Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano Predictions: Odds and betting tips for Copa Del Rey - 14.01.2026

The historic Estadio de Mendizorroza in Vitoria-Gasteiz is set to stage an engrossing Copa Del Rey Round of 16 encounter as Alavés host Rayo Vallecano on January 14, 2026, with kick-off slated for 22:00 CEST. The magic of the Copa is alive and well in the Basque Country, with both teams eager to inscribe their name in the quarterfinals of Spain’s storied domestic competition. With Alavés seeking a resurgence under Eduardo Coudet and Rayo Vallecano showing confident form under Iñigo Pérez, this battle offers both tactical intrigue and the potential for drama.

Among many faces to watch, the performance of Alavés’ forward Carlos Vicente prolific with 2 goals in his last 5 games and Rayo Vallecano’s midfield anchor Florian Lejeune, with 1 goal and a commanding 308 passes in recent outings, could have outsized influence on the outcome.

A “hot stat” emerges from Rayo Vallecano: They have netted 9 goals in their last five matches, more than double Alavés’ output in the same stretch a sign of growing attacking fluency that could tip the balance.

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Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano predictions

Me best bet: Both Teams to Score – Yes. Rayo Vallecano enter with offensive confidence, having scored in every one of their last five outings. Alavés have struggled defensively conceding eight goals in their last three matches but remain capable of striking at home, particularly through the dynamic Carlos Vicente and Toni Martínez. Considering Rayo’s propensity for sharing the goalscoring load between forwards and advanced midfielders, and Alavés’ need to attack in front of their supporters, all signs indicate both sides should find the net.

In terms of tactical disposition, Alavés often employ a 4-1-4-1 system designed for quick defensive transitions yet occasionally leaves gaps against teams willing to press high. Their physical approach averaging 12.6 fouls and 1.8 yellow cards per match signals a readiness to disrupt opposition rhythm, though discipline could become an issue. Rayo Vallecano, lining up in a balanced 4-4-2, demonstrate effective width and flexibility. Their slightly superior ball control (pass accuracy 83.0percent vs Alavés’ 80.4percent), combined with a respectable average of 16 shots per match, positions them to challenge Alavés both through the middle and on the flanks.

• ⚽Total Goals: Over 2.5
• 💥Both Teams To Score: Yes
• 🎯Total Corners: Over 7.5

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Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano Most recent H2Hs

Across their last three meetings, Rayo Vallecano have claimed a clean sweep without conceding a single goal triumphing 1-0, 2-0, and again 1-0. The margins, while narrow, reflect Rayo’s ability to capitalise on key moments, particularly against an Alavés side whose attacking efforts have too often fizzled in the final third. Noticeably, Rayo’s defensive focus has allowed them to weather spells of pressure without sacrificing structural integrity.

🚨Read our full Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano stats for more analysis.

Key Stats

• Rayo Vallecano are unbeaten in their last five away matches across all competitions.
• Alavés have conceded the first goal in each of their last four matches.
• Rayo have scored 9 goals in their last five games, compared to Alavés’ 4.
• Both teams have averaged over 5 corners per game recently (Alavés 28, Rayo 28 in 5 matches).
• Rayo Vallecano have not lost to Alavés in any competition since 2024.

Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano score prediction: 1-2

Expect Rayo Vallecano to continue their ascendancy with a 2-1 win. Florian Lejeune’s passing from deep and the incisive play of Álvaro García pose distinct threats for Alavés’ reorganizing defence. Alavés will look to Carlos Vicente for a response, but unless their defensive line tightens appreciably, Rayo’s momentum and tactical discipline favour another narrow victory.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Alavés the favourite

Despite Rayo’s better recent form and historical edge, bookmakers narrowly favour Alavés due to home advantage and pivotal cup experience, yet the odds remain tight a testament to the perceived balance and unpredictability of this fixture. The value in BTTS and Over 2.5 is hard to ignore, given both sides’ recent scoring rates and inconsistency at the back.

Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano Over/Under Analysis

• Four of Alavés’ last five matches have seen over 2.5 total goals.
• Rayo Vallecano have scored at least twice in three of their last five matches.
• Neither side managed a clean sheet in more than two of the last five games.
• Over 7 corners in each of the last three H2H encounters.

Alavés Preview

Alavés’ recent trajectory is mixed at best. After a gritty 1-1 away draw at Real Oviedo, they suffered a 1-3 home defeat to Villarreal and fell 0-3 at Osasuna. Defensive lapses underscored by conceding eight goals in three games have placed extra pressure on their midfield pivot, though the likes of Carlos Vicente and Toni Martínez remain attacking sparks. Their single win in the last five, a 1-0 triumph over Sevilla, suggested resilience but was not enough to reshape their overall trend. Consistency remains elusive, particularly against well-organised opposition.

Alavés possible starting eleven

Rayo Vallecano Preview

Rayo Vallecano’s recent run reflects a team in the ascent. A comprehensive 2-1 victory over Mallorca followed an impressive 3-1 success against Granada and a 1-1 draw with Getafe. Their attacking unit, marshalled by Florian Lejeune in a deep playmaking role and Álvaro García’s direct running, has driven their average up to 1.8 goals per game across the last month. Coach Iñigo Pérez has instilled better defensive balance, evident in their ability to manage high-pressure spells and transition swiftly between lines. Confidence in front of goal spread across midfield and attack augurs well for this cup fixture.

Rayo Vallecano possible starting eleven

The Verdict

As the Tips.GG expert, our main pick is a narrow Rayo Vallecano victory winning probability 39 percent by our dedicated AI engine. Despite slightly weaker bookmaker odds, Rayo’s consistent scoring, superior H2H record, and midfield dynamism give them the edge. Alavés’ home support and urgency could keep things close, but the visitors’ balanced threat and defensive organisation make them our preferred pick to advance.

How to watch Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano

When? January 14, 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Where? Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz.
How to watch: Official Copa Del Rey broadcasters: RTVE, Movistar+, and regional streaming platforms.
Favorite: Alavés

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