Liam Duckstein
The Saudi Pro League throws up another intriguing contest at the King Abdullah Sports City as title-chasing Al Ahli SC host a hungry Neom SC. With Matthias Jaissle’s men already flexing their attacking muscles this season and Christophe Galtier’s Neom side still chasing their first win in this year’s campaign, this fixture carries significant weight for both teams’ momentum. In a league where form can swing rapidly, Al Ahli’s recent barnstorming win over Al Nassr (7-5!) serves as both a warning and a statement.
All eyes will be on Al Ahli’s Ivan Toney, whose mix of physicality and finishing instincts make him a handful for any defence, while Neom’s best hopes may hinge on their creative playmaker in midfield. On the wings, Riyad Mahrez remains dangerous, his clinical passing and decision making producing three assists in his last two outings. Yet with Edouard Mendy orchestrating from the back, the foundation looks strong for the home side.
If there’s a “hot stat” to notice, it’s Al Ahli’s formidable 70 percent win rate in 2025, a benchmark of consistency that Neom have yet to get near this season.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Saudi Pro League 2025/26 (Regular Season) |
| 🏟 Venue: | King Abdullah Sports City, Jeddah |
| 🗓️ Date: | 28 August 2025 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
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Al Ahli SC vs Neom SC prediction
Given the gulf in present form and attacking firepower, the best value prediction leans firmly toward Al Ahli SC securing all three points. Their creative core, led by Franck Kessié’s dynamic surges from midfield and reinforced by Mahrez’s wing play and Toney’s movement, should find plenty of joy against a Neom defence still searching for rhythm. If Neom do pull something off, it’ll hinge on their organisation and ability to frustrate early on.
From a stylistic viewpoint, Al Ahli are not shy about possession, boasting extensive ball control in their matches (averaging nearly 700 passes per game) and utilising overlapping wing-backs in a fluid 3-5-2. With 22 total fouls and 6 yellows across five matches, Jaissle’s men don’t back down from physical duels, either. Neom, by contrast, have struggled mightily for both creativity and discipline—recording zero goals, cards, or even key attacking stats in their last five games—a damning sign for their ambitions here. Expect Al Ahli to dictate the flow, with Neom sitting deep and perhaps aiming to nick a goal on the break, but genuine evidence for an upset is thin.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Asian Handicap Al Ahli SC -1.5 |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Al Ahli SC recent games: The 7-5 victory over Al Nassr is a testament to their attacking edge, with goals flowing freely across the front line but also hinting at defensive frailty when pressed. Backed by a 5-1 dismantling of Al Qadsiah and credible draws against mid-table Al-Riyadh and Al Ain, Jaissle’s side demonstrate resilience and a measured attack-first approach. The form guide is enviable: four wins and two draws in their last six, with 26 wins out of 37 this year—credential enough for a serious title challenge.
Neom SC recent games: Neom’s campaign, on the other hand, is one of transition and frustration. Their last four matches have seen three goalless draws (vs Cartagena, Valencia B, and Roma) and a 0-2 loss to Al Rayyan. The lack of attacking output—zero goals, barely a shot on target—paints a picture of a side in desperate need of structure and variety in attack. Christophe Galtier has work to do to turn these stalemates into wins and inject self-belief into his squad.
🚨Read our full Al Ahli SC vs Neom SC stats for more analysis.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Al Ahli SC the favourite
- Moneyline Al Ahli SC 1.50 | Neom SC 6.00
- Draw 4.30
- Over/Under Over 2.5 1.70 | Under 2.5 2.10
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.10 | No 1.60
The bookmakers have made their stance clear—Al Ahli SC are overwhelming favourites, and rightly so. A price of 1.50 for the home win mirrors their recent dominance and attacking sharpness. Neom, meanwhile, are languishing at 6.00 for the win, signalling how unlikely the upset seems given their barren run in front of goal. Over 2.5 goals looks solid considering Al Ahli’s offensive output of late, but the odds also tell us there’s an expectation Neom’s struggles to find the net may persist (BTTS “No” at 1.60 is tempting).
You can find all our predictions for today’s games on our football betting tips page.
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Possible Starting Lineups
Al Ahli SC possible starting eleven
- GK: Edouard Mendy
- DF: Roger Ibañez, Merih Demiral, Matteo Dams
- MF: Franck Kessié, Enzo Millot, Ali Majrashi, Rayan Hamed Hamidou, Saleh Aboulshamat
- FW: Ivan Toney, Riyad Mahrez
This 3-5-2 set-up maximises Al Ahli’s strengths—the defensive trio offer a blend of physicality and composure, especially Demiral’s presence. Kessié’s late runs and grit in midfield, plus Enzo Millot’s creativity, are key, while Mahrez and Toney provide a sharp, mobile forward pairing. Mendy remains a stabilising influence at the back, and expect plenty of width from the wing-backs, with Mahrez drifting inside- right where he does his best work.
Given limited data on Neom’s individual players, Galtier likely sticks with a 4-2-3-1, hoping for midfield discipline and swift counters. The backline will need to be brave and compact, while the midfield three must work overtime to close out Al Ahli’s passing lanes. With attacking form missing, the focus shifts to organisation and patience. If Neom are to threaten, it’ll be through unity and perhaps exploiting Al Ahli’s defensive gaps on the break.
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Neom SC. Source: Official Instagram. Edited photo
The Verdict
My primary prediction for this contest is a solid Al Ahli SC victory, and not just because the bookmakers expect it! The comprehensive data points to a side in top gear—dynamic going forward, robust in midfield, and possessing the confidence emboldened by recent results. Expect fireworks from Mahrez and Toney up top, and should things go against script, it’ll only be because Neom manage to turn an ultra-defensive plan into attacking efficiency for the first time this season. For now, though, all evidence suggests it’s Al Ahli’s night—and the home crowd could be roaring all the way into September.
