Arjun Menon
Al Taawoun hosts Al Ahli SC in Buraidah at the King Abdullah Sports City, where the stakes sit high for both. Fifth in the standings, Al Taawoun chases an outside chance at a higher finish, while third-placed Al Ahli SC eyes a push for the top. Recent results hint at contrasting momentum, but the home crowd may stoke a response. Notably, Ivan Toney’s return to scoring form for Al Ahli SC stands out—his pace and physicality have troubled every defense lately. Roger Martínez for Al Taawoun, meanwhile, is a genuine spark, creating and finishing despite his team’s inconsistent run. Watch for these two. Also, Edouard Mendy’s composure in goal for Al Ahli SC often makes the difference when games get tense.
Hot stat: Al Ahli SC have scored at least three goals in three of their last five league outings, outpacing Al Taawoun’s output in the same stretch.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Saudi Pro League 2025/26 Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | King Abdullah Sports City, Buraidah |
| 🗓️ Date: | 11.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:00 CEST |
Al Taawoun vs Al Ahli SC prediction
The best value on this match sits with backing Al Ahli SC to win. Recent form, superior squad depth, and a more balanced attack all point their way. With a 74% win rate this year and only three losses in thirty-one league games, Al Ahli’s consistency stands in stark contrast to Al Taawoun, whose last five saw two losses and just two wins. Our TipsGG punters team is convinced: Al Ahli’s front three, especially Toney and Mahrez, overwhelm inconsistent defenses—Taawoun’s included. The bookmakers put Al Ahli at 68% win probability for a reason.
Both sides show different approaches. Al Taawoun prefers a 4-2-3-1 formation, focusing on transitions and wide play, but struggles in midfield duels and sometimes racks up cards—ten yellows in five matches, forty fouls, not to mention some defensive lapses. Al Ahli, in contrast, keep things tighter with a 4-3-3 and more controlled possession. Their pass accuracy is slightly lower, yet they draw more fouls and set pieces, which fits their direct, aggressive style. Al Ahli’s defense also looks more robust, with fewer cards and more discipline. This, plus their attacking firepower, shapes our prediction: Al Ahli to win, with a high chance for both sides to find the net as Taawoun rarely goes quietly at home.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Over 3.5 goals in the match |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Al Taawoun’s latest performance was a 5-1 demolition of Al Shabab—an unexpected result, yet one showing what they’re capable of when things click. Martínez scored, Fulgini created, and the team pressed high. But inconsistency is their curse. The loss to Al Ittihad (0-2) before that, and a 1-2 defeat to Al Kholood, point to lapses in focus. Bahusayn and Mahdioui handle a lot of the midfield work, but the team relies heavily on transitions and often gets caught out pushing numbers forward. Defensive gaps show up in tougher games, especially against organized attacks. They can be dangerous, but also frustrating to back for punters looking for reliability.
Al Ahli SC, on the other hand, come off a 3-1 win against Al Fateh—a match that looked competitive only in the opening minutes. Toney found the net, Kessié controlled the tempo, and Mendy’s saves quashed Al Fateh’s faint hopes. Al Ahli’s last five matches feature four wins and only one defeat, a run that includes a clean sheet over Al Akhdoud and a narrow loss to Al Nassr, the league leaders. The squad’s depth allows for rotation without drop-off, and their 4-3-3 formation fits the personnel perfectly. They create more chances than almost anyone in the league and rarely lose composure, even when pressed.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Al Taawoun | Al Ahli SC |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 8 | 10 |
| Total shots | 62 | 72 |
| Free kicks | 4 | 1 |
| Corner kicks | 17 | 16 |
| Total fouls | 40 | 56 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 87% | 77% |
| Interceptions | 30 | 34 |
| Offsides | 10 | 19 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Al Taawoun vs Al Ahli SC stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Al Ahli SC the favourite
- Moneyline Al Taawoun 2.90 | Al Ahli SC 1.35
- Draw –
- Over/Under Over 2.5 – | Under 2.5 –
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes – | No –
Bookmakers put Al Ahli SC at clear favorites, and honestly, that’s justified. The form, squad strength, and recent head-to-head meetings all tip the scales. Al Taawoun’s price looks tempting but ignores the gulf in quality and momentum. Over 2.5 goals is almost a lock, considering both teams’ attacking numbers and defensive frailties. The draw isn’t really in play, given each side’s style—both push for wins, not stalemates.
Possible Starting Lineups
Al Taawoun possible starting eleven
- GK: Mailson Tenorio dos Santos
- DF: Andrei Girotto, Qasem Lajami, Mohammed Al-Dossari, Meshal Al-Aeli
- MF: Ashraf El Mahdioui, Mohammed Mahzari, Flávio, Angelo Fulgini
- FW: Roger Martínez, Mohammed Al-Kuwaykibi
The back line mostly picks itself—Girotto and Lajami anchor the defense, while Al-Dossari adds width and occasional attacking flair. Fulgini is the link between lines, with Flávio and Mahdioui shuttling possession. Martínez and Al-Kuwaykibi bring pace and directness up front. Expect the familiar 4-2-3-1, which gives them some flexibility in transitions. Watch for Fulgini to influence the game if Al Taawoun is to make a dent in Al Ahli’s back line.
Al Ahli SC possible starting eleven
- GK: Edouard Mendy
- DF: Roger Ibañez, Rayan Hamed Hamidou, Merih Demiral, Zakaria Al Hawsawi
- MF: Franck Kessié, Enzo Millot, Valentin Atangana Edoa
- FW: Ivan Toney, Riyad Mahrez, Firas Al-Buraikan
Al Ahli’s back four mixes steel and technical ability, while Mendy in goal is as reliable as ever. Kessié brings calmness and forward drive, Millot and Atangana provide balance. Up front, Toney leads the line with Mahrez and Al-Buraikan supporting—expect fluid rotations and direct attacks. The 4-3-3 formation is no surprise; it suits their squad and current form. Toney is the man to watch—he’s in scoring touch and relishes games like these.
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Al Ahli. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
We think Al Ahli SC wins by two clear goals, something like 3-1 or 4-2, and maybe there’s late drama if Taawoun chase. Al Ahli’s squad just looks sharper, and their recent results back it up. Over 2.5 goals is a must-play. Both teams score? Feels almost inevitable. Al Taawoun will have their moments, but Al Ahli’s quality in attack is likely to be decisive. The crowd might hope for a shock, but the gap is just too wide this time. Our punters are backing goals, cards, and plenty of action—value is on the visitors.
