2.5 — | Under 2.5 —
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — | No —
The bookmakers price Almeria at around 1.49, reflecting a 62% implied win probability. That aligns with the historical record and the quality gap between the two squads this season. Cadiz at 5.80 is generous enough to be tempting for an away upset, but the data does not support it. The draw at 4.20 is worth noting given Cadiz’s three consecutive draws to start the season, though Almeria’s home record and head-to-head dominance make a repeat of that pattern unlikely here.
Possible Starting Lineups
Almeria Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Andrés Fernández
- DF: Álex Muñoz, Federico Bonini, Jorge Pulido, Daijiro Chirino
- MF: Stefan Džodić, Mikel Vesga, Nicolás Melamed Ribaudo
- FW: Adrián Embarba, Miguel De La Fuente, Léo Baptistão
Andrés Fernández gets the nod in goal with seven saves across three matches, giving García Pimienta a reliable last line. Federico Bonini and Jorge Pulido form the central defensive partnership, with Bonini also contributing a goal from deep. The midfield three of Džodić, Vesga, and Melamed covers defensive work and creativity, with Melamed’s goal and assist making him the most productive player in the squad across recent matches. Miguel De La Fuente leads the press from the forward line and has recorded the most shots among Almeria’s attackers. A 4-2-3-1 formation is expected, consistent with their last five outings.
Cadiz Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Jokin Ezkieta
- DF: Javier Castro, Juan Díaz Peregrina, Bojan Kovacevic, Damián Rodríguez Sousa
- MF: Ibon Ignacio Sánchez Océn, Dilan Zárate, Manuel Fernández Arroyo
- FW: Antonio Cordero, Urko Iruretagoiena Lertxundi, Borja Vazquez
Ezkieta’s 15 saves in three games make him Cadiz’s most important player, and he will be tested again here. Javier Castro and Damián Rodríguez anchor the defensive structure with high pass volumes, though Rodríguez’s two yellow cards are a concern in a match where Cadiz will need discipline. Antonio Cordero and Urko Iruretagoiena both carry goals in recent games, giving Celades genuine attacking options. Cadiz’s 4-2-3-1 mirrors Almeria’s setup, which makes the midfield battle central to the outcome.
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Almeria. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Almeria are the right side to back here. Their head-to-head record over five meetings is dominant, their squad quality outranks Cadiz on almost every statistical measure this season, and the home setting at UD Almería Stadium adds further weight. Cadiz’s disciplinary issues, particularly 46 fouls and 11 yellow cards in five matches, create space for Almeria to win free kicks in dangerous areas and maintain attacking momentum. Cadiz’s goalkeeper Ezkieta will likely be busy again, and to be honest, holding Almeria to a draw on the road would be a surprise given everything the numbers show.
We predict Almeria to win, with both teams finding the net in what should be an open, foul-heavy game with corners in double figures. The best value combination is Almeria win and over 2.5 goals, supported by both the historical scoring patterns and Cadiz’s tendency to concede while also creating chances of their own through Cordero and Iruretagoiena.
