Rafael Nogueira
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Al Fateh sit bottom of the Saudi Pro League table without a single win through seven rounds, and their home form offers little hope against a visiting side that has climbed to sixth. Al Ahli SC travel to Hasa off the back of a solid month and with Ivan Toney in red-hot scoring touch. The gulf between these two clubs right now is as wide as the table suggests, and we think the numbers back that gap up rather than contradict it.
Watch Ivan Toney closely. He has scored four goals and added an assist across his last five appearances for Al Ahli SC, and his movement in the box has been the single biggest difference-maker for Pusic’s side. On the other side, Mourad Batna carries most of Al Fateh’s attacking weight, contributing a goal and an assist in his last two outings, a rare bright spot for a side starved of chances.
Hot stat: Al Fateh remain the only club in the 2026/27 Saudi Pro League yet to register a single win, taking just 3 points from 7 matches while scoring only 4 goals all season, a tally lower than every other side in the division.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Saudi Pro League 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Stadium, Hasa |
| 🗓️ Date: | 09.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 16:55 CEST |
Al Fateh vs Al Ahli SC prediction
Our pick here is Al Ahli SC to win, and we lean toward backing them on the Asian handicap rather than the plain moneyline given the short price on offer. Al Fateh have won zero of their last eight matches in all competitions, drawing three and losing five, while Al Ahli SC have four wins from nine in the same stretch. The form curves are heading in opposite directions, and nothing in Al Fateh’s underlying numbers, just 4 goals and 11 conceded in seven league games, suggests they can slow down a side averaging over two goals a match.
Al Ahli SC’s attacking numbers (64 shots, 20 corners, 1517 passes across their last five games) dwarf Al Fateh’s output (26 shots, 8 corners, 748 passes). Pass accuracy favors the hosts slightly on paper, around 86% against Al Ahli SC’s 83%, but that reflects a side playing safe, low-tempo football rather than one creating danger. Al Ahli SC commit more fouls (62 to 18) and pick up more cards (7 to 4) simply because they spend far more time in possession and pressing high, a pattern we expect to repeat here, with Al Fateh forced into a deeper, more reactive shape.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Al Ahli SC -1.5 Asian Handicap |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Al Fateh have not tasted victory in their last eight outings, a run that includes three draws and five defeats. Their most recent match ended 2-4 against Neom SC, a game where they conceded four goals despite scoring twice, a pattern of defensive fragility that has defined their campaign. Before that they lost 1-2 to Al Diriyah and drew blank with Al Taawoun and Al Ittihad, showing flashes of resilience without ever finding the win column. Khaled Al-Atwi’s side sits last with 3 points from 7 matches, and their inability to close games out, even when scoring, is the clearest warning sign heading into this fixture.
Al Ahli SC enter this match having dropped a 1-2 decision to Mamelodi Sundowns in their most recent outing, a rare blemish in an otherwise productive run. Before that they drew 1-1 with Pakhtakor, beat Al-Hazem 3-1, lost 2-3 to Al Qadsiah and thrashed Al-Riyadh 5-0. Four wins and a draw against one loss across their last five shows a side capable of scoring heavily, as the 5-0 and 3-1 results prove, even if their defense has occasionally been caught out. Marino Pusic’s men sit sixth in the table with 12 points from 7 games, well placed to climb further with a result here.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Al Fateh | Al Ahli SC |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 4 | 6 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Al Fateh vs Al Ahli SC stats page for more info.
Al Fateh. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Al Ahli SC the favourite
- Moneyline Al Fateh 5.84 | Al Ahli SC 1.41
- Draw 5.05
Bookmakers give Al Ahli SC roughly a 65% chance of winning, with Al Fateh at just 16% and the draw around 19%. Those numbers line up with everything we see in the squad quality, recent form and attacking output. We see no value backing the hosts outright here, though the draw at over 5.00 could tempt stubborn bettors given Al Fateh’s habit of grinding out stalemates against mid-table sides earlier this season.
Possible Starting Lineups
Al Fateh possible starting eleven
- GK: Adrian Šemper
- DF: Ziyad Maher Al Jari, Sattam Tumbukti, Abdul Rahman Al Khaibari, Abdulelah Al Khaibari
- MF: Zaydou Youssouf, Mihai Lixandru, Lukáš Haraslín, Ali Al-Hassan, Faisal Abdulwahed
- FW: Wilfried Kanga
Al-Atwi should stick with the 4-1-4-1 shape used in recent matches, with Youssouf screening the back four and Haraslín providing the main creative spark out wide. Kanga leads the line alone and needs more service than he has received lately, while Batna waits as the clear impact option off the bench.
Al Ahli SC possible starting eleven
- GK: Edouard Mendy
- DF: Roger Ibañez, Merih Demiral, Rayan Hamed Hamidou, Saad Yaslam Balobaid
- MF: Valentin Atangana Edoa, Eduard Spertsyan, Francisco Trincão, Saleh Aboulshamat, Wenderson Galeno
- FW: Ivan Toney
Pusic has settled on a 4-2-3-1 built around his double pivot of Atangana Edoa and Spertsyan, freeing Trincão to operate behind Toney. Mendy’s experience anchors a back line that has started every one of the last five matches together, and Toney’s finishing is the focal point of everything Al Ahli SC try to create.
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Al Ahli SC. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Al Ahli SC to win comfortably, perhaps by two goals or more given Al Fateh’s defensive record of conceding 11 goals in 7 league matches. Toney’s scoring form, combined with Al Fateh’s complete lack of a win this season, points firmly toward the away side. To be honest, the only concern for backing Al Ahli SC heavily is price, which is why we favor the -1.5 handicap over a straight moneyline bet, paired with Over 2.5 goals and BTTS Yes given both sides have shown they can score against weaker defensive structures.
