Sofia Quijada
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Matchday 3 of La Liga 2026/2027 brings a genuinely interesting fixture at Mendizorroza, where Alavés sit third in the table after a win and a draw, while Villarreal have yet to win in two league outings, both ending level. Quique Sánchez Flores has his side punching above their ranking so far, and Iñigo Pérez’s Villarreal will be eager to convert their draws into points before the gap to the top widens. The Yellow Submarine’s 2-2 draw with Atlético Madrid in their most recent outing shows they can compete with strong opposition, but conceding four goals in two games will concern their defensive unit heading into this trip north.
Mariano Díaz has been the standout performer for Alavés in recent weeks, scoring twice and registering two assists across his last two appearances, making him the most direct attacking threat Villarreal will need to account for. For the visitors, Georges Mikautadze leads all players in shots (13 across three matches) and has two goals to his name, making him the focal point of Villarreal’s attack.
Hot stat: Villarreal have taken 46 shots across their last five matches compared to Alavés’s 33, a 39% difference in volume that underlines the gap in attacking output between these two sides.
| 🏆 Tournament: | La Liga 2026/2027, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz |
| 🗓️ Date: | 28.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:30 CEST |
Alavés vs Villarreal Prediction
Villarreal are the bookmakers’ favourite at around 42% win probability, and that assessment is reasonable given their world ranking advantage (38 vs 103) and superior attacking output. Alavés’s strong home start (a 3-0 win over Getafe followed by a draw with Rayo Vallecano) gives them genuine grounds for optimism, but Villarreal’s depth and passing volume make them difficult to suppress for 90 minutes.
The best value here sits with Villarreal on the moneyline, particularly at odds around 2.20-2.35. Alavés have been defensively solid at home, but Villarreal’s front line, led by Mikautadze and supported by Pérez and Pépé, produces enough volume to test any backline. We predict Villarreal to take all three points, though the margin may be tight given Alavés’s home form.
Alavés play a 4-2-3-1 that prioritises defensive compactness and direct transitions, which is reflected in their relatively low pass count (694 across five matches). They commit fouls at a moderate rate (29 in five games) with six yellow cards, suggesting a disciplined but physical approach. Villarreal’s 4-4-2 generates far more possession (1,473 passes, 52 fouls, seven yellows), meaning they press high and accept more contact to win the ball back. The combination of Villarreal’s aggression and Alavés’s counter-attacking tendencies makes a physical, foul-heavy midfield battle likely, which could open up set-piece opportunities on both sides.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Villarreal to score in both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Alavés have been in strong form across the last 30 days, winning three of five matches without a single defeat. Their last two La Liga outings produced a 3-0 demolition of Getafe and a 1-1 draw with Rayo Vallecano, the latter coming in their most recent outing. The Getafe result in particular showed their clinical edge on home soil, with Mariano Díaz and Mikel Rodríguez contributing goals. Across the last five matches, they have scored four goals with 33 shots, keeping the squad compact and efficient rather than dominant in possession. Their 12 corners and 24 free kicks in five games also show they create danger from set pieces regularly.
Villarreal arrive at Mendizorroza having drawn all three of their most recent competitive fixtures. Their last result was a 2-2 draw with Atlético Madrid, a match that showed both their attacking quality and defensive vulnerability. Mikautadze and Pépé have been the most productive players, combining for three goals across recent matches. The 2-1 win over Galatasaray in a pre-season friendly and a 1-0 victory over Levante show they can close out games when needed, but conceding in their last four matches is a pattern Iñigo Pérez must address. Their pass accuracy of 1,320 out of 1,473 attempts (roughly 90%) reflects a side that dominates with the ball but can be exposed when they lose it high up the pitch.
🚨Check out our dedicated Alavés vs Villarreal stats page for more info.
The last four meetings between these sides tell a clear story: Villarreal have scored seven goals to Alavés’s three, winning two of the four encounters. Alavés’s solitary victory came in March 2025 (1-0), but that result looks like an outlier given the Yellow Submarine’s dominance in the other three fixtures, including a 3-0 win in November 2024. Villarreal’s head-to-head record at this ground and across recent seasons gives them a meaningful psychological edge.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Villarreal the Favourite
- Moneyline Alavés 3.11 | Villarreal 2.30
- Draw 3.63
Pinnacle’s lines are the sharpest here and reflect the market consensus well. Villarreal at 2.30 offers genuine value when weighed against their attacking quality and the head-to-head record. The draw at 3.63 is tempting given Villarreal’s recent run of draws, but Alavés at home with Mariano Díaz in form means both teams scoring looks like the more reliable angle. We prefer the Villarreal win combined with BTTS as the primary value play in this fixture.
Possible Starting Lineups
Alavés Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Antonio Sivera
- DF: Nahuel Tenaglia, Ville Koski, Jonny Otto, Youssef Enriquez
- MF: Antonio Blanco, Pablo Ibáñez Lumbreras, Denis Suárez, Carles Aleñá
- FW: Toni Martínez, Mariano Díaz
Quique Sánchez Flores has settled into a 4-2-3-1 shape, with Blanco and Ibáñez Lumbreras forming a disciplined double pivot. Sivera starts in goal after logging 180 minutes across the last two matches. Mariano Díaz is the name to watch: two goals and two assists in two games make him the clear danger man, and Villarreal’s defence will need to track him tightly. Tenaglia has also contributed a goal from right back and adds an attacking dimension from deep.
Villarreal Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Luíz Lúcio Reis Júnior
- DF: Juan Foyth, Renato Veiga, Carlos Romero, Álvaro Santiago Mouriño González
- MF: Santi Comesaña, Pape Gueye, Tajon Buchanan, Alberto Moleiro
- FW: Georges Mikautadze, Nicolas Pépé
Iñigo Pérez has been consistent with his 4-4-2, deploying Mikautadze and Pépé as the front two. Luíz Lúcio Reis Júnior has started all three recent matches in goal and made six saves. Mikautadze is the key figure with 13 shots and two goals in three games, and Pépé provides the combination play that unlocks defences. Gueye adds a physical presence in midfield and carries a goal threat from box-to-box runs. Foyth and Renato Veiga anchor a back four that has been tested but remains largely intact across recent fixtures.
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Alaves. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Villarreal’s head-to-head dominance, superior squad depth, and attacking output across recent matches all point toward a away win at Mendizorroza. Alavés have been impressive early in the season and Mariano Díaz gives them a genuine goal threat, meaning a clean sheet for Villarreal is unlikely. We predict Villarreal to win in a match where both teams score, with the final scoreline landing somewhere around 1-2 or 2-3. The Over 2.5 goals market and BTTS Yes represent the strongest value plays, backed by both teams’ inability to keep clean sheets in recent outings and the head-to-head pattern of high-scoring encounters between these two sides.
