Arjun Menon
Jeddah braces for a contest charged with imbalance on 16 May as Al Ahli SC, the league’s technical and possession-heavy third-placed side, hosts a struggling Al Kholood at King Abdullah Sports City Hall Stadium. The stakes for Al Ahli are clear—consolidate their position near the top and chase the leaders, while Al Kholood cling to mathematical safety. The gulf in recent form is glaring, but one subplot brews: Al Ahli’s Ivan Toney, whose four goals in the last five matches have powered their charge, faces a resilient defense marshaled by Shaquille Pinas for Al Kholood. The latter’s passing numbers look ordinary, but Pinas’s sheer work rate and blocks have plugged many leaks.
Hot stat? Al Ahli have netted 10 goals in their last five matches, with Toney directly involved in almost half. Al Kholood, by contrast, have scored only twice in the same span.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Saudi Pro League 2025/26 Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | King Abdullah Sports City Hall Stadium, Jeddah |
| 🗓️ Date: | 16.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:00 CEST |
Al Ahli SC vs Al Kholood prediction
The best value on this fixture? Al Ahli SC to win with a handicap of -1.5. The numbers justify this pick—Al Ahli have a 75% win rate in their last 30 days, compared to Al Kholood’s 0%. The home side’s attack is sharp, creative, and supported by relentless midfielders like Franck Kessié and Valentin Atangana Edoa. They play a patient game, passing nearly 1500 times in the last five outings with almost 80% accuracy, frequently probing for defensive lapses.
Al Kholood? They defend deep, clear their lines often, and rarely commit numbers forward. The 37 fouls in their last five matches show their approach—stop play, break rhythm, stay compact. With only 7 yellow cards in the same span, they balance aggression and discipline, but this style often leaves their front line isolated.
Expect Al Ahli to dominate the ball, force set pieces, and pin Al Kholood back for long stretches. The visitors’ low shot count (32 in five matches) hints at their lack of cutting edge.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Al Ahli SC to win & Over 2.5 goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Al Ahli SC’s last match saw them edge Al Taawoun 2-1. Toney was relentless up front, constantly shifting defenders out of position. Kessié’s movement between lines caused problems and created openings. Al Ahli’s tendency to spread the play wide, recycle possession, and overload the flanks resulted in 65 total shots across their last five matches. Their defense rarely panics, with Demiral and Ibañez intercepting and clearing threats quickly.
Al Kholood’s most recent outing—a goalless draw with Al Akhdoud—was a drab affair. They sat deep, barely threatened, and allowed their goalkeeper, Juan Cozzani, to become the busiest player. Buckley’s passing in midfield kept them ticking, but their attack produced just 2 goals from 32 shots in their last five. They often struggle to link midfield and attack, and their 31 interceptions suggest a focus on breaking up play rather than building anything substantial.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Al Ahli SC | Al Kholood |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 10 | 2 |
| Total shots | 65 | 32 |
| Free kicks | 15 | 4 |
| Corner kicks | 16 | 12 |
| Total fouls | 66 | 37 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 80.3 | 83.6 |
| Interceptions | 34 | 31 |
| Offsides | 15 | 4 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Al Ahli SC vs Al Kholood stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Al Ahli SC the favourite
- Moneyline Al Ahli SC 1.07–1.24 | Al Kholood 9.50–11.23
- Draw 5.50–6.60
- Over/Under Over 2.5 1.44 | Under 2.5 2.50
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.40 | No 1.48
The market leans almost entirely toward Al Ahli SC, and for good reason: the hosts have scored 10 in five matches, Al Kholood just two. Al Ahli’s attacking consistency, home form, and the visitors’ inability to turn draws into wins make the short price justified. The over 2.5 goals market sits at a modest 1.44, reflecting the expectation of a high-scoring home win. “Both teams to score: No” offers value at 1.48 considering Kholood’s scoring drought. Draw odds are high, and there’s a reason for that. We think Al Ahli will control this, maybe even without reply.
Al Kholood. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Al Ahli SC possible starting eleven
- GK: Edouard Mendy
- DF: Roger Ibañez, Ali Majrashi, Rayan Hamed Hamidou, Merih Demiral
- MF: Franck Kessié, Enzo Millot, Valentin Atangana Edoa
- FW: Riyad Mahrez, Ivan Toney, Firas Al-Buraikan
Mendy’s command in goal gives security, Ibañez and Demiral are tough to break down. Kessié and Millot control tempo, Atangana Edoa pushes box to box. Up front, Toney is the clear dangerman, flanked by Mahrez and Al-Buraikan for width and speed. This 4-2-3-1 (with one holding, two more advanced midfielders) is their go-to. We think Toney is the player to watch—unstoppable lately, he’s unpredictable in the box.
Al Kholood possible starting eleven
- GK: Juan Cozzani
- DF: Shaquille Pinas, Norbert Gyömbér, Edgaras Utkus, Sultan Al Shehri
- MF: John Buckley, Abdulrahman Al-Dosari, Iker Kortajarena Canellada
- FW: Hattan Bahebri, Gustavo Gouveia Rodrigues Cruz, Ramiro Enrique
Cozzani is always busy, his defense—led by Pinas—gets little rest. Utkus is a relentless interceptor, Gyömbér steady. In midfield, Buckley covers ground but can’t do it all. Kortajarena’s bursts forward may help, but goals have dried up. The 4-2-3-1 here is more about containment than creation. Maybe Bahebri springs a surprise, but honestly, there’s not much optimism for a Kholood goal.
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Al Ahli SC. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Al Ahli SC outgun, outpass, and outlast opponents in this part of the table. Kholood don’t have the structure or form to hold them back. Toney’s streak, Mahrez’s trickery, and a rock-solid back line spell trouble for the visitors. Our team thinks a 3-0 or 4-0 is on the cards, maybe even more if Al Kholood open up in desperation. Don’t expect fireworks from the away side. The numbers say Al Ahli by a landslide.
