Alanyaspor vs Karagumruk Prediction: 13.01.2026 Turkish Cup

The Turkish Cup, a competition known for its unpredictable storylines and passionate footballing drama, continues with a Group A fixture between Alanyaspor and Karagumruk at Alanya Oba Stadyumu. Both clubs come into this match with contrasting recent fortunes and ambitions. Alanyaspor have flourished under João Pereira with a robust unbeaten run, while Karagumruk, managed by Onur Can Korkmaz, seek to find consistency and a spark in attack after a stuttering patch of form. Interestingly, these two sides met just weeks ago, with Alanyaspor emerging as 2-0 victors, underlining their growing tactical cohesion.

Key players to watch in this clash: For Alanyaspor, striker Güven Yalçın is the clear man to keep an eye on, having found the net three times in his last five games, combining clinical movement with a poacher’s finish. Karagumruk’s most promising outlet is young forward David Datro Fofana, whose pace and flair could ask questions of any backline despite the team’s collective struggles.

“Hot stat”: Alanyaspor have kept three consecutive clean sheets across all competitions, a testament to their disciplined defensive structure and the fine form of their defensive line.

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Alanyaspor vs Karagumruk prediction

The best value prediction for this fixture is an Alanyaspor win to nil. Their defensive stability has been rock-solid of late three clean sheets in a row and just one goal conceded in five matches point to a team in control of their destiny and their rhythm. Karagumruk, by contrast, have only mustered one goal in as many recent outings, and their attack lacks sharpness and reliability. The gulf in win rates (Alanyaspor’s 60% to Karagumruk’s 20% in the last five games) further tips the balance.

Both sides display contrasting tactical approaches: Alanyaspor, comfortably operating in a proactive 4-2-3-1, focus on methodical buildup and efficient transitions evidenced by their high pass accuracy (1107 passes at 86 percent in five games). They maintain discipline but aren’t egregiously foul-prone, drawing only 50 fouls to ten yellow cards in the last five matches. Karagumruk, lining up in a 4-4-1-1, tend toward a more reactive set-up with deep midfield blocks, but their relatively low goal output and higher interceptions (37 vs Alanyaspor’s 26) suggest they spend more time tracking than dictating play.

Team Analysis

Alanyaspor’s recent form has been excellent, and their last outing was a convincing 2-0 win over Metaloglobus. Notably, their last direct face-off against Karagumruk also resulted in a 2-0 win, further solidifying their credentials as early group favourites. Pereira’s outfit have shown superb discipline in defence, tidy in buildup and ruthless in transition, as especially highlighted by the clean sheets and minimal goals conceded this winter spell. The front line, particularly Güven Yalçın and Hwang Ui-Jo, have brought a perfect blend of industry and incisiveness.

Karagumruk’s recent form, on the other hand, has stuttered most recently a 1-2 defeat to Petrolul at home. Their only win in the past five came against U. Cluj in a 2-1 contest but the general lack of creativity and cutting edge has seen them struggle in transition. While their defensive effort and high interception rate might keep matches close, the attack often fizzles out absent a spark of genius from the likes of David Datro Fofana.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Alanyaspor vs Karagumruk stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Alanyaspor the favourite

• Moneyline Alanyaspor 1.45–1.50 | Karagumruk 5.40–6.20
• Draw 3.81–4.22
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.00 | Under 2.5 1.80
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.30 | No 1.62

No surprise to see Alanyaspor as convincing favourites. The bookies’ confidence is warranted, considering their strong home run and head-to-head dominance. The under 2.5 line is particularly attractive given both teams’ low recent goal tallies and Karagumruk’s dogged, if unproductive, defensive resistance. Both Teams to Score No seems wise; the away side’s creative issues are clear.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Alanyaspor possible starting eleven

João Pereira is likely to maintain a 4-2-3-1, which has underpinned the team’s recent success. Ertuğrul Taşkıran’s steadiness in goal inspires confidence at the back. The central midfield will orchestrate proceedings with strong passers like Janvier and Karaca, whilst the creative burden going forward falls on Ianis Hagi and the in-form Güven Yalçın, who is surely the focal point in attack.

Karagumruk possible starting eleven

Karagumruk will likely stick with their 4-4-1-1, striving for midfield compactness with Kranevitter and Doh shielding the defence. Their threat on the break will need Fofana’s pace and Serginho’s craftsman instincts to come alive if they’re to breach Alanyaspor. Esgaio is one to watch for his overlapping runs, though the real question is whether this side can turn defensive resilience into anything meaningful up top.

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The Verdict

For my money, this is Alanyaspor’s tie to lose. Their recent discipline especially at the back is in marked contrast to a Karagumruk side that looks bereft of attacking ideas. Expect a controlled performance from Alanyaspor, perhaps not overflowing with goals, but offering enough presence, efficiency, and tactical flexibility to keep the visitors at arm’s length. Güven Yalçın to score anytime, a clean sheet for the home side, and an underwhelming attacking return from Karagumruk seems the safest pick.

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