Alavés vs Villarreal Predictions: Odds and betting tips for La Liga Match - 13.03.2026

La Liga’s relentless drama returns as Deportivo Alavés hosts Villarreal CF at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz, on 13 March 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 22:00 CEST. As we enter the heart of the regular season, the stakes intensify for both sides: Alavés fighting to distance themselves from the relegation zone, and Villarreal locked in a fierce battle for Champions League qualification. Not only does this Thursday night clash promise tactical intrigue, but it also offers a stage for key figures to shape the season’s narrative.

For Alavés, Lucas Boyé remains the focal point of the attack, having netted four goals in his last five outings—an impressive output given Alavés’ collective struggles. Villarreal, under the guidance of Marcelino, will look to the dynamism of Pape Gueye in midfield and the clinical edge of Georges Mikautadze, who has struck twice recently, to gain control.

A “hot stat” to watch: Villarreal have accumulated 47 interceptions across their last five matches, nearly double Alavés’ 28, underlining their defensive anticipation and transition threat.

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Alavés vs Villarreal predictions

Me best bet: Villarreal to win.
The Yellow Submarine enters Mendizorroza as clear favourites, boasting a robust away record and a 67 percent win rate in their last six matches. Alavés, winless in the last five and labouring in 16th, find themselves susceptible to Villarreal’s pace and efficiency in transition. Villarreal’s midfield, led by Santi Comesaña and empowered by Pape Gueye’s recent form (two goals, one assist in five games), provides both defensive stability and creative thrust. Mikautadze’s composure in the box could tip the balance.

In terms of disciplinary and stylistic trends, Alavés average 8 yellow cards in their last five contests—higher than Villarreal’s 11, but notably, Villarreal’s additional bookings come with heightened pressing and interceptions (47 to 28). Both teams maintain a pass accuracy around 64 percent, but Villarreal’s 57 total shots compared to Alavés’ 56, coupled with a superior corner count, hints at their greater offensive intent. Expect Villarreal’s pressing to disrupt Alavés’ buildup while avoiding excessive risk.

• ⚽Total Goals: Over 2.5
• 💥Both Teams To Score: Yes
• 🎯Total Corners: Over 8.5

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Alavés vs Villarreal Most recent H2Hs

Historically, Villarreal have held the upper hand, winning two of the last three La Liga duels (including a 3-1 away win in their latest encounter). Their tactical discipline and ability to absorb pressure before counter-attacking have been decisive. Alavés, by contrast, rely primarily on moments of individual brilliance but struggle to withstand sustained pressure, as evidenced in the recent 3-1 defeat.

🚨Read our full Alavés vs Villarreal stats for more analysis.

Key Stats

• Villarreal boast a 67 percent win rate in the last 30 days compared to Alavés’ 0 percent.
• Lucas Boyé has accounted for 80 percent of Alavés’ last five goals.
• Villarreal average 9.4 interceptions per game in their last five (best in La Liga).
• Alavés have not kept a clean sheet in their last five home matches.
• Villarreal’s latest three victories have come vs teams in the league’s bottom half.

Alavés vs Villarreal score prediction: 1-2

Expect a hard-fought contest shaped by Alavés’ desperate circumstances and Villarreal’s European ambitions. Mikautadze and Gueye’s interplay could carve open Alavés’ central defence, while Boyé remains Alavés’ primary threat on the counter. Both sides have shown defensive vulnerabilities—particularly from set pieces—suggesting goals at both ends. However, the technical prowess and squad depth of Villarreal should prove decisive.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Villarreal the favourite

The odds reflect Villarreal’s proven form, tactical discipline, and offensive options. Their status as favourites is justified by both recent results and head-to-head dominance. Alavés’ unpredictable offence is factored in, which is why the market leans toward both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals as plausible outcomes.

Alavés vs Villarreal Over/Under Analysis

• Four of Villarreal’s last six away matches have seen over 2.5 goals.
• Alavés conceded 2+ goals in three of their last five matches.
• Both teams scored in each of Alavés’ last three home games.
• Villarreal have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last four away games.
• Over 8.5 corners landed in four of the last five H2H encounters.

Alavés Preview

Alavés approach this fixture in grim form: winless in their last five, including a narrow 2-3 home defeat to Valencia. Quique Sánchez Flores has experimented with shapes but primarily deploys a 4-4-2 seeking compactness. Boyé’s individual exploits offer glimmers of hope, but a slow midfield build-up and vulnerability to quick transitions have cost them dearly. Defensive lapses—particularly from set pieces—were evident against Valencia and Levante. An aggressive approach is likely, but the risk of exposure on the flanks remains high.

Villarreal Preview

Villarreal come into the contest buoyed by four wins in their last six matches, including a tight 2-1 victory over Elche. Marcelino demands verticality and quick ball recovery, with Gueye marauding through midfield and Mikautadze and Pépé providing attacking variety. Although issues persist at the back—particularly against pace—Villarreal’s offensive organization and pressing structure give them an edge versus lower-ranked opposition. Another notable asset is the attacking support from wingbacks like Alfonso Pedraza and Pau Navarro.

Our prediction: Who Wins?

This fixture favours Villarreal, whose blend of creative midfield play and aggressive pressing should wear down the hosts. Our AI prediction engine gives Villarreal a 44 percent chance of victory, with a draw at 28 percent and Alavés at 28 percent. Expect Alavés to fight valiantly—especially with Boyé up front—but Villarreal’s talent and cohesion should ultimately eke out a narrow, high-stakes win.

How to watch Alavés vs Villarreal

• When? 13.03.2026 – Kick-off at 22:00 CEST
• Where? Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
• How to watch: Broadcast details TBC; typically available via La Liga TV, regional sports networks, and select streaming platforms.
• Favourite: Villarreal

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