Alavés vs Real Madrid Predictions: Odds and betting tips for La Liga - 14.12.2025

On an electric Sunday night at Brann Stadion in Bergen, Alavés host Real Madrid in a La Liga 2025/26 regular-season encounter scheduled for 22:00 CEST, December 14, 2025. This clash brings together an industrious mid-table side against a continental giant, both vying for critical points as the league approaches its midpoint. For Alavés, managed by Eduardo Coudet, the focus rests on home resilience and springing a surprise; for Xabi Alonso’s Real Madrid, every fixture is a must-win in their relentless pursuit of Barcelona atop the standings.

The venue itself is a departure from the familiar, with Bergen’s Brann Stadion offering Norwegian winter air a factor possibly influencing both technical displays and player stamina.

Among the notable talents on display, Real Madrid’s Kylian Mbappé fresh from a seven-goal show in his last five outings and Alavés’ dynamic forward Lucas Boyé (one goal in recent matches) should dictate much of the attacking narrative. Keep eyes on Real’s dynamic midfielder Jude Bellingham and Alavés’ versatile Pablo Ibanez Lumbreras, both capable of influencing the tempo on either side of the ball.

A “hot stat” framing the matchup: Real Madrid have fired 92 total shots in their last five matches, underlining their intent and ability to dominate proceedings in the final third.

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Alavés vs Real Madrid predictions

My best bet: Backing Real Madrid to win and Over 2.5 total goals stands out here. The rationale? Real Madrid’s offensive firepower anchored by Kylian Mbappé and supported by creative hubs like Bellingham and Rodrygo has simply overwhelmed all but the most elite opposition. Alavés, though organized and gritty under Coudet, have conceded 15 goals in 15 outings, and their high defensive workload (38 interceptions in the last five) will likely be stretched to the limit. Furthermore, Real’s recent efficiency in set-pieces (three goals from corners in five games) gives them multiple avenues for scoring.

Both teams bring contrasting styles to the table. Real Madrid combine patient buildup 2,527 completed passes at an 89 percent accuracy in their last five with lethal transition play, while Alavés rely on energetic pressing, evidenced by high foul counts (17 in five matches) and 38 interceptions. Alavés’ style risks yellow cards (10 booked in last five), which could disrupt their rhythm and open spaces for Real’s quality to exploit. Ball possession is expected to tilt toward Real, forcing Alavés into a reactive posture.

• ⚽Total Goals: Over 2.5
• 💥Both Teams To Score: Yes
• 🎯Total Corners: Over 8.5

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Alavés vs Real Madrid Most recent H2Hs

The last two head-to-head La Liga battles both tipped in Real Madrid’s favor, though not without spirited Alavés resistance. A tight 1-0 win for Madrid in the previous campaign and a thrilling 3-2 away win highlight Alavés’ ability to frustrate and counter. Notably, Real Madrid’s superior shot volume and passing accuracy proved decisive in breaking down Alavés’ defensive block.

🚨Read our full Alavés vs Real Madrid stats for more analysis.

Key Stats

• Real Madrid averaged 18.4 shots per game in their last five matches league-best mark.
• Kylian Mbappé scored 7 goals in his past 5 appearances.
• Alavés have scored in three of their last five La Liga matches, but only once managed multiple goals.
• Madrid’s pass accuracy (86 percent) in H2H is notably superior.
• Alavés have picked up at least two yellow cards in every H2H over the last two seasons.

Alavés vs Real Madrid score prediction: 1-3

Real Madrid’s relentless attacking, coupled with Mbappé’s current form, should result in multiple goals. Alavés’ direct approach may earn them opportunities, particularly from set pieces, but the technical gap is considerable. Expect Lucas Boyé to threaten on the counter, yet Madrid’s defensive line, marshaled by Rüdiger and Courtois, should mostly limit Alavés’ output.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Real Madrid the favourite

Bookmakers rate Real Madrid as strong favorites (59 percent AI probability), reflecting both their superior personnel and recent run of form. Alavés, at over 5.5 for the win, are clear underdogs but not without hope, especially if they remain defensively compact and find an early goal. The value in the draw (4.00) is evident given Alavés’ home advantage, but Real’s depth and attacking options ultimately tip the scales.

Alavés vs Real Madrid Over/Under Analysis

• 4 of Madrid’s last 6 games featured over 2.5 goals.
• Alavés have only managed Over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5 matches.
• Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 H2Hs.
• Madrid’s attacking trends and Alavés’ defensive lapses point towards another high-scoring contest.
• Corner counts typically high when Madrid play away expect 9+ total corners.

Alavés Preview

Recent performances for Alavés have seen a mix of promise and frustration. Their last three outings: a composed 1-0 win over Real Sociedad, a decisive 3-0 cup victory over Portugalete, and a 1-3 reverse against Barcelona, demonstrate both defensive discipline and attacking limitations. In particular, the resilience against Sociedad showcased their ability to absorb pressure and strike efficiently on the counter, while the struggles versus top sides like Barcelona underline a lack of consistency against higher-caliber opposition. Maintaining shape, reducing mistakes, and capitalizing on set-pieces will be crucial if Alavés are to trouble Madrid.

Alavés possible starting eleven

Real Madrid Preview

Real Madrid, undefeated in their last four league fixtures, are coming off a tight 1-2 away defeat to Manchester City in continental play a match that nonetheless saw periods of attacking dominance. Their La Liga journey, with a recent 3-0 win over Athletic Bilbao and a 1-1 draw versus Girona, has been defined by fluid attacking movements and a revitalized midfield under Xabi Alonso. Kylian Mbappé headlines the attack, ably supported by the creative influence of Jude Bellingham, Valverde’s energy, and the security of Thibaut Courtois in goal. Despite minor defensive lapses, Madrid’s squad depth and tactical clarity remain unrivaled in the division.

Real Madrid possible starting eleven

The Verdict

As a TipsGG expert, the evidence overwhelmingly favors Real Madrid my main pick for this La Liga encounter. Madrid’s multidimensional attacking threat and tactical flexibility should overcome an industrious, but ultimately limited Alavés side. Expect possession dominance, territorial advantage, and quality chances created from both open play and set pieces. Our dedicated AI prediction engine assigns Madrid a 59 percent win probability, capturing both historical trends and the current dynamics.

How to watch Alavés vs Real Madrid

When?
Kick-off: 14 December 2025, 22:00 CEST
Where?
Brann Stadion, Bergen
How to watch: La LigaTV, regional streaming services, major international football broadcasters
Favourite: Real Madrid

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