Al-Hazem vs Al Ahli SC Prediction: 26.09.2025 Saudi Pro League 2025/26

A clash rich with narrative awaits in Ar Rass as struggling Al-Hazem play host to an ambitious Al Ahli SC side on 26 September 2025 in the fast-evolving Saudi Pro League. Both clubs come in with contrasting forms and outlooks — Al-Hazem, seeking to shake off early-season stagnation, and Al Ahli SC, determined to cement themselves as contenders in a fiercely competitive campaign. What makes this encounter especially intriguing is the blend of tactical conservatism and attacking flair likely to be showcased, with each squad boasting unique talents poised to leave their imprint on the season’s storyline.

Much scrutiny will fall on Ivan Toney, Al Ahli SC’s prolific new forward with five goals already in just four appearances, whose movement and finishing have lit up the league. For Al-Hazem, Omar Al-Soma represents hope — a talismanic striker who, even when isolated in attack, has demonstrated a knack for clinical finishing under pressure. Their head-to-head could well determine the direction of the contest, as both players are essential for their sides’ ambitions.

Here’s a stat to chew on: Al Ahli SC have rifled in 12 goals across their last five matches, registering a staggering 73 total shots — a testament to the free-flowing, offensive identity Matthias Jaissle has implemented. This is a level of productivity Al-Hazem have not come close to matching, managing just three goals from 31 shots in the same period.

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Al-Hazem vs Al Ahli SC prediction

The value in this fixture is unquestionably on Al Ahli SC to win, and win convincingly. Not only do the bookmakers back them (68 percent chance per consensus), but the gulf in recent attacking output, squad quality, and tactical sharpness is difficult to ignore. Al Hazem’s resilience at home can complicate matters, as evidenced by their recent 2-1 win over Neom SC, but the form guide — Al Ahli SC have double the win rate in the last month and a formidable eleven — leans heavily to the visitors.

Discipline may play a crucial role: Al-Hazem have been prone to indiscipline (averaging two yellow cards per match and 55 total fouls over the last five), whereas Al Ahli SC have managed their aggression more judiciously (47 fouls, six yellows). With Al Ahli enjoying a notable pass accuracy (88 percent to Al-Hazem’s 80 percent) and a propensity to push for corners (31 to nine in the latest five), expect them to control possession, dictate tempo, and suffocate Al Hazem’s counter-attacks.

Don’t discount the possibility of Al-Hazem snatching a goal in transition — but all signs point toward a high-scoring, entertaining match tilting blue and green.

Team Analysis

Al-Hazem Recent Games:
Al-Hazem’s recent results have been a mix of gritty draws and narrow defeats. Their victory over Neom SC (2-1) brought much-needed relief and showed glimpses of their counter-attacking intent. In that clash, Al-Hazem set up with a 4-2-3-1, packing numbers behind the ball and capitalising on set-piece opportunities. However, a stuttering attack (three goals in five matches) and porous defence (vulnerable from wide areas) remain issues. Notably, their goalless draw against Al Fateh highlighted improvements in defensive compactness, but the lack of cutting edge up front is a recurring theme. Omar Al-Soma’s ability to fashion chances out of little will be critical if Al Hazem are to spring a surprise.

Al Ahli SC Recent Games:
Al Ahli SC, meanwhile, come in off an eventful 1-3 reverse to Pyramids, though their prior three-match unbeaten run showcased a blend of clinical attacking and tactical maturity. The 4-4-2 Jaissle prefers maximises the width and allows stars like Ivan Toney and Riyad Mahrez to combine centrally and out wide. Their high shot count and ability to draw fouls high up the pitch (five free-kick goals in five matches, two by Toney from dead-ball situations) are standouts. The pulsating 3-3 draw with Al-Hilal underscored their capacity to rally from behind, suggesting a side with both the mentality and quality depth to dominate midfield battles and create abundant scoring chances.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Al-Hazem vs Al Ahli SC stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Al Ahli SC the favourite

• Moneyline Al-Hazem 7.20 | Al Ahli SC 1.38
• Draw 4.90
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.65 | Under 2.5 2.25
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.85 | No 1.90

Bookmakers’ stance is definitive. Al Ahli SC’s short price reflects both their firepower and defensive solidity, while Al-Hazem’s inflated odds (north of 7.0 with most books) signal only a puncher’s chance at an upset. Punters attracted to goals will note both sides’ defensive frailties and Al Ahli’s high conversion rate, making the over 2.5 market tempting. BTTS could land, as Al-Hazem may exploit spaces left with Al Ahli’s pressing, but the away side’s quality should ultimately shine through.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Al-Hazem possible starting eleven

Al-Hazem’s selection here is guided by recent consistency in playing time, especially in defence where a four-man backline has been Kadri’s preference. Varela’s shot-stopping and organisational qualities are vital against Al Ahli’s potent attack. The double pivot in defensive midfield, shielded by Rosier and Sayyali, aims to blunt Al Ahli transitions and provide launchpads going forward. Eyes will be on Omar Al-Soma’s ability to bully defences and sneak in at the far post — if support is forthcoming from Fábio Martins and Saâyoud. A likely formation: 4-2-3-1, focused on compactness.

Al Ahli SC possible starting eleven

Jaissle has built his side around reliability and attacking verve. The defence, anchored by Mendy and flanked by athletic fullbacks, provides both solidity and attacking option. Kessié and Al-Johani orchestrate possession, while Millot and Mahrez (the latter a key creative force) provide supply from the flanks and between the lines. Ivan Toney — outright star thus far — and Al-Buraikan are poised to stretch Al Hazem’s lines. The 4-4-2 should ensure plenty of numbers in advanced areas and enough cover at the back.

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My take on the Match

This is a fixture loaded with subplot and opportunity, but Al Ahli SC’s superiority in nearly every key metric can’t be overstated. With Ivan Toney in irrepressible form and Mahrez pulling the strings, the visitors look set to continue their positive trajectory. Al-Hazem’s resolve shouldn’t be dismissed — Al-Soma could easily snatch a goal — yet one suspects the momentum, pedigree, and squad depth of Al Ahli SC will eventually tell.

My main pick: Al Ahli SC to win and over 2.5 goals in the match. There’s simply too much attacking talent and tactical nous at Jaissle’s disposal for Al-Hazem to stem the tide for the full 90. That said, expect a spirited but ultimately outgunned showing from the hosts. The Pro League continues to grow — and nights like this, with stellar talents on display, underline why.

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