Sofia Quijada
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Two bottom-half sides close the Clausura regular phase with little left to play for except pride and momentum. Alianza Petrolera sit 15th on 18 points, Llaneros one place and two points better off in 13th, so a single result in Valledupar could decide who finishes higher. The interesting angle here is the contrast in recent trajectories: Alianza have taken points in two of their last three home fixtures, while Llaneros just beat Junior Barranquilla after a run of five defeats in seven. The head-to-head history also leans heavily toward low-scoring football, with none of the last three meetings producing more than three goals.
Key players to watch: Misael Martinez has two goals in his last four appearances and carries Alianza’s main attacking threat, while Neider Ospina leads the Llaneros front line with ten shots across his last four outings. In goal, Eduar Esteban Restrepo has made 18 saves in five matches for the home side and Roameth Romaña has kept the away goal respectable with 11 saves in three starts.
The standout hot stat: Alianza Petrolera committed 82 fouls and collected 18 yellow cards in their last five matches, more than double the discipline numbers Llaneros posted over the same stretch.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Primera A 2026, Clausura |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau, Valledupar |
| 🗓️ Date: | 09.11.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 03:15 CEST |
Alianza Petrolera vs Llaneros prediction
We predict a 2-1 home win for Alianza Petrolera, and at average odds of 2.08 that is the best value on the board. The bookmakers price the home side at 44% win probability, which we consider generous toward Llaneros. The visitors have lost five of their last seven matches and their only two wins in that span came at home. On the road they look fragile, as the 1-4 defeat to Internacional de Bogota and the 0-3 loss to Deportivo Cali showed. Alianza’s home form is modest but steadier, with wins over Deportivo Pasto and Internacional de Bogota in recent weeks.
Style matters here. Alianza play a direct 4-2-3-1 under Flabio Torres and defend aggressively, hence the foul and card count. That physical approach slows matches down and reduces clean chances for opponents, which suits a low-scoring script. Llaneros use a 3-4-3 under Diego Corredor, looking to hit forward through Ospina and Castaneda, but their back three has been exposed repeatedly, conceding seven goals in three away defeats this stretch. Expect a scrappy midfield battle with set pieces deciding the margin.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Misael Martinez anytime scorer ⚽ |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Alianza Petrolera arrive with two wins, one draw and three defeats in their last six. The most recent outing ended 1-2 at home to Independiente Medellin, a side ranked among the Clausura’s top five, so the defeat carries an asterisk. Before that they lost narrowly to Once Caldas, then strung together a 1-0 win over Internacional de Bogota and a 1-0 win over Deportivo Pasto, plus a 2-2 draw with Aguilas Doradas. The pattern is clear: against mid-table and lower opposition Alianza grind out results, and Llaneros fit that profile. The attack produces little, five goals in five matches, but the defense holds at home.
Llaneros have been erratic, winning twice and losing five times in their last seven. Their latest result was the surprise, a 3-2 victory over Junior Barranquilla, built on sharp counterattacks and a resilient finish after conceding twice. Prior to that they fell 0-1 to Jaguares de Cordoba, were thrashed 0-3 by Deportivo Cali, edged Santa Fe 1-0, and collapsed 1-4 against Internacional de Bogota. The win over Junior proves they can score in bursts, but their away record, two goals conceded per match on the road in this run, makes backing them in Valledupar a losing proposition.
🚨Check out our dedicated Alianza Petrolera vs Llaneros stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Alianza Petrolera the favourite
- Moneyline Alianza Petrolera 2.00 | Llaneros 3.45
- Draw 3.10
The market clusters tightly around 2.08 for the home side, with Pinnacle offering the best price at 2.20. One outlier at bons lists 1.48, which we treat as noise rather than information. At 2.00 to 2.20, Alianza’s implied probability sits near 47%, slightly above the provider’s 44% model estimate, and we side with the market given the home advantage and Llaneros’ travel record. The draw at 3.10 is a live option given both teams’ low scoring output, but we prefer the home win as the primary play.
Possible Starting Lineups
Alianza Petrolera possible starting eleven
- GK: Eduar Esteban Restrepo
- DF: Pedro Franco, Juan Viveros, Jhildrey Lasso, Kevin Moreno
- MF: Jair Castillo, Wiston Fernández, Jesús Muñoz, Yeiner Londoño, Ever Meza
- FW: Misael Martinez
Torres sticks with his preferred 4-2-3-1. Restrepo keeps the gloves after 18 saves in five matches, while the back four picks itself on appearance counts, with Franco and Viveros the most used pair. Castillo and Fernández anchor the double pivot, Fernández also leading the team in shots from midfield with 11. Martinez starts up top after scoring twice in his last four, and we expect him to feed on Llaneros’ shaky back three.
Llaneros possible starting eleven
- GK: Roameth Romaña
- DF: Jhojan Escobar, Juan Pertuz, Dennys Quintero
- MF: Juan Ramirez, Juan Castilla, Marlon Sierra, Kelvin Osorio
- FW: Neider Ospina, Frank Castaneda, Joel Contreras
Corredor’s 3-4-3 stays intact after the Junior win. We give Romaña the nod in goal over Loaiza because his 11 saves in three starts offer a higher ceiling, even though Loaiza has more appearances. Escobar, Pertuz and Quintero form the most-used back three, with Escobar also chipping in a goal. Ramirez and Castilla control the midfield, and Ospina leads the line after ten shots in four games. Watch Ospina and Castaneda on the break; they are Llaneros’ only reliable route to goal.
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Llaneros. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Our main call is Alianza Petrolera to win at 2.08, backed by the head-to-head dominance, the home venue, and Llaneros’ five defeats in seven. The secondary plays are Under 2.5 goals, given that all three prior meetings stayed at or under three goals and both teams average under 1.1 goals per match in this stretch, and BTTS No, since Llaneros managed one goal across three games against this opponent. The foul-heavy profile of the home side points to a card-laden, stop-start match, which further suppresses scoring. Perhaps the visitors carry a threat on the counter after the Junior result, but one strong home performance does not fix a team that has lost 9 of 17 league matches. We expect a tight, physical 2-1 or 1-0 home victory decided by a set piece or a Martinez finish.
