Arjun Menon
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Al Ahli SC host Al-Riyadh at Prince Abdullah Al-Faisal Sports City Stadium in Jeddah on September 4, in what is an early-season Saudi Pro League clash that carries more weight than the table positions might suggest. Al Ahli sit 7th with 6 points from 4 games, while Al-Riyadh are 12th on 4 points, already showing a goal difference of -5. The interesting detail here is that Al Ahli have won all four of their previous competitive meetings with Al-Riyadh, including a dominant 5-0 win back in January 2025.
Ivan Toney has been the standout performer for Al Ahli in recent weeks, scoring 4 goals across his last 4 appearances with 11 shots in that stretch. For Al-Riyadh, Mahmoud Trezeguet has been involved in three goals in his last five outings, combining well with Leandro Antunes, who has netted 3 times in the same period.
A hot stat worth noting: Al Ahli have registered 77 total shots across their last five matches. That is a significantly higher output than Al-Riyadh’s 50 in the same span, underlining the attacking dominance Marino Pusic’s side has shown even when results have been mixed.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Saudi Pro League 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Prince Abdullah Al-Faisal Sports City Stadium, Jeddah |
| 🗓️ Date: | 04.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:00 CEST |
Al Ahli SC vs Al-Riyadh prediction
Al Ahli SC are clear favourites here, and the data backs that up. They hold a 70% win probability according to bookmakers, and their head-to-head record against Al-Riyadh is perfect across the last four meetings. Playing at home in Jeddah adds to the advantage. We predict an Al Ahli SC win, and the most straightforward route is backing them on the moneyline.
Al Ahli average a higher pass accuracy and generate far more shots per game than Al-Riyadh. Al-Riyadh, to be honest, have been leaky at the back, conceding 11 goals in just 4 league games this season. Al Ahli’s 4-2-3-1 structure gives them control in midfield, with Spertsyan pulling strings from deep and Toney leading the line. Al-Riyadh’s 4-3-3 can cause problems on the break, but their 2 red cards in the last five games suggests discipline is an issue.
Al-Riyadh commit 60 fouls across 5 matches and carry 7 yellow cards in that span. Victor Lekhal alone has picked up 3 yellows in 3 games. Al Ahli are no strangers to set-pieces either, earning 61 free kicks in the same window. That aggression from the visitors could open up space for Al Ahli to punish them, particularly from dead-ball situations.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Al Ahli SC to win both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Al Ahli SC have had a bumpy ride lately. Their last five matches include a heavy 0-3 loss to Al-Hilal and a 1-3 defeat to Al Kholood, but also a 4-0 win over Abha and a narrow 1-0 win over Auckland FC in what appears to be a cup fixture. The inconsistency is real, but the quality gap between Al Ahli and Al-Riyadh is significant enough to lean on the home side. Their attacking numbers remain strong regardless of results, and Pusic will know this is a winnable fixture. The 1-3 defeat to Al Kholood was the most surprising result in that run, with Al Ahli producing shots but failing to convert, suggesting an underlying performance level that is better than the scoreline showed.
Al-Riyadh’s recent form has been a patchwork of contrasting performances. They beat Neom SC 1-0 in their most recent outing, which was a positive result, but that followed a 3-3 draw with Al Shabab and a 0-4 thrashing by Al Nassr. The win over Al Zulfi also boosted their confidence earlier in the run. Maurício Dulac’s side can score, having put 8 goals in their last five games, but the 11 conceded in the same period tells the real story. Their defensive structure is fragile, and away from home against a well-organised Al Ahli side, that weakness becomes even more exposed.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Al Ahli SC | Al-Riyadh |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 8 | 1 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Al Ahli SC vs Al-Riyadh stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Al Ahli SC the favourite
- Moneyline Al Ahli SC 1.28 | Al-Riyadh 6.50
- Draw 5.00
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The odds on Al Ahli are tight at around 1.28, which reflects how one-sided the bookmakers see this contest. Al-Riyadh at 6.50 is a long shot, and with their goal difference of -5 and defensive record this season, that price feels fair. The draw at 5.00 is not particularly attractive either, given Al Ahli have not drawn a single match in their last 7 outings. We see value in backing Al Ahli to win, and also in the over 2.5 goals market given both sides have been involved in high-scoring games recently.
Possible Starting Lineups
Al Ahli SC possible starting eleven
- GK: Edouard Mendy
- DF: Roger Ibañez, Merih Demiral, Zakaria Hawsawi, Rayan Hamed Hamidou
- MF: Valentin Atangana Edoa, Ziyad Al-Johani, Eduard Spertsyan, Francisco Trincão
- FW: Ivan Toney, Wenderson Galeno
Mendy starts between the sticks with 9 saves across 4 appearances, making him the clear first choice over Abdulrahman Al-Sanbi. The back four picks itself, with Ibañez and Demiral as the central pairing and Hawsawi and Hamidou on the flanks. Atangana Edoa anchors the midfield with 10 interceptions in 5 games, while Spertsyan operates as the creative engine with 4 assists and a goal. Trincão adds width and carries a goal threat from midfield. Up top, Toney is the focal point, and Galeno provides pace and directness from the left. The 4-2-3-1 suits this personnel well and gives Al Ahli both defensive solidity and attacking variety.
Al-Riyadh possible starting eleven
- GK: Milan Borjan
- DF: Mohammed Al-Khaibari, Sultan Al-Essa, Sulaiman Hazazi, Rodrigo Abascal
- MF: Bernard Mensah, Fahad Mohammed Al-Jayzani, Faisal Ali Muslim Al Subhi
- FW: Mahmoud Trezeguet, Leandro Antunes, Teddy Okou
Borjan is the undisputed starter in goal with 19 saves in 5 matches, which actually highlights how often Al-Riyadh are under pressure. The defensive line features Sultan Al-Essa with 10 interceptions, the most of any outfield player in the squad. Mensah provides energy and creativity in midfield with 2 assists and a goal, while Trezeguet and Antunes form a genuine attacking threat. Okou has scored 3 goals in 5 games and should start wide in the 4-3-3. Dulac will likely keep this structure and rely on quick transitions to trouble Al Ahli on the break.
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Al-Riyadh. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
Al Ahli SC should win this match. Their head-to-head record is spotless against Al-Riyadh, their shot volume is significantly higher, and they have the individual quality in Toney and Spertsyan to break down a defence that has conceded 11 times in 4 league games. Al-Riyadh can score, and Borjan will be tested, but the visitors’ defensive issues are too consistent to ignore.
We predict an Al Ahli SC win with both teams scoring. Al-Riyadh’s attacking trio of Trezeguet, Antunes, and Okou gives them enough to get on the scoresheet, but Al Ahli should have enough control and firepower to come out on top. The “Al Ahli to win both halves” tip carries real appeal given how dominant they tend to start matches at home, and over 2.5 goals looks well-supported by both teams’ recent scoring patterns.
