Arjun Menon
The Eerste Divisie semifinals spark on 13 May as Almere City hosts Willem II at Yanmar Stadion. Almere’s aggressive, goal-hungry style faces Willem II’s consistent, quietly impressive run. Two sides who, on paper, couldn’t be more even: bookmakers find them nearly inseparable. Most curious? Both are Dutch, neither has been bulletproof at home or away, yet their stats show they might not play for a draw. Marley Dors’s knack for goal-scoring, paired with Ferdy Druijf’s threat in Almere’s frontline, will test the resolve of Willem II’s defense. On the other side, Finn Stam brings set-piece danger and defensive grit. These are the players most likely to make the difference—watch how Dors’s movement and Stam’s leadership tilt the game’s rhythm.
Hot stat: Almere City have racked up 12 goals and 29 corners in their last 5 matches. This level of offensive output and chance creation is rare at this level.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Eerste Divisie 2025/26 Semifinals (Netherlands) |
| 🏟 Venue: | Yanmar Stadion, Almere |
| 🗓️ Date: | 13.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:00 CEST |
Almere City vs Willem II prediction
Best value on the board? Almere City draw no bet. Odds edge slightly in their favor, and with home support, Almere’s offensive statistics—especially those corners and shot volume—look hard to dismiss. Willem II’s unbeaten streak in the last 5 games (4 wins, 1 draw) gives them serious momentum, but their lower shot tally and corner count hint at a more reserved, perhaps reactive approach. Almere’s style—high press, regular fouls (45 in 5 games), quick transitions—generates chaos. Willem II, disciplined and physical, can be dangerous on the counter, but their tendency to collect yellows (6 in 5) and engage in midfield tussles could backfire. Expect a game with rhythm swings, fouls breaking up play, and plenty of set-piece opportunities. We think Almere’s ability to force corners and pressure opponents at home makes them a slightly better bet, but this is not a walkover—Willem II are stubborn.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Over 10.5 corners |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | 11+ |
Team Analysis
Almere City’s recent run includes convincing wins over Den Bosch (3-0 and 3-2), a hard-fought draw with De Graafschap (2-2), and just one slip against VVV-Venlo. Their latest outing, a 2-2 home draw versus De Graafschap, saw attacking intent but also defensive lapses. Jamie Jacobs and Dors continue to contribute to goals and assists, while Druijf’s finishing remains sharp. Almere’s risk-taking, both with the ball and in their tackling, results in high foul and corner counts—sometimes leaving gaps, but more often pinning opponents back.
Willem II’s recent record looks even better: unbeaten in five, with tough wins over Dordrecht and a solid AZ Alkmaar youth squad, plus a resilient 1-1 against Waalwijk. In their latest match (1-1 v Waalwijk), the side’s shape held under pressure, and Calvin Twigt’s midfield control stood out. Goals don’t flow as freely for Willem II, but they rarely collapse defensively and make the most of set-pieces—Finn Stam and Mounir El Allouchi key figures here. Their more patient buildup means fewer shots, but also fewer giveaways.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Almere City | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 2 |
| Total shots | 88 | 46 |
| Free kicks | 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks | 29 | 22 |
| Total fouls | 45 | 38 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 76% | 82% |
| Interceptions | 37 | 36 |
| Offsides | 8 | 6 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Almere City vs Willem II stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Almere City the favourite
- Moneyline Almere City 2.59 | Willem II 2.58
- Draw 3.49
- Over/Under Over 2.5 1.70 | Under 2.5 2.10
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.61 | No 2.25
Bookies split hairs—Almere City a marginal favorite, but odds for both sides hover near identical. Draw is priced higher, so markets expect someone to take the win inside 90 minutes. Over 2.5 goals is short, reflecting Almere’s aggressive stats and Willem II’s capacity to score, if not at volume. Both teams to score? Nearly expected, based on numbers. Our team thinks Almere’s home strength and attacking setup justify their favorite tag, even if by a slim margin.
Possible Starting Lineups
Almere City possible starting eleven
- GK: Tristan Kuijsten
- DF: James Lawrence, Boyd Reith, E. van de Blaak, Teun Bijleveld
- MF: Jamie Jacobs, H. el Dahri, Milan de Haan, Enzo Cornelisse
- FW: Marley Dors, Ferdy Druijf
Kuijsten is a lock between the posts, with Lawrence and van de Blaak anchoring defense. Reith and Bijleveld offer stability and passing from the back. Midfielders like Jacobs and el Dahri give Almere both drive and defensive bite; de Haan can break lines. Up top, Dors and Druijf start—these two just can’t be left out given recent scoring. Almere should stick with their 4-2-3-1 shape, maximizing transitions and wide overloads.
Willem II possible starting eleven
- GK: Thomas Didillon
- DF: Raffael Behounek, Finn Stam, Justin Hoogma, Nathan Tjoe-A-On
- MF: Gijs Besselink, Calvin Twigt, Mounir El Allouchi, Per van Loon
- FW: Devin Haen, Siegert Baartmans
Didillon’s experience is vital. Behounek and Stam marshal the back, with Hoogma and Tjoe-A-On offering width and defensive cover. Midfield is anchored by Besselink and Twigt; El Allouchi provides creativity, van Loon energy. Haen and Baartmans are likely picks up front for their work rate and recent productivity. Willem II’s expected 4-2-3-1 means a tight midfield and quick transitions—look for Twigt to influence tempo, Stam to organize at the back.
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Willem II. Source: Official X/Twitter. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We think Almere City’s home attack and shot creation will test Willem II’s resolve, but Willem II’s form means they will not go quietly. Expect high tempo, cards, lots of corners, and—honestly—a scoreline where both teams celebrate at least once. Our pick: Almere City draw no bet, over 2.5 goals, and plenty of action down the flanks. This semifinal will not go quietly into the night.
