Alianza Lima vs Sport Boys Predictions: Odds and betting tips for Liga 1 2026 Match - 21.02.2026

As the sun sets over Lima on February 21st, 2026, Estadio Alejandro Villanueva prepares to once again host a clash steeped in Peruvian football tradition. Alianza Lima welcome Sport Boys for a crucial Liga 1 Apertura encounter scheduled to kick off at 03:00 CEST. Set in the heart of Lima, this fixture combines Alianza’s formidable home atmosphere with the tenacious spirit of the visiting “Rosados” as both sides seek valuable points early in the campaign.
Alianza Lima, with a measured opening to their Apertura (2W, 1D, 0L), are under the tactical stewardship of Pablo Guede, whose structured 4-1-4-1 system has marshaled results against top domestic rivals. Opposing them, Sport Boys, now under the guidance of Jaime de la Pava, have found consistency hard to come by but arrive determined following a morale-boosting victory in their last outing.
Two key players to keep an eye on: For Alianza, experienced talisman Paolo Guerrero remains a focal point in attack, with 2 goals in his last 5 matches. Meanwhile, for Sport Boys, Luis Urruti’s dynamism on the left flank has often been the spark for creative incursions. Their presence on the pitch raises both the tactical ceiling and emotional tempo for their respective teams.
Hot stat: Across their last five matches, Alianza Lima have averaged an impressive 14.6 shots per game, more than double Sport Boys’ average. This aggressive offensive profile sets the tone and may well define the outcome of this contest.

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Alianza Lima vs Sport Boys predictions

Me best bet: Alianza Lima to win & Over 2.5 goals

With Alianza Lima boasting a 57% win rate in their last seven outings and an expansive attacking approach at home, there is justified confidence in a victory for the “Blanquiazules”. The predicted Over 2.5 goals is equally rational: Alianza create a high volume of chances, and Sport Boys’ vulnerability in defense—conceding seven goals across their last five—suggests an open game. Moreover, Paolo Guerrero’s form in front of goal, paired with creative supply lines from midfield, primes the hosts for a multi-goal display and possibly a convincing margin.
Disciplinary factors add further flavor: Alianza Lima have accumulated 12 yellow cards in their last five games, reflecting a physical presence that could halt Sport Boys’ rhythm but also risk exposure on the break. Sport Boys, with only 6 yellows in the same span, may attempt to leverage this by keeping transitions swift. In terms of possession, Alianza Lima’s pass accuracy of 66% surpasses Sport Boys’ 54%, suggesting greater control and likelihood of dictating tempo. Corner situations (Alianza: 22, Sport Boys: 13 in last five) further highlight Alianza’s territorial dominance which often translates into set-piece opportunities.

Prop picks by me:

• ⚽Total Goals: Over 2.5
• 💥Both Teams To Score: Yes
• 🎯Total Corners: Over 9

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Alianza Lima vs Sport Boys Most recent H2Hs

In their three most recent meetings, Alianza Lima have enjoyed a clear upper hand, winning all encounters and outscoring Sport Boys 7 to 1. The dominance is especially notable in shot creation and ball retention, as well as set-piece threats. Sport Boys have struggled to establish control, evidenced by lower pass accuracy and far fewer corners. Each match reinforced the pattern: Alianza setting the rhythm, Sport Boys forced to chase and rarely able to exploit defensive lapses.
🚨Read our full Alianza Lima vs Sport Boys stats for more analysis.

Key Stats

• Alianza Lima average 14.6 total shots per match in their last five games, while Sport Boys average just 8.4.
• Blanquiazules have scored at least two goals in four of their last six competitive fixtures.
• Sport Boys have failed to score in three of their last six away trips.
• Alianza Lima’s Paulo Guerrero is responsible for 40% of the team’s goals this season.
• Both teams seen over 2.5 goals in 60% of their combined matches so far this year.

Alianza Lima vs Sport Boys score prediction: 3-1

Expect Alianza to set the tempo early, leveraging both Paolo Guerrero’s finishing and a cohesive pressing structure that forces turnovers in midfield. While Sport Boys may find a breakthrough off quick counters—perhaps through Luis Urruti’s direct runs—sustained pressure from the home side points to at least a two-goal winning margin. Defensive leadership from Renzo Garcés and the midfield control of Fernando Gaibor are likely to provide the solid foundation for victory, with Guerrero and Alan Martín Cantero spearheading the attack.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Alianza Lima the favourite

The bookmakers’ odds strongly favour Alianza Lima, reflecting their superior form, home advantage, and structural consistency under Pablo Guede. Sport Boys’ long odds (8.40) underline the narrative: upsets are rare when facing such a well-drilled Alianza on their turf, especially early in the season. Over/Under markets suggest expectations of an open game, aligning well with both teams’ recent trend for multi-goal contests.

Alianza Lima vs Sport Boys Over/Under Analysis

• 4 of Alianza Lima’s last 6 home fixtures have finished with over 2.5 goals.
• Sport Boys have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 away games.
• Both teams have scored in 4 of their last 6 meetings.
• Hot tip: Look for first half over 1.0 goals—Alianza typically start strong at home.

Alianza Lima Preview

Alianza Lima’s recent results underscore a team both proactive and defensively sound. Their last match against Alianza Atletico ended in a cagey 0-0 draw, but the “Blanquiazules” controlled the pace with 11 total shots, 5 corners, and a nearly 70% pass completion rate. Previous contests highlighted essential contributors: Paolo Guerrero has delivered in key moments, while the midfield trio of Alessandro Burlamaqui, Fernando Gaibor, and Pedro Aquino provide balance and ball recovery. The back line—anchored by Renzo Garcés and Mateo Antoni Pavon—has limited opponents to just 2 goals in three games, reflecting the team’s commitment to organized transitions.

Alianza Lima possible starting eleven

Sport Boys Preview

Sport Boys have experienced a mixed recent run, with just one win in their last five matches. Their most recent encounter saw a narrow, hard-fought 1-0 win over Atlético Grau—secured via a disciplined defensive performance and clever use of second-half substitutions. However, they have struggled to consistently generate chances—only 42 total shots in five games—and often allow opponents to dominate possession. Luis Urruti and Jostin Alarcón offer the brightest attacking promise, and the midfield will rely on Federico Illanes and Hernán Da Campo for structure. Their defensive unit, featuring Hansell Riojas and Sebastián Aranda, remains under pressure due to frequent turnovers and limited pass completion.

Sport Boys possible starting eleven

Our prediction: Who Wins?

Based on form, squad balance, and recent performances, Alianza Lima are our main pick to win this matchup. The home side’s offensive firepower, greater squad cohesion, and tactical maturity give them a distinct advantage—especially in front of their passionate fans. Our dedicated AI prediction engine gives Alianza Lima a 68% winning probability, a fair reflection of both teams’ structural realities and the statisticians’ consensus. Sport Boys may have their moments—Urruti and Alarcón can trouble defences in transition—but overall, the hosts are better equipped to control proceedings and capitalize on their chances.

How to watch Alianza Lima vs Sport Boys

When?
Kick-off: 21.02.2026, 03:00 CEST
Where?
Estadio Alejandro Villanueva, Lima
How to watch: Liga 1 television broadcasts (local), popular online streaming portals, and radio coverage countrywide.
Favorite: Alianza Lima

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