Al Najma vs Al-Riyadh Prediction: 28.01.2026 Saudi Pro League

With both Al Najma and Al-Riyadh languishing at the lower rungs of the Saudi Pro League, this fixture in Unaizah carries more than the usual weight. Neither side has won a league match this year, yet the statistical parity between the teams sets the stage for a high-stakes battle in the relentless fight for survival. The anticipation? Can one of these squads finally break their winless streak and claim a much-needed three points?

All eyes should be on Al Najma’s creative midfielder Rakan Al Tulayhi, whose knack for late runs into the box has yielded 3 goals in his last five outings. For Al-Riyadh, the influence of midfield dynamo Antonio Jose De Carvalho can’t be understated; he boasts 3 goals and 1 assist in his last five matches, injecting invaluable drive and technical composure.

Hot stat: Al Najma have managed to notch 7 goals in their last 5 matches a bright spark in an otherwise dour campaign despite failing to register a single win.

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Al Najma vs Al-Riyadh prediction

This clash pits two teams starved for victory, yet Al-Riyadh hold a marginal edge on both bookmakers’ probability (39% win chance) and recent attacking statistics 80 total shots to Najma’s 56 in their last 5 matches. While both struggle defensively (Al Najma have conceded 13 in five, Al-Riyadh 12), the away side’s aggressive approach under Daniel Carreño, coupled with Al Najma’s fragile backline, tips the scale slightly in Al-Riyadh’s favour.

Expect a scrappy affair, rife with fouls Al-Riyadh lead this negative stat with 78 fouls to Al Najma’s 52 recently, mirroring their physical, at times undisciplined, playing style. Both teams average over 10 shots per game but exhibit modest ball retention (Al Najma: 1,990 passes at 82% accuracy; Al-Riyadh: 1,840 passes at 81.8%). The high foul count and Al-Riyadh’s league-high 13 yellow cards in recent weeks could disrupt rhythm and lead to stoppages, increasing the likelihood of a draw or a match decided by individual moments rather than flowing football.

Team Analysis

Al Najma’s recent form continues to be a source of concern for their fans. Their 1-3 loss against Al Qadsiah highlighted persistent defensive frailties giving up three goals from just 10 shots on target, and falling victim to swift counter-attacks. That said, the team showed attacking promise, particularly in the second half with Rakan Al Tulayhi driving forward and winning set pieces in dangerous areas. Their previous outing, a stubborn 0-0 draw with Al Shabab, revealed that, when disciplined, Najma can frustrate technically superior sides, but too often, concentration lapses undo their good work.

Al-Riyadh were impressive to hold championship frontrunners Al-Hilal to a 1-1 draw recently a spirited display built around tight positional discipline and the relentless work rate of Antonio Jose De Carvalho, who capped a clever break with a clinical finish. However, consistency eludes them: their draw with Al Akhdoud (2-2) was marred by defensive errors under pressure, while the loss to Al Taawoun (1-3) resulted from failing to defend set-pieces and a rash of bookings. Nonetheless, Al-Riyadh’s willingness to shoot from range and battle for midfield supremacy remains their most dangerous weapon.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Al Najma vs Al-Riyadh stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Al-Riyadh the favourite

• Moneyline Al Najma 2.76 – Al-Riyadh 2.40
• Draw 3.50
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.90 – Under 2.5 1.80
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.83 – No 2.00

These odds encapsulate the sense that Al-Riyadh, despite their own winless run, are marginal favourites courtesy of their livelier attack and greater discipline in the centre of the park. The draw price (3.50) reflects the likelihood that both teams, haunted by past failures to convert pressure into results, may cancel one another out. Given both defences’ vulnerability but also their profligate finishing, BTTS looks likely and the under 2.5 is attractive due to their mutual tendency to stifle when stakes are high.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Al Najma possible starting eleven

The selection for Najma’s likely 4-4-2 pivots around Braga’s consistency in goal and the pairing of Ali Jassim and Lázaro Vinicius up top both have shown sharpness in short bursts. The midfield must offer box-to-box energy and discipline, with Al Tulayhi a likely candidate to spark attacking moves. Samir De Souza and Musa Al Hawsawi anchor a defence that must step up amid relentless opposition pressure. Guiding this mix, coach Mário Silva may stress compact lines and quick transitions.

Al-Riyadh possible starting eleven

Al-Riyadh typically operate in a 4-1-4-1, relying on Borjan’s experience between the posts and the creative power of De Carvalho, whose performances make him indispensable. The wide areas will be key, as Bayesh and Haroun provide much-needed thrust; Sylla Diallo’s movement up front could stretch Najma’s porous defence. Coach Carreño looks for physical intensity and wide pressing expect bookings but also bundles of attacking intent.

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The Verdict

This contest is destined to be tight, nervy, and physical frustration may well boil over into a rash of cautions and stoppages. Yet, Al-Riyadh have more about them in the final third, particularly with De Carvalho orchestrating play. Our main prediction: Al-Riyadh Draw No Bet, with value on both teams finding the net. Both will fight as if their top-flight futures depend on it because, quite frankly, they do! While neither side has thrilled lately, expect tactical chess, bruising midfield tussles, and, at last, a glimmer of hope for the away side’s travelling supporters.

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