Al Ahli SC vs Al Ittihad Prediction: 06.03.2026 Saudi Pro League

The much-anticipated Jeddah derby between Al Ahli SC and Al Ittihad arrives at a pivotal point of the Saudi Pro League’s regular season. Both teams are targeting a strong finish, but their motivations and recent trajectories set the stage for a fascinating tactical contest. Al Ahli SC, guided by Matthias Jaissle, have established themselves as one of the season’s most consistent outfits, while Sérgio Conceição’s Al Ittihad are seeking to reclaim lost ground after a mixed run of results. With both clubs fielding several high-profile talents and fighting for bragging rights—and critical points—the clash promises not just citywide significance, but also wider implications for the league standings.

A close look at the squads reveals that Ivan Toney’s sharp instincts and clinical finishing for Al Ahli SC could make the decisive impact up top, while Mahamadou Doumbia’s dynamic midfield presence for Al Ittihad offers box-to-box influence and crucial ball recoveries. Both players are key strategic assets whose performances may well swing the contest.

Hot stat: Al Ahli SC are unbeaten in their last 15 league matches this season, boasting a remarkable 87% win rate. Their consistent defensive discipline—just 15 goals conceded in 24 matches—stands in sharp contrast to Al Ittihad, who have taken just eight wins from their last fifteen and conceded almost twice as many goals.

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Al Ahli SC vs Al Ittihad prediction

Based on comprehensive squad analysis, recent form, and key match statistics, the most value-oriented prediction for this derby is a victory for Al Ahli SC. Their attacking output, led by Ivan Toney (four goals in the last five games) and Riyad Mahrez’s creative supply line (four assists), combined with a tight defensive record, provide them with a considerable edge—especially at home. Al Ittihad are resilient and boast quality in transition through Mahamadou Doumbia, yet have conceded 28 goals in 24 matches and recorded only two shutouts in their last five. The hosts’ superior pass accuracy (78 percent vs. 57 percent for Al Ittihad) and higher volume of total shots highlight their dominance in possession and chance creation.

Both teams favor progressive, attacking styles—Al Ahli SC’s 4-2-3-1 allows for compact transitions and supports their low concession rate, while Al Ittihad’s more open 4-3-3 seeks to exploit space but has at times left them vulnerable, as evidenced by their higher card count (10 yellows, 1 red in last five games). With both teams averaging above six corners per match but Al Ittihad registering more fouls and less precise passing, set pieces could further tilt the odds toward the more structured hosts. Expect a lively contest with significant midfield battles and rapid transitional play—but the balance of evidence leans solidly towards Al Ahli SC.

Team Analysis

Al Ahli SC have continued their impressive run, recently securing a 1-0 victory over Al-Riyadh—a match dictated by disciplined defending and effective ball retention (78 percent pass accuracy). The team’s tactical fluidity was on display throughout, as Jaissle’s side blended patient build-up play with incisive attacking thrusts, netting 15 goals in their last five matches. Ivan Toney’s efficiency in and around the penalty area alongside Mahrez’s vision has repeatedly unlocked opposition backlines. Their commitment to collective defense was also crucial, with 44 interceptions in the last five outings and a minimal 6 yellow cards issued, showcasing controlled aggression.

Al Ittihad enter the fixture following a tight 1-0 victory against Al Khaleej. Although their five-game return of nine goals signals a dip relative to Al Ahli SC, their ability to grind out results remains notable. Conceição’s team relies on Doumbia’s recovery work and Youssef En-Nesyri’s threat up front, but they have struggled with discipline (10 yellow cards, one sending off in their last five), and ball retention remains an issue. Despite recording 45 interceptions over five matches, their lower pass accuracy has often led to possession turnovers in dangerous areas. Nonetheless, Al Ittihad’s pace on the counter can trouble any defense when given space.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Al Ahli SC vs Al Ittihad stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Al Ahli SC the favourite

• Moneyline Al Ahli SC 1.81 | Al Ittihad 3.90
• Draw 3.83
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.68 | Under 2.5 2.05
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.65 | No 2.25

Al Ahli SC’s commanding home win rate and recent form justify their status as favourites, reflected in the average 1.81 odds across major bookmakers. With the draw carrying a slightly high implied probability and Al Ittihad offered at close to 4.00, the markets are clearly leaning towards a home win but respect the competitive nature of the derby. Over 2.5 goals and BTTS are both short-priced, indicating market confidence in attacking play and defensive openness—backed up by the teams’ stats. Given the low price on the home side and potential volatility, handicap betting presents additional value for shrewd punters.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Al Ahli SC possible starting eleven

This lineup maximizes the club’s defensive stability—anchored by the experienced Mendy in goal—with Ibañez’s progressive passing and Kessié’s dual role in midfield. Toney leads the line supported by the creativity of Mahrez and the dynamism of Galeno. Jaissle will likely stick to his preferred 4-2-3-1 formation, using Mahrez to cut inside and create overloads, while Kessié’s presence ensures balance in both attack and defence.

Al Ittihad possible starting eleven

A 4-3-3 shape is expected, with Rajković’s shot-stopping underpinning a back line bolstered by the experienced Pereira and the energetic Mitaj. Fabinho provides a shield in midfield, while Doumbia’s recoveries and Aouar’s creativity drive transitions. The front three are tasked with stretching the defence and exploiting space, but will need to press smartly to keep Al Ahli’s midfield from dictating tempo.

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My take on the Match

My expert pick is a home win for Al Ahli SC. Their robust form, tactical discipline, and attacking quality—particularly the Toney-Mahrez partnership—mark them as rightful favourites against an unpredictable Al Ittihad still searching for consistency. Expect goals, drama, and perhaps late twists characteristic of the Jeddah derby. For bettors, Al Ahli SC’s win and the over 2.5 goals market both look like standout options considering the matchup’s underlying numbers and the open nature of recent encounters.

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