Al Ahli SC vs Al-Hazem Prediction: 05.02.2026 Saudi Pro League Preview

The Saudi Pro League delivers a compelling fixture as third-placed Al Ahli SC take on eleventh-placed Al-Hazem at the King Abdullah Sports City Hall Stadium in Jeddah. This match features two teams with a marked difference in form and ambitions: Al Ahli SC are pursuing the league title with only one defeat in nineteen matches, while Al-Hazem are locked in a battle to claw away from the lower rungs of the table. A notable subplot is the tactical showdown between managers Matthias Jaissle and Jalel Kadri, each bringing distinctive philosophies to a contest that’s not merely a mismatch on paper.

Key players to watch: Ivan Toney, Al Ahli’s prolific forward, boasts 8 goals in his last 5 matches, and his movement has been decisive in breaking open defenses. On the visitors’ side, Abdurahman Al-Dakheel stands out for Al-Hazem, contributing at both ends with strong defensive numbers and even netting a goal recently. Their influence could tip the scale in pivotal moments.

Hot stat: Al Ahli SC have scored 12 goals and conceded just 2 across their last five matches, underpinning their status as the league’s defensive juggernaut with an 86% win rate over the last month.

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Al Ahli SC vs Al-Hazem prediction

Given Al Ahli SC’s imperious recent form, tactical discipline, and home advantage, the most valuable prediction is a home win with a handicap. Their robust defensive record — just 12 goals conceded all season — coupled with an attack led by Ivan Toney and Riyad Mahrez, should comfortably outperform an Al-Hazem side who have won only 25% of their matches this year and have struggled defensively (35 goals conceded).

Al Ahli’s 4-3-3 formation favors possession and quick transitions, evidenced by high shot counts (63 in last five) and 78% pass accuracy. They also draw fouls frequently and rack up corners, key for betting on these markets.
Al Hazem meanwhile use a compact 4-4-2 but struggle with ball retention (69% pass accuracy), amass more fouls, and are prone to defensive lapses with both high foul and interception rates. Expect a physically contested midfield yielding set-piece opportunities, but Al Ahli’s technical margin suggests a multi-goal margin is more likely than a close contest.

Team Analysis

Al Ahli SC Analysis:
In their last fixture, Al Ahli held fellow title-chasers Al Hilal to a disciplined 0-0 draw, demonstrating their resilience and ability to contain the league’s most potent attacks. They followed this with authoritative wins over Al Ettifaq (4-0) and Neom SC (3-0), underlining their attacking depth. Their front line, especially Ivan Toney, is thriving, and midfielders like Franck Kessié are providing both creativity and ball security. The balance between risk and control in their play is one of their biggest competitive advantages.

Al-Hazem Analysis:
Conversely, Al-Hazem’s recent record is less inspiring. A hard-fought 1-1 draw with Al Fateh showed some defensive improvement, but the previous 0-4 rout by Al Shabab and a heavy 1-5 beating against Al Qadsiah exposed significant frailties at the back and issues with succumbing to pressing teams. Their attack is limited but they showed sporadic flashes in the 2-1 win over Damac, although sustainability remains in question against top-three opposition.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Al Ahli SC vs Al-Hazem stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Al Ahli SC the favourite

• Moneyline Al Ahli SC 1.22 – 1.17 | Al-Hazem 9.80 – 13.00
• Draw 5.75 – 6.72
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.65 | Under 2.5 2.10
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.10 | No 1.65

The bookmakers’ odds reflect the real gulf in quality and form between the teams. Al Ahli SC’s dominant results and home advantage make their short price understandable, while the long odds on Al-Hazem highlight their underdog status. Over 2.5 is favored due to Al Ahli’s attacking firepower; both teams to score ‘No’ aligns with Al Ahli’s record of clean sheets and low goals conceded.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Al Ahli SC possible starting eleven

• GK: Edouard Mendy
• DF: Rayan Hamed Hamidou, Ali Majrashi, Roger Ibañez, Zakaria Al Hawsawi
• MF: Franck Kessié, Enzo Millot, Valentin Atangana Edoa
• FW: Riyad Mahrez, Ivan Toney, Wenderson Galeno

Al Ahli SC’s lineup leans into their successful 4-3-3, anchoring defensive stability and creative midfield play. Mendy in goal adds assurance, while Mahrez’s creativity from wide and Toney’s finishing instincts will be focal points in breaking down Al-Hazem. Expect Millot and Atangana Edoa to dictate tempo in midfield, with fullbacks pushing up to overload wide areas.

Al-Hazem possible starting eleven

• GK: Bruno Varela
• DF: Abdurahman Al-Dakheel, Abdullah Ahmed Al Shanqiti, Ahmed Al-Nakhli, Saud Al-Rashid
• MF: Amir Saâyoud, Loreintz Rosier, Ahmed Al-Shamrani, Aboubacar Bah
• FW: Fábio Martins, Yousef Al-Shammari

Al-Hazem’s probable 4-4-2 features key roles for Al-Dakheel and Al-Nakhli in defense, while Amir Saâyoud’s creativity in midfield will be critical if they’re to carve out opportunities. Up front, Fábio Martins has the technique to trouble defenders on counter-attacks, though containing Al Ahli’s midfield will be their toughest challenge. Kadri’s setup will emphasize discipline and compact lines, seeking to frustrate rather than outplay.

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My take on the Match

This fixture looks set for a clear Al Ahli SC win. Their tactical discipline, impressive depth, and attacking firepower — especially at home — are simply beyond what Al-Hazem’s current squad can counter. Expect Al Ahli SC to dictate terms, overwhelm the visitors’ defense, and maintain pressure throughout. My main pick: Al Ahli SC to win by more than one goal, with a strong case for a clean sheet and significant set-piece dominance.

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