Rafael Nogueira
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Al Kholood host a rampant Al Qadsiah side sitting fourth in the Saudi Pro League table, while the home side occupy seventh after a mixed start under Des Buckingham. Brendan Rodgers’ men have won four of their last five league fixtures and have beaten Al Kholood in all four of the recorded meetings between these clubs, never conceding more than one goal in the process. That record alone makes this one of the more one-sided fixtures on this weekend’s card, though Al Kholood’s home form this season has been steadier than their away struggles suggest.
Watch Julián Quiñones for the visitors, he has scored twice and carries 8 shots across his last three starts, a clear sign Rodgers is building attacks through him. Tijjani Reijnders has also chipped in with two goals and leads the squad with 9 shots in that span, giving Al Qadsiah two separate goal threats from midfield. For Al Kholood, Iker Kortajarena Canellada is the one creative spark, scoring once while completing 68 passes at a decent 52% accuracy rate in limited minutes.
Hot stat: Al Qadsiah have outscored Al Kholood 8-2 across their respective last five matches, yet Al Kholood actually hold the edge in corners won, 17 to 10, a split that hints at a game where the hosts create set-piece chances without finishing them off.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Saudi Pro League 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Al Hazm Club Stadium, Ar Rass |
| 🗓️ Date: | 09.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 15:50 CEST |
Al Kholood vs Al Qadsiah prediction
We predict Al Qadsiah win combined with over 2.5 total goals as the best value play here. Rodgers’ side have scored in nine of their last ten games and arrive with 68% win rate this season against Al Kholood’s 27%, a gap the table position confirms. Perhaps the only caution is Al Qadsiah’s draw against Al Ettifaq (3-3) two games back, proof this defense can be opened up on the road.
Al Qadsiah control possession comfortably, their 1,538 passes at 86.7% accuracy over five games dwarf Al Kholood’s 837 passes at 84.6%. The visitors also commit more fouls (33 to 25) and pick up more cards (9 to 6), a pattern of a side pressing higher and risking cynical fouls to stop counters. That aggression, paired with Al Kholood’s set-piece habit of winning plenty of corners without converting, points toward a match with goals at both ends but a clear away control.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Al Qadsiah -1 Asian Handicap |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Al Kholood’s run reads draw, win, draw, win, loss, closing with a 0-2 defeat at Al-Riyadh last time out. That loss snapped a decent stretch where they beat Al Shabab 2-1 and Al Ahli 3-1, showing goals are there when they press forward but defensive lapses against a mid-table side like Al-Riyadh raise concern facing a sharper attack this week.
Al Qadsiah’s last five read win, win, win, draw, win, a 2-1 victory over Al-Wasl their most recent result. Before that a 3-3 thriller with Al Ettifaq was their only blemish in that stretch, but they still found three goals away from home, a trend that backs the over 2.5 goals angle for this trip to Ar Rass.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Al Kholood | Al Qadsiah |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 15 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Al Kholood vs Al Qadsiah stats page for more info.
Al Kholood. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Al Qadsiah the favourite
- Moneyline Al Kholood 5.01 | Al Qadsiah 1.52
- Draw 4.58
Bookmakers give Al Qadsiah a 61% chance of victory against just 18% for Al Kholood, with the draw sitting at 21%. Those numbers line up with the league table and the head-to-head record, where the visitors have won every single meeting without conceding more than one goal. The short Al Qadsiah price still looks fair given their away form, but backing the handicap or goals markets offers better returns than the plain moneyline.
Possible Starting Lineups
Al Kholood possible starting eleven
- GK: Hamed Al-Shanqity
- DF: Edgaras Utkus, Mansour Camara, Shaquille Pinas, Ramzi Solan
- MF: Seydouba Cisse, Abdulrahman Al-Dosari, Iker Kortajarena Canellada, Mohammed Al Rashidi, Mohammed Sawaan
- FW: Coba Gomes da Costa
Buckingham should stick with the 4-2-3-1 that has featured in his last five matches. Kortajarena Canellada gets the nod in the number 10 role given his direct goal contribution, while Cisse and Al-Dosari sit as the double pivot to shield a back four that has leaked goals in recent weeks.
Al Qadsiah possible starting eleven
- GK: Koen Casteels
- DF: Nacho Fernández, Gastón Álvarez, Jehad Thakri, Mohammed Abu Al-Shamat
- MF: Musab Al-Juwayr, Julian Weigl, Tijjani Reijnders, Christopher Bonsu Baah, Julián Quiñones
- FW: Mateo Retegui
Rodgers also favours a 4-2-3-1, and this group has carried the team through its six-win run in the last eight. Retegui leads the line with Quiñones and Reijnders rotating through the attacking midfield slots, both of whom have scored twice in their last three appearances, making either a sensible anytime scorer pick.
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Al Qadsiah. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Al Qadsiah collect the three points in Ar Rass, likely by a two-goal margin given their recent scoring rate and the spotless head-to-head record against this opponent. Al Kholood should find the net at least once given their corner volume and attacking returns against Al Shabab and Al Ahli, but their leaky defense against Al-Riyadh suggests Rodgers’ attack will find openings too. To be honest, the handicap and over 2.5 goals combo offers the cleanest value on the board this week.
