Al Fateh vs Al Ahli SC Prediction: 26.12.2025 Saudi Pro League

This Boxing Day brings a fascinating clash between Al Fateh and Al Ahli SC in the Saudi Pro League. With both teams following altogether different season trajectories, the stage at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Stadium isn’t just set for a festive fixture – it’s a real test of resilience for the hosts and a chance for Al Ahli SC to assert their credentials as true title contenders. Al Fateh are desperate to avoid slipping deeper into the relegation mire, while Al Ahli SC will look to close ground on the runaway top two. What stands out? Al Fateh’s ability to resist even as results elude them, while Al Ahli SC’s firepower can change any match in a blink.

Key players to watch? For Al Fateh, Matías Vargas offers a rare attacking spark and is vital in transition, while for Al Ahli SC, Ivan Toney continues to impress with his clinical edge and link-up play.

The “hot stat”? Al Ahli SC’s last five matches have seen them net a whopping eight goals, a stark contrast to Al Fateh’s struggles in front of goal, making attacking quality a likely decider in this contest.

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Al Fateh vs Al Ahli SC prediction

Al Ahli SC enter as overwhelming favourites not just by bookmaker odds, but on nearly every metric worth measuring. They’ve scored eight times in their last five, showcasing not just depth but energy in the attacking third. Al Fateh, on the other hand, find themselves sailing troubled waters, conceding regularly and with one of the weakest defensive records in the league. The best value here is a straightforward away win – Al Ahli SC possess both the firepower and defensive organisation to control this tie.

The pace of this contest may be dictated by Al Ahli’s possession-oriented style – they racked up over 1076 passes in their last five combined, with 854 completed, reflecting their emphasis on methodical build-up. Al Fateh, meanwhile, have managed a meagre 320 passes over their last five, with a pass accuracy of 263, emphasising the gulf not just in technical quality, but in sustained team shape. Fouls may play a subtle role, with Al Ahli committing 41 fouls in five matches, nearly as many as Al Fateh’s 10. Expect Al Ahli to dominate proceedings, but if frustration creeps in, cards could become a factor.

Team Analysis

Al Fateh: The hosts’ season can be summarised with one word: adversity. Their last league outing, a 2-3 loss to Al Ettifaq, highlighted both their spirit and their frailties. While they did show resilience scoring twice, defensive lapses proved costly – an all-too-familiar theme. Despite a rare win against lowly Al Tadamon (1-0), successive defeats to Al-Hilal (1-4 and 1-2) and the thrashing against Al Taawoun (2-5) underline their struggles against top-half sides. Standout performances are few, but Matías Vargas did pop up with a goal last time out, and Mourad Batna poses a threat when given licence to roam.

Al Ahli SC: Al Ahli are unbeaten in the league, and their recent form under Matthias Jaissle has been positive. They arrive off the back of a 5-0 hammering of Al Shorta, with Ivan Toney bagging a brace and Saleh Aboulshamat registering both a goal and an assist. Their victory over Al Qadsiah (2-1) and a narrow defeat to Raja Casablanca (1-2) show both their attacking prowess and that they’re not infallible. Al Ahli’s balance – combining control from Franck Kessié and invention from Riyad Mahrez – offers them tools to unlock almost any opposition. Their 8-7 epic over Al Qadsiah further highlights their ability to outscore when needed, even if defensive lapses crop up.

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🚨Read our full Al Fateh vs Al Ahli SC stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Al Ahli SC the favourite

• Moneyline Al Fateh 5.16 | Al Ahli SC 1.50
• Draw 4.40
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.75 | Under 2.5 2.12
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.10 | No 1.78

Given Al Ahli’s relentless attacking output and defensive organisation, the odds reflect a logical hierarchy. Al Fateh’s inconsistency and leaky defence make them clear underdogs, while Al Ahli SC’s recent away form and squad depth justify their strong favourite status. There’s value in siding with Al Ahli on the Asian Handicap as well, especially considering Al Fateh’s difficulties against top-half teams. The Over 2.5 goals market offers appeal, too, given Al Ahli’s goal glut and Al Fateh’s defensive record.

You can find all our predictions for today’s games on our football betting tips page.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Al Fateh possible starting eleven

The likely 4-1-4-1 formation grants some security at the back while asking the central midfield trio to cover plenty of ground. Fernando Pacheco takes his place between the sticks as a shot-stopper with experience. Youssouf sits in the holding role, providing ballast for Bendebka and Khalid’s forward forays. Vargas and Batna are tasked with providing the attacking thrust, while Saad Al-Shurafa is likely given the nod up front for his mobility and recent assist. Vargas, in particular, is worth keeping an eye on – if he gets service, he can trouble even this Al Ahli defence.

Al Ahli SC possible starting eleven

Matthias Jaissle favours a dynamic 4-2-3-1 set-up. Edouard Mendy, returning after recent rotation, adds top-level security in goal. The centre-back tandem of Ibañez and Demiral offers a fusion of athleticism and composure. Kessié and Al-Johani orchestrate midfield play, with Atangana providing box-to-box energy. Up front, Ivan Toney’s physicality, Mahrez’s creativity, and Galeno’s unpredictability make them almost irresistible. Ivan Toney is the pivotal figure here – not only in front of goal but also linking up with runners behind Al Fateh’s lines, making him a primary threat this round.

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The Verdict

Prediction: Al Ahli SC to win comfortably, likely by two or more goals. While Al Fateh have shown the odd spark, their defensive frailties and lack of consistent attacking threat make a result against this Al Ahli side improbable. Al Ahli’s recent form, squad quality, and tactical variety put them firmly in the driver’s seat. Expect Ivan Toney to be amongst the goals, while Franck Kessié and Riyad Mahrez control the tempo in midfield. For Al Fateh, it’s about restoring pride and stability – but survival will depend on picking up points elsewhere. We will be watching not just for three points, but for a statement from an Al Ahli SC side keen to keep pressure on the top two.

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