Alavés vs Real Sociedad Predictions: Odds and betting tips for Copa Del Rey Quarterfinal Match - 04.02.2026

The Copa Del Rey 2025/26 quarterfinal promises a compelling fixture as Deportivo Alavés welcome Real Sociedad to the iconic Estadio de Mendizorroza in Vitoria-Gasteiz on February 4th, 2026. Kick-off is set for 21:00 CEST, with both Basque sides poised to advance on the path to domestic glory. Under the bright lights of this historic stadium, football becomes more than competition—it is tradition, pride, and the pulse of the Spanish sporting calendar.

Key players to watch include Alavés’ dynamic forward Toni Martínez, whose recent scoring form has driven their cup ambitions, and Real Sociedad’s talismanic captain Mikel Oyarzabal, who consistently delivers both goals and creative leadership. With two teams built on tactical discipline—Alavés’ pragmatic 4-4-2 against Real Sociedad’s fluid 4-2-3-1—the battle in midfield and transition play will be crucial. Notably, Real Sociedad’s thrilling 6-5 shootout victory over Osasuna earlier in the campaign stands as the “hot stat,” underlining their unpredictable attacking firepower.

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Alavés vs Real Sociedad predictions

My best bet: Both Teams To Score – Yes.

This prediction stems from the offensive momentum displayed by both sides in their recent outings: Alavés have found the net seven times in their last five matches, while Real Sociedad have struck ten. Real Sociedad’s matches are particularly open, averaging over two goals per game across their recent fixtures, showcasing attacking intent, especially with Oyarzabal and Guedes in peak form. Alavés, resilient at home under Eduardo Coudet, are clinical on set pieces and have proven capable of breaking down well-structured defences.

In stylistic terms, Alavés adopt a combative approach—averaging 13 fouls per match alongside 8 yellow cards in their last five games—but maintain solid discipline, having avoided red cards. Their pressing intensity leads to turnovers (31 interceptions). Real Sociedad, meanwhile, are just as robust (15 offsides, 64 total fouls), yet more technically assured, with a slightly higher pass accuracy and a willingness to push fullbacks high, which can leave spaces at the back. In this chess match, both sides’ attacking edges should outweigh defensive solidity.

Prop picks by me:

• ⚽Total Goals: Over 2.5
• 💥Both Teams To Score: Yes
• 🎯Total Corners: Over 9.5

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Alavés vs Real Sociedad Most recent H2Hs

Recent meetings between these Basque neighbours have been tight, tactical, and fiercely contested. In four encounters across league and cup in the past two seasons, Alavés have edged the head-to-head by securing two wins and two draws, with the biggest margin a single goal difference. Both sides average over 1.5 goals per meeting, highlighting attacking hunger, but matches remain physically demanding and technically astute, as seen by the similar stats in possession, passing, and defensive actions. Expect another finely balanced battle in this quarterfinal stage.

🚨Read our full Alavés vs Real Sociedad stats for more analysis.

Key Stats

• Real Sociedad are unbeaten in their last 6 competitive matches (W4 D2).
• Alavés have won their last 2 home fixtures in the Copa Del Rey.
• Both teams average at least 13 shots per match over their last 5 games.
• Between both squads, only 1 red card has been shown in the previous 10 matches.
• Real Sociedad’s Mikel Oyarzabal has 3 goals in his last 5 appearances.

Alavés vs Real Sociedad score prediction: 1-2

The forecast is a narrow 2-1 victory for Real Sociedad. While Alavés’ home form and fighting spirit are factors not to be underestimated—bolstered by Toni Martínez who will spearhead their attack—Real Sociedad’s collective quality, tactical maturity, and Oyarzabal’s consistent contributions should tip the scales. Expect Guedes and Zubeldia to be involved in decisive moments. Alavés’ direct play and set piece threat will ensure a tense affair, but Sociedad’s experience at this level could prove decisive in the dying moments.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Real Sociedad the favourite

The odds underscore Real Sociedad’s slight favourite status, with most bookmakers offering a narrower margin than a true home-field advantage would suggest. Alavés’ win odds hover around 3.00, a testament to their resilience, but Sociedad’s form and unbeaten run drive their edge. Over 2.5 goals at around 2.17 is attractive considering both sides’ attacking output, while Both Teams To Score is priced evenly, aligning with the offensive undercurrents of recent meetings.

Alavés vs Real Sociedad Over/Under Analysis

• 4 of the last 5 combined matches for these teams saw over 2.5 goals.
• Both have scored in every one of their last 5 Copa Del Rey fixtures.
• Sociedad games average 3.2 goals per match in this competition.
• Early goals have been a feature (3 of last 5 saw goals before minute 30).
• Expect a high corner count as both sides average over 4.5 corners per game.

Alavés Preview

Alavés arrive with momentum, fresh from a gutsy 2-1 victory over RCD Espanyol in the most recent round, showcasing both resilience and measured attacking combinations. Coudet’s men have won three of their last six matches, building confidence through solid home performances. Their 4-4-2 formation prioritizes defensive solidity but allows quick transitions, leveraging Martínez’s and Boyé’s finishing. Set-piece routines have brought dividends, while the midfield pivot led by Pablo Ibanez Lumbreras provides balance between aggression and organization.

Alavés possible starting eleven

Real Sociedad Preview

On the opposite side, Real Sociedad approach this quarterfinal in imposing form. They are unbeaten in their last six, highlighted by a tactical 1-1 draw against Athletic Bilbao and a statement 2-1 win against Barcelona. Coach Pellegrino Matarazzo’s 4-2-3-1 system emphasizes multifaceted build-up play, wing overloads, and vertical passing to Oyarzabal and Guedes. Defensive discipline is paired with attacking speed, helping them both open up packed defences and transition rapidly. Their last five games delivered ten goals, with an average of two per game, underscoring clinical finishing and creativity in the final third.

Real Sociedad possible starting eleven

Our prediction: Who Wins?

As a TipsGG expert, my analytics and contextual reading favour Real Sociedad for this tie. Their depth, consistent run, and ability to impose their style give them a 41% predicted win probability (as per our dedicated AI prediction engine), compared to 28% for Alavés and 31% for a draw. Sociedad’s experience in navigating high-pressure knockout games, particularly with difference-makers like Oyarzabal and Méndez, stands out, though Alavés will make it a contest worthy of the quarterfinal label.

How to watch Alavés vs Real Sociedad

• When? 04 February 2026, Kick-off 21:00 CEST.
• Where? Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz.
• How to watch: DAZN, Movistar+ and regional broadcasters (Spain); global streaming available through official Copa Del Rey partners.
• Favourite: Real Sociedad

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