Alavés vs Mallorca Predictions: Odds and betting tips for La Liga Match - 25.04.2026

The Estadio de Mendizorroza in Vitoria-Gasteiz will set the stage for a crucial La Liga 2025/26 regular season clash between Alavés and Mallorca on April 25th, 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 15:00 CEST. Both teams find themselves in the lower half of the table, with Alavés currently sitting 18th (8 wins, 9 draws, 15 losses, 36:48 goals, 33 points) and Mallorca in 15th (9 wins, 8 draws, 15 losses, 40:49 goals, 35 points). With only a narrow margin separating them from the relegation zone, the stakes could not be higher as each point is precious at this stage of the campaign.

For Alavés, striker Toni Martínez has proven to be a persistent threat up front, netting 2 goals in his last 3 matches and consistently registering high shot counts. On the Mallorca side, all eyes will be on Vedat Muriqi, whose form has been outstanding with 3 goals in his last 3 appearances, making him a focal point of the islanders’ attack.

A “hot stat” that stands out: Mallorca remain unbeaten in their last three La Liga outings (2 wins, 1 draw), including a statement 2-1 victory over Real Madrid — a testament to their tactical growth under Martin Demichelis.

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Alavés vs Mallorca predictions

Me best bet: Draw (X). Both sides have shown a preference for cautious, structured play in recent weeks. Alavés have drawn two of their last three matches, and Mallorca’s tactical discipline away from home has seen them secure points in challenging fixtures, including a 1-1 against Valencia. Given their closely matched recent form, defensive setups, and the high stakes of a relegation battle, a stalemate emerges as the most probable outcome.

Alavés under Quique Sánchez Flores favour a compact 4-4-2, prioritizing defensive organization and disciplined midfield pressing. Their matches are marked by high foul counts (37 in last five matches), moderate yellow card accumulation (7), and a reliance on set-piece opportunities (18 corners). Mallorca, meanwhile, have adopted a 5-3-2 under Demichelis, emphasizing solid defensive lines, measured build-up, and occasional sharp transitions. Their fouls (38) and yellow cards (5) are similar, but they edge Alavés in interceptions (28 vs 25), hinting at a slightly more proactive defensive approach. These tendencies suggest a game with limited clear chances and significant midfield congestion, supporting the case for a low-scoring draw.

• ⚽Total Goals: Under 2.5
• 💥Both Teams To Score: Yes
• 🎯Total Corners: Over 9.5

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Alavés vs Mallorca Most recent H2Hs

Looking back at their last three head-to-heads, including a tightly contested 0-1 Mallorca win earlier this season and a 1-1 draw last term, it’s clear these teams are well-matched, with games often decided by fine margins or defensive lapses. Both sides have struggled to assert dominance over the other, and tactical battles in midfield have been a recurring theme.

🚨Read our full Alavés vs Mallorca stats for more analysis.

Key Stats

• Mallorca are unbeaten in their last three La Liga matches (2W, 1D).
• Alavés have not won in their last three league games (2D, 1L).
• Vedat Muriqi (Mallorca) has scored 3 goals in his last 3 games.
• Alavés average 9.8 shots per match over the last five fixtures.
• Mallorca kept Real Madrid scoreless in the first half of their recent 2-1 win.
• Alavés and Mallorca have both scored exactly 6 goals in their last five matches.

Alavés vs Mallorca score prediction: 1-1

The most plausible result is a 1-1 draw. Toni Martínez and Vedat Muriqi are both in scoring form and represent their teams’ main attacking outlets. Alavés’ home advantage and Mallorca’s recent defensive resilience point to a balanced affair, with both teams likely to find the net but neither possessing the consistent firepower to pull away.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Alavés the favourite

Bookmakers slightly favour Alavés due to home advantage, but the odds reflect a tightly balanced contest, with the draw also well-priced. The under 2.5 goals market is the favourite, aligning with the teams’ recent scoring and defensive records. BTTS is nearly even, indicating the expectation of a close, possibly low-scoring duel where both teams might still find the net.

Alavés vs Mallorca Over/Under Analysis

• Four of the last five Alavés games have ended with under 2.5 goals.
• Three of Mallorca’s last five matches have seen under 2.5 goals.
• Neither team has scored more than two goals in any of their last five meetings.
• Both teams average just over one goal per match recently.
• Low risk of red cards, but both accumulate moderate yellow cards (Alavés 7, Mallorca 5 in last five).

Alavés Preview

Alavés come into this fixture having drawn with Real Sociedad (3-3) and Osasuna (2-2) before narrowly losing to Real Madrid (1-2). Despite their lack of wins, they have shown resilience and the ability to score against tough opponents. The main concern remains their defensive fragility, with eight goals conceded in the last three matches. Quique Sánchez Flores is likely to stick with his 4-4-2, leaning on Toni Martínez and Lucas Boyé for goals and hoping midfielders like Antonio Blanco and Ander Guevara can provide structure.

Alavés possible starting eleven

Mallorca Preview

Mallorca have hit form at a crucial time, going unbeaten in their last three, including an impressive 2-1 win over Real Madrid and a commanding 3-0 victory over Rayo Vallecano. Their 1-1 draw with Valencia showed tactical maturity, with Martin Demichelis’ 5-3-2 formation providing both defensive solidity and quick counter-attacking options. The team’s strength lies in the central midfield trio, while Vedat Muriqi’s finishing gives them an edge in tight encounters.

Mallorca possible starting eleven

Our prediction: Who Wins?

As TipsGG team experts, our primary pick is a draw. Both teams are defensively organized and closely matched in recent form. Mallorca’s slight edge in form is offset by Alavés’ home advantage and hunger for points. We project a 1-1 result, with a 37% probability for a draw, according to our AI prediction engine. Expect a tactical battle, with key moments likely to arise from set-pieces and transitions.

How to watch Alavés vs Mallorca

When? April 25, 2026

Kick-off time: 14:00 CEST

Where? Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz

How to watch: La Liga TV, regional Spanish broadcasters, and major international streaming platforms.

Favorite: Alavés

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