Al Nassr vs Al-Hazem Prediction: 21.02.2026 Saudi Pro League

As the Saudi Pro League edges closer to its business end, Al Nassr host Al-Hazem at Mrsool Park in Riyadh. Sitting securely in third and boasting the best win streak in the division, Al Nassr are chasing the top two, while Al-Hazem, perched just outside of the relegation zone, must scrap for every point. With Jorge Jesus steering a side oozing with international experience and Jalel Kadri’s Al-Hazem fighting for survival, the context brings together contrasting ambitions and an intriguing narrative.

All eyes will be on Sadio Mané, whose dynamism on the left flank and clinical edge has been crucial for Al Nassr, and Omar Al-Soma for Al-Hazem, a seasoned striker capable of punishing any defensive lapse.

The “hot stat”? Al Nassr have enjoyed a 100% win rate over the last 30 days, winning 8 consecutive matches across all competitions a blazing run that has seen their defense concede just twice in five outings.

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Al Nassr vs Al-Hazem prediction

Looking at the odds and recent form, the best value prediction here lies with Al Nassr to stack another home victory, potentially with an Asian Handicap of -2. Given their attacking firepower and resolute back line, this feels like the prudent selection. While Al-Hazem will rally and can threaten on the counter especially through the hard-working Al-Soma the gulf in class is notable.

Al Nassr average a whopping 14 shots per game and have allowed just 5 goals in their last 8, while Al-Hazem’s back line has looked porous, conceding 7 in the last five. Discipline could play a role: Al-Hazem rack up more yellows (13 compared to Al Nassr’s 5 in their last five game stretch) and frequently lose their midfield rhythm due to fouls and stoppages. Expect Al Nassr to dominate ball possession and probe relentlessly, but watch for physical duels that could see tempers flare in midfield.

Team Analysis

Al Nassr Recent Games
Jorge Jesus has this squad purring. Their last match was a narrow 1-0 win over Arkadag another display of control, with Al Nassr recording the lion’s share of possession and looking comfortable throughout. Previously, they dispatched Al Fateh 2-0 and Al Ittihad 2-0 with equal poise, highlighting their defensive solidity and tactical nous. The midfield trio of Brozović, Al-Hassan, and the marauding Mané ensure a blend of control and spark, while the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo and Ayman Yahya provide incision in the final third.

Al-Hazem Recent Games
Al-Hazem come into this one off the back of a scrappy 2-1 win over Al Akhdoud much needed after a bruising 0-4 defeat to Al Shabab and a 0-2 setback against table-toppers Al Ahli SC. While defensive frailties remain a concern, this is a side capable of making the most of their chances when allowed. Omar Al-Soma’s brace spearheaded their last win, but lapses in marking and a high foul count continue to limit their points haul. Kadri will demand a compact shape and opportunist approach, hoping for moments of individual brilliance to edge them forward.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Al Nassr vs Al-Hazem stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Al Nassr the favourite

• Moneyline Al Nassr 1.13 | Al-Hazem 13.00
• Draw 9.40
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.32 | Under 2.5 2.90
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.60 | No 1.50

The bookies leave no room for argument: Al Nassr are the overwhelming favourites with odds averaging 1.13, reflecting their imperious home form and Al-Hazem’s defensive insecurities. The likelihood of a high-scoring, lopsided affair is solidified by the over 2.5 goals line and strong market signals towards ‘No’ on both teams to score, as Al Nassr have kept clean sheets in five straight games. That said, the narrative of football is never written in stone Al-Hazem tend to rise for the big occasions, but their porous back line could struggle under the sustained pressure of Al Nassr’s rotating front line.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Al Nassr possible starting eleven

This XI mirrors Jorge Jesus’ preferred shape a robust 4-1-4-1 morphing into a 4-3-3 on the attack. Bento’s steady hands anchor the defense, while Al-Amri and Martínez bring assurance at the back. Brozović orchestrates from deep, letting Ali Al-Hassan and Ghareeb shuttle forward. The forward line bristles with threat: veterans Ronaldo and Mané, with Yahya’s pace creating constant headaches down the flanks. The combination of discipline and cutting edge makes this side a nightmare at Mrsool Park.

Al-Hazem possible starting eleven

Typically set in a 4-2-3-1, Kadri’s system relies on Bah and Rosier to plug the midfield gaps. The back four needs to keep a tight shape to withstand Al Nassr’s offensive barrage. Up front, Al-Soma and Habashi will need to make their chances count. Zaied’s recent form inspires confidence, but the entire side must avoid silly bookings if they want to stem Al Nassr’s dominance. The challenge is considerable, but this line-up is likely the best blend of resilience and counter-attacking intent Al-Hazem can field.

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The Verdict

We’re expecting Al Nassr to continue their imperious home form with a dominant win. The sheer volume of chances created by Jesus’ men, coupled with Al-Hazem’s susceptibility under pressure, points strongly to a decisive outcome in favour of the hosts. Watch for Sadio Mané and Ronaldo to cruise through the gears, while Al Nassr’s well-drilled back four snuffs out Al-Hazem’s main threats. Unless Al-Hazem can upset the rhythm early and frustrate with numbers behind the ball, it’s hard to see past anything but a convincing Al Nassr result one that could shape the momentum for their closing weeks of the season.

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