Sofia Quijada
Barcelona visit Estadio de Mendizorroza as runaway La Liga leaders to face relegation-threatened Alavés. The fixture brings together a side with only a single win in its last five matches against a team on a perfect six-match winning streak. Toni Martínez, leading Alavés with four goals in his last four matches, will try to breach a defense marshalled by Pau Cubarsí. Ferrán Torres, who netted three times in Barcelona’s last five, stands out as a likely threat up front. The most striking stat: Barcelona boast a 100% win rate in their last six matches and have scored 91 league goals – an unmatched attacking output this season.
| 🏆 Tournament: | La Liga 2025/26 Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz |
| 🗓️ Date: | 13.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:30 CEST |
Alavés vs Barcelona prediction
We predict a Barcelona win. Their current form outclasses Alavés in every department. Six consecutive victories, 91 goals scored, and a 60-goal difference contrast sharply with Alavés’ 20% win rate over the last 30 days. Hansi Flick’s side play with high possession and clinical finishing, while Alavés struggle defensively, conceding 54 goals in 35 matches.
Alavés’ style involves a defensive 5-3-2, but they average almost 10 fouls per game and have racked up 13 yellow cards in five outings, revealing a tendency to get drawn into rash challenges when under pressure. Barcelona, operating in a 4-2-3-1, combine sharp ball circulation (over 3,200 passes in their last five) with efficiency in the final third. Fewer yellow cards (8 in five games) and better discipline support their possession game, helping them dictate tempo and reduce risk of disruptions. This dynamic puts the hosts at a disadvantage, as repeated fouls could yield dangerous free-kick situations for Barcelona.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Barcelona to win and over 2.5 goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Alavés’ recent results paint a picture of struggle. Their last match ended 1-1 against Elche – a side in the bottom half – exposing defensive frailties and lack of a creative spark in midfield. Toni Martínez’s goal threat remains their main hope, but support from wide or deep positions is inconsistent. Alavés conceded four to Athletic Bilbao recently, and shipped goals to Real Madrid and Real Sociedad. Defending set pieces and transitions remains a weak point.
Barcelona’s march continues relentlessly. In their last outing, they dispatched Real Madrid 2-0, dominating in midfield and creating numerous chances. Ferrán Torres and Lamine Yamal excel in wide areas, feeding Lewandowski and Rashford, who both offer goals and assists. The midfield duo keeps control with high passing accuracy, and the back line, anchored by Cubarsí and Koundé, limits opposition shots. This blend of control, pace, and firepower has left recent opponents with few answers.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Alavés | Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 3 |
| Total shots | 53 | 61 |
| Free kicks | 1 | 3 |
| Corner kicks | 22 | 23 |
| Total fouls | 48 | 57 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 81 | 91 |
| Interceptions | 25 | 36 |
| Offsides | 9 | 12 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Alavés vs Barcelona stats page for more info.
Alaves. Source: Official X/Twitter. Edited photo
Pre-game odds and win probability: Barcelona the favourite
- Moneyline Alavés 3.40 | Barcelona 2.16
- Draw 3.86
- Over/Under Over 2.5 1.80 | Under 2.5 2.00
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.75 | No 2.05
Bookmakers set Barcelona as clear favourites. The away odds hover around 2.10, reflecting their recent streak and goal haul. Alavés have an implied win chance below 30%, justified by their poor form and the visitors’ firepower. Over 2.5 goals at sub-2.00 odds signals high expectations for scoring. The BTTS market prices both teams to score as likely, given Alavés’ tendency to both score and concede, while Barcelona’s attack rarely blanks.
Possible Starting Lineups
Alavés possible starting eleven
- GK: Antonio Sivera
- DF: Nahuel Tenaglia, Jonny Otto, Victor Parada, Jon Pacheco, Youssef Enriquez
- MF: Antonio Blanco, Ander Guevara, Jon Guridi
- FW: Toni Martínez, Angel Pérez Hidalgo
Alavés will likely persist with a 5-3-2, focusing on compactness. Sivera stays in goal after consistent appearances. Defenders Tenaglia, Otto, Parada, Pacheco, and Enriquez offer experience and physicality. Blanco, Guevara, and Guridi bring energy in midfield. Martínez, their form striker, partners Pérez Hidalgo who leads in assists. The system aims to frustrate, then counter, but risks isolation up front and heavy workload for wing-backs.
Barcelona possible starting eleven
- GK: Joan García
- DF: Jules Koundé, Pau Cubarsí, Gerard Martín, João Cancelo
- MF: Pedri, Pablo Martín Páez Gavira, Daniel Olmo Carvajal, Fermín López
- FW: Ferrán Torres, Robert Lewandowski
Barcelona’s probable 4-2-3-1 maximizes control. García, ever-present, starts in goal. The back four of Koundé, Cubarsí, Martín, and Cancelo blend youth and experience. Pedri, Gavi, and Olmo keep possession and create, while López supports. Up top, Ferrán Torres and Lewandowski pose dual threats. Yamal and Rashford offer impact from the bench. Expect sustained pressure and quick transitions between the lines.
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TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Barcelona to win with at least three goals in the match, and both teams likely to score. Barcelona’s overwhelming possession, superior passing, and clinical attack face an Alavés side that concedes regularly. Martínez could snatch a goal for the hosts, but Barcelona’s firepower and control will wear them down. Our advice: back Barcelona and over 2.5 goals, with a small stake on both teams to score.
