Al Ahli SC vs Al Qadsiah Prediction: 21.11.2025 Saudi Pro League Preview

The Saudi Pro League returns with a compelling Regular Season clash as Al Ahli SC host Al Qadsiah at the King Abdullah Sports City in Jeddah. Both sides are off to strong starts this season, separated by just a single point and occupying fourth and fifth places in the standings. Al Ahli SC remain unbeaten and will look to assert their home advantage. Conversely, Al Qadsiah find themselves high on confidence after a resilient recent run but have struggled to dominate against this level of opposition historically. It’s a tactical faceoff between two progressive managers, Matthias Jaissle and Míchel, with both sides sticking close to the classic 4-4-2 while adapting to dynamic in-game scenarios.

Key players to watch include Riyad Mahrez for Al Ahli SC, who’s crucial both as a goal threat and an experienced creator on the right, and Mateo Retegui for Al Qadsiah—currently their most clinical finisher, with three goals from his last four appearances. Both have the ability to influence the scoreline decisively.

A noteworthy “hot stat”: Al Qadsiah have won just once in their last five encounters with Al Ahli SC, and when these teams last met in the Saudi Super Cup Semifinals, Al Ahli registered an emphatic 5-1 win.

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Al Ahli SC vs Al Qadsiah prediction

Given their recent form, unbeaten record, and a home crowd behind them, Al Ahli SC are slight favourites. Their defensive structure under Matthias Jaissle has been compact, while their 4-4-2 setup allows flexibility on the transitions, particularly on the flanks. Al Qadsiah, under Míchel, have a higher offensive output in terms of shots and corners but sometimes leave space in the midfield, which an organized side like Al Ahli can exploit.

Expect a tightly contested encounter with Al Ahli’s solid ball retention (78% pass accuracy in the last five matches) coming up against Al Qadsiah’s more direct, energetic style (securing 35 corners in five matches, the highest in the league section). Notably, while Al Ahli have accumulated more yellow cards (13 to Qadsiah’s 6), showing their willingness to break up play, this slight risk could provide openings for Qadsiah on the counter if discipline waivers.

Team Analysis

Al Ahli SC: Coming off a hard-fought 1-0 win over Al Ittihad, Al Ahli continue to display defensive maturity and resilience. That match typified their approach—strong midfield control, smart game management after taking the lead, and disciplined defending to see out the result. Their last five matches provide evidence of their consistency: a mixture of wins and a couple of draws, but importantly, no losses and just five goals conceded. Their midfield pairing, notably Kessié and Mahrez, plays a key role in transitions, while the defensive partnership of Ibañez and Demiral keeps things tight at the back.

Al Qadsiah: Al Qadsiah put in an emphatic performance with a 4-0 win over Al Kholood in their latest outing. Retegui and Nahitan Nández shone, with Qadsiah’s creativity resulting in a high shot total and consistent threat at set pieces. Their only recent loss (0-2 to Al Taawoun) displays a potential vulnerability against teams that maintain high possession and disciplined pressing, something Al Ahli SC could replicate. While their attacking output has been impressive, with 35 corners and 49 total fouls indicating proactive play, defensive discipline could be an issue under sustained pressure.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Al Ahli SC vs Al Qadsiah stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Al Ahli SC the favourite

• Moneyline Al Ahli SC 1.98 | Al Qadsiah 3.47
• Draw 3.60
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.93 | Under 2.5 1.80
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.65 | No 2.10

These odds reflect Al Ahli’s slight edge in home advantage and unbeaten status. However, with Al Qadsiah’s forceful approach and their ability to find goals against strong sides, markets acknowledge the chance of a close contest and place notable value on both teams to score. The narrow gap between the sides in terms of points and overall quality is well captured in the balanced odds—value hunters may be particularly interested in a goals market over the outright result.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Al Ahli SC possible starting eleven

• GK: Edouard Mendy
• DF: Roger Ibañez, Merih Demiral, Ali Majrashi, Mohammed Sulaiman
• MF: Franck Kessié, Enzo Millot, Valentin Atangana Edoa, Riyad Mahrez
• FW: Ivan Toney, Firas Al-Buraikan

Al Ahli’s likely 4-4-2 formation features Edouard Mendy as the safe pair of hands, with Ibañez and Demiral providing aerial presence and defensive solidity. The full-backs overlap well to supplement attack, while Kessié and Millot marshal the midfield. Riyad Mahrez’s creativity and experience is essential on the flank, with Toney and Al-Buraikan forming a potent strike partnership. Watch for Millot’s ability to break lines and Mahrez’s leadership in transitions.

Al Qadsiah possible starting eleven

• GK: Koen Casteels
• DF: Nacho Fernández, Gastón Álvarez, Yasir Al-Shahrani, Mohammed Waheeb Saleh Abu Al Shamat
• MF: Nahitan Nández, Julian Weigl, Musab Al-Juwayr, Otávio
• FW: Mateo Retegui, Christopher Bonsu Baah

Koen Casteels is expected to stand between the sticks, shielded by Nacho, Álvarez, Al-Shahrani, and Abu Al Shamat — providing balance and ball advancement from the rear. Nández injects energy and pressing, while Weigl dictates tempo and Otávio provides creative impetus. Retegui and Bonsu Baah lead the line; the latter’s flair adds unpredictability. This lineup supports a physically intense version of 4-4-2, focused on transitions and high pressing.

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My take on the Match

With both teams on strong form, this fixture promises a high-intensity midfield battle and offensive enterprise. Al Ahli SC have demonstrated greater defensive strength and tactical discipline, which should tilt the tie in their favour. However, the attacking flair of Retegui and Qadsiah’s set-piece threat ensures they’ll have opportunities to strike. My main pick is Al Ahli SC to win with both teams scoring, leveraging their home edge and unbeaten record but acknowledging the threat Qadsiah pose. Expect an open contest, likely to produce goals and moments of individual brilliance—especially from Mahrez and Retegui.

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