Liam Duckstein
Al Taawoun face Al Ittihad in a match that could determine the shape of the top half in the Saudi Pro League. With Al Taawoun holding fifth position and Al Ittihad just four points behind in sixth, the stakes are clear. Both teams have faltered in consistency lately, but this match offers a direct path to European qualification spots. The tactical battle between Pericles Chamusca and Sérgio Conceição adds another layer of intrigue, as both managers tend to trust their 4-3-3 setups and rely on their key playmakers. Among them, Youssef En-Nesyri for Al Ittihad brings sharpness up front, while Marin Petkov has proven influential for Al Taawoun in recent outings.
One outstanding stat: Al Ittihad averaged 10.2 corners per match across their last five games, showing relentless pressure even when the results varied. This could tip set-piece opportunities in their favor again.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Saudi Pro League 2025/26 Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | King Abdullah Sports City, Buraidah |
| 🗓️ Date: | 29.04.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:10 CEST |
Al Taawoun vs Al Ittihad prediction
We predict Al Ittihad to win, with a value in the away side at current odds. Their win probability, based on bookmakers and recent stats, stands at 45%. Al Ittihad offer more threat in attack and greater discipline at the back. They outmatch Al Taawoun in passing numbers, total shots, and have a slightly better win rate both recently and across the season.
The match should see open play, as both teams set up in a 4-3-3 with wingers pushing high. Al Ittihad’s approach is direct, maximizing their forwards’ movement and benefiting from a midfield that’s good in transition. Their 51 total shots in the last five games show clear attacking intent. Al Taawoun, by contrast, are more compact but have struggled to turn possession into clear chances, registering just 39 shots in the same span.
Both teams play hard, but Al Taawoun average more fouls per match (34 fouls, 9 yellow cards in 5 games), which could disrupt their rhythm and invite dangerous free kicks for Al Ittihad. Al Ittihad’s set-piece strength could be decisive, especially with their higher corner count and more free-flowing attack.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Al Ittihad Over 5.5 Corners |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 10.5 |
Team Analysis
Al Taawoun’s last five matches highlight their defensive gaps. The 2-1 win over bottom side Al Najma masked underlying issues, as they allowed plenty of chances even against the league’s weakest. Against Al Kholood, they fell 1-2 at home, showing lapses in concentration, and the 2-2 draws versus Al Hilal and Neom SC featured late goals both ways. The side managed only one win from the last five, showing their inability to kill games off when ahead.
Al Ittihad’s recent record is better, with two wins from four. The 1-0 win over Al Wahda showcased defensive steel, while the 3-4 defeat to Neom SC revealed a willingness to go toe-to-toe in attack. Their 0-1 loss to Machida in an intercontinental contest was unlucky, given their 12 shots. Importantly, Youssef En-Nesyri remains reliable up front, scoring two in the last four league games.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Al Taawoun | Al Ittihad |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 5 |
| Total shots | 39 | 51 |
| Corner kicks | 10 | 24 |
| Total fouls | 34 | 44 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 85.7 | 84.0 |
| Interceptions | 24 | 33 |
| Offsides | 3 | 4 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Al Taawoun vs Al Ittihad stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Al Ittihad the favourite
- Moneyline Al Taawoun 3.20 | Al Ittihad 2.08
- Draw 3.65
- Over/Under Over 2.5 1.90 | Under 2.5 1.80
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.65 | No 2.25
Al Ittihad’s price as the favorite makes sense. They are sharper in front of goal and more stable defensively. The odds reflect their higher win rate and head-to-head dominance. The draw sits just above 3.5, offering little value considering both teams’ inconsistency. Over 2.5 goals is near evens, which feels justified given both sides’ attacking output and defensive gaps. BTTS looks likely, with both managers opting for aggressive lineups and both defenses showing leaks in recent matches.
Possible Starting Lineups
Al Taawoun possible starting eleven
- GK: Mailson Tenorio dos Santos
- DF: Mohammed Al-Dossari, Andrei Girotto, Qasem Lajami, Meshal Al-Aeli
- MF: Flávio, Ashraf El Mahdioui, Mohammed Mahzari
- FW: Marin Petkov, Roger Martínez, Mohammed Al-Kuwaykibi
This selection sticks closely to Chamusca’s preferred 4-3-3. Girotto is a threat from set pieces, while Marin Petkov will be a key creative outlet. Mailson Tenorio provides reliability in goal, but the defense has had some shaky moments recently. Expect Petkov and Al-Kuwaykibi to rotate wings and cut inside.
Al Ittihad possible starting eleven
- GK: Predrag Rajković
- DF: Danilo Pereira, Hassan Kadesh, Muhannad Al-Shanqeeti, Jan-Carlo Simić
- MF: Fabinho, Houssem Aouar, Faisal Al-Ghamdi
- FW: Youssef En-Nesyri, Steven Bergwijn, Abdulrahman Al-Oboud
Conceição’s most-used 4-3-3 will likely remain unchanged. En-Nesyri is the main danger man, with Bergwijn’s movement out wide stretching defenses. Fabinho sits deep to break up play, Aouar links midfield to attack. Rajković’s recent form cements his spot in goal.
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Al Ittihad. Source: Official X/Twitter. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Al Ittihad to come out on top. The visitors have outperformed Al Taawoun both in attack and defensive transitions, and their set-piece threat is clear with more corners and total shots. Al Taawoun’s discipline issues and tendency to give away fouls could open the door for Al Ittihad’s attackers to capitalize. Expect an open game with goals at both ends, but Al Ittihad’s organization and individual quality, especially from En-Nesyri, should make the difference.
