Sofia Quijada
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Two of La Liga’s early season surprises meet at Estadio de Mendizorroza on Matchday 4. Both Alavés and Osasuna sit on 7 points after three games, making this a direct clash between fifth and sixth place. Alavés have been the more defensively solid side, conceding just one goal so far, and Quique Sánchez Flores has his team playing compact, structured football. Luis Miguel Ramis brings Osasuna in on the back of a winning run in La Liga, though their European and cup form has been inconsistent. Watch Mariano Díaz for Alavés, who has contributed 2 goals and 2 assists in just 97 minutes across his last five appearances, and Ante Budimir for Osasuna, the Croatian striker leading their attack with 2 goals and 9 shots in three recent matches.
A hot stat to flag: Alavés have scored 5 goals from just 42 total shots across their last five matches, a conversion rate that outpaces Osasuna’s 3 goals from 35 shots in the same period.
| 🏆 Tournament: | La Liga 2026/2027, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz |
| 🗓️ Date: | 06.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:30 CEST |
Alavés vs Osasuna Prediction
Alavés are the better-value pick to win this match. Their home record in La Liga this season is clean, they have conceded just once in three games, and their last 30 days show three wins and two draws with zero losses. Osasuna, to be honest, look more vulnerable away from home, having lost twice in five recent matches. The 5-3-2 shape Alavés deploy makes them hard to break down, and Osasuna’s 4-4-2 will need to create width to find gaps.
Alavés averaged 9 yellow cards and 44 fouls across five matches, showing they are physical and aggressive in their pressing. Osasuna are slightly less foul-heavy at 42, but their pass accuracy of 82% (1021 accurate passes from 1240) is significantly higher than Alavés’ 79% (703 from 890). That possession advantage could help Osasuna control periods of the game, yet Alavés’ interceptions total of 34 to Osasuna’s 25 suggests the home side wins the ball back more often. The combination of home advantage, tighter defensive record, and recent momentum makes Alavés the preferred side.
- We predict Alavés to win this match.
- The match is likely to stay low-scoring, with Under 2.5 goals the smart play given both teams’ defensive solidity in La Liga this season.
- BTTS No is favored, as Osasuna have only scored 3 goals in their last five games and face the tightest defence in the bottom half of the table.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Alavés to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Alavés come into this fixture in strong form, winning three and drawing two of their last five matches without a single defeat. Their most recent game was a 1-0 win over Villarreal, a result that underlines their defensive discipline and ability to grind out results against mid-table opposition. Before that, they drew 1-1 with Rayo Vallecano and beat Getafe 3-0, with Mariano Díaz causing problems at every turn. The 3-0 win over Getafe is particularly relevant, as it showed Alavés can punish teams that press high. Across their last five matches, they allowed just 9 goals against and kept the ball moving efficiently through their midfield trio.
Osasuna’s recent form is patchier. They beat Getafe 1-0 in their most recent match and edged Celta Vigo 2-1 before that, but a 0-0 draw with Levante and back-to-back defeats to Al Ain (0-2) and Napoli (1-2) in non-league competition reveal a squad that can be exposed by quality opponents. In La Liga specifically, their three games have yielded 2 wins and 1 draw with 3 goals scored and 1 conceded, which is solid on paper. Budimir is their main threat, and Rubén García provides width and creativity. The concern is their defensive exposure on the counter, with Íñigo Arguibide accumulating 3 offsides and 49 lost balls across three appearances.
The four most recent meetings between these sides show a pattern of shared points and goals on both ends. Two of the last four encounters ended 2-2, one finished 1-1, and Osasuna won 3-0 at Alavés in February 2026. Osasuna have scored in every head-to-head since 2024, which adds weight to monitoring the BTTS market, though Alavés’ current defensive form is considerably better than in those earlier meetings.
🚨Check out our dedicated Alavés vs Osasuna stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Alavés the Favourite
- Moneyline Alavés 2.29 | Osasuna 3.55
- Draw 3.07
The bookmaker average of 42% for an Alavés win aligns with the odds cluster around 2.26-2.35 across most books. Pinnacle’s 3.68 on Osasuna is the outlier on the away side, suggesting sharp money sees limited value in Osasuna at standard prices. The draw at 3.07-3.19 is fair given the head-to-head history of shared points, but Alavés’ home form and defensive record make the draw a less appealing option than backing the hosts directly. We see value on Alavés at 2.29 or better.
Possible Starting Lineups
Alavés Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Antonio Sivera
- DF: Nahuel Tenaglia, Ville Koski, Jonny Otto, Youssef Enriquez
- MF: Antonio Blanco, Pablo Ibanez Lumbreras, Mikel Rodriguez
- FW: Mariano Díaz, Toni Martínez, Angel Pérez Hidalgo
Alavés line up in a 5-3-2 that can easily shift to a 3-5-2 in possession. Antonio Sivera is the clear first-choice goalkeeper with 10 saves across three recent games. Nahuel Tenaglia offers attacking threat from right wing-back, having scored once in three appearances. Mariano Díaz is the standout name in attack, combining goals and assists in limited minutes, and Quique Sánchez Flores will likely give him a starting role here. Antonio Blanco anchors the midfield with 9 fouls and 8 interceptions, acting as the defensive screen.
Osasuna Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Sergio Herrera
- DF: Alejandro Catena, Abel Bretones, Íñigo Arguibide, Jorge Herrando
- MF: Jon Moncayola, Iker Muñoz Cameros, Moi Gómez, Aimar Oroz
- FW: Ante Budimir, Enrique Barja Alfonso
Osasuna set up in a 4-4-2 with Sergio Herrera in goal. Alejandro Catena is the fulcrum of their build-up play, completing 177 accurate passes in three matches, the highest on the team. Ante Budimir leads the line and is the primary goal threat, while Enrique Barja Alfonso adds pace and directness. Moi Gómez and Aimar Oroz provide creativity from central midfield positions. Luis Miguel Ramis will likely look to press high early and use Budimir’s physicality against Alavés’ back five.
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Alaves. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Alavés are in the best defensive shape they have shown in recent memory, conceding just one league goal in three games and going unbeaten across their last five fixtures. Osasuna arrive with a positive La Liga record but with notable gaps in their defensive structure and a reliance on Budimir to create something from limited service. The head-to-head history favors draws and goals for both sides, but the current Alavés squad under Quique Sánchez Flores is more organized and harder to break down than in previous seasons.
We predict an Alavés win, 1-0 or 2-0, with the hosts keeping a clean sheet. The best overall bet is Alavés to win to nil, and the secondary play is Under 2.5 goals, supported by both teams’ tendency to be conservative in La Liga matches this season. Perhaps the most interesting angle is the corners market, as Alavés’ 17 corners across five matches suggests they generate good wide delivery, and Over 7.5 corners looks achievable.
