Liam Duckstein
The Saudi Pro League’s regular season marches into a pivotal round as Al Ahli SC greet Al-Fayha at Jeddah’s King Abdullah Sports City on April 18th. With Al Ahli battling to cement a top-four finish and keep distance from the chasing pack, every point becomes precious in this tightly contested chase for continental qualification. Al-Fayha, meanwhile, arrive buoyed by recent stability and an eye on climbing away from the relegation fray. With both sides motivated for different reasons, this encounter gains both strategic and symbolic importance in the wider season narrative.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Saudi Pro League 2024/25 Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | King Abdullah Sports City, Jeddah |
| 🗓️ Date: | 18.04.2025 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:20 CEST |
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Al Ahli SC vs Al-Fayha prediction
After comparing the recent form, team statistics, and on-pitch trends, the best value best prediction is a home win favoring Al Ahli SC. The rationale? Al Ahli’s 72% win rate this season dwarfs Al-Fayha’s 33%, and the hosts have outscored and out-passed their rivals by sizable margins. Al Ahli’s greater attacking depth – underscored by options like Mahrez, Kessié, and Ivan Toney – is suited to unpick Al-Fayha’s more reactive setup.
Al Ahli’s possession-heavy 3-4-2-1 shape leans on patient build-up with high ball retention (829 passes in their last 5), while Al-Fayha’s 4-2-3-1 ideology makes them more compact but susceptible to wide overloads and rapid transitions. Of note: Al Ahli average more fouls (30 vs. Al-Fayha’s 24 in the last five), signaling a highly competitive midfield where disciplinary lapses could shape the tempo. Still, expect Al Ahli’s technical edge and finishing ability to make the difference.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Al Ahli SC -1.5 Asian Handicap |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Al Ahli SC: The Jeddah club has rebounded well after a minor stumble, with their most recent matches revealing a resilient core. Notably, they dispatched Al-Raed 2-0 and drew 2-2 with title chasers Al Ittihad. Their attack is firing and defensively, they’re conceding fewer big chances. Ivan Toney’s seamless integration and Roger Ibañez’s dual role as a defensive linchpin and set-piece threat have been vital. Yet, a 1-2 home loss to Al Akhdoud is a warning: if focus drops, even the underdogs can pounce.
Al-Fayha: Confidence is blossoming under Pedro Emanuel. They have lost just once in their last five, highlighted by a gritty 2-1 victory over Al Qadsiah and a 2-0 shutout of Al Ettifaq. Renzo López is in scoring form, and Fashion Sakala remains a creative heartbeat. However, passing and build-up remain weak spots (average pass accuracy 486 in last five matches, much lower than rivals), and defensive lapses against heavyweights (see 0-2 vs. Al-Hilal) persist.
Most recent H2Hs: Al Ahli SC dominates
| Statistic | Al Ahli SC | Al-Fayha |
|---|---|---|
| Total shots | 13 | 7 |
| Free kicks | 12 | 10 |
| Corner kicks | 7 | 4 |
| Total fouls | 14 | 11 |
| Interceptions | 10 | 13 |
🚨Read our full Al Ahli SC vs Al-Fayha stats for more analysis.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Al Ahli SC the favourite
| Moneyline | Al Ahli SC 1.27–1.31 | Al-Fayha 8.50–9.80 | |
|---|---|---|
| Draw | 5.00–5.53 | |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 1.65 | Under 2.5 2.10 | |
| BTTS (both teams to score) | Yes 2.01 | No 1.74 | |
Bookmakers’ consensus gives Al Ahli SC around a 72% victory probability – a clear statistical reflection of their superior form and squad depth. The long odds for Al-Fayha mirror their underdog status, while over 2.5 goals is a rational favorite given Al Ahli’s attacking flair and recent H2H dominance. A draw remains unlikely, but defensive diligence from the visitors could make it a “сага” (tough nut to crack) for stretches.
You can find all our predictions for today’s games on our football betting tips page.
Key Players to Watch
Al Ahli SC: Franck Kessié (MF) – The Ivorian dynamo leads by example, blending defensive steel with late midfield surges and a keen eye for a goal (1 in 2 recently). His passing accuracy (103/120 in split matches) keeps Al Ahli ticking.
Al-Fayha: Renzo López (FW) – Three goals in his last two outings make López the offensive spear for Al-Fayha. His movement stretches back lines and his ability to contest second balls keeps defences alert.
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Possible Starting Lineups
Al Ahli SC possible starting eleven
- GK: Edouard Mendy
- DF: Roger Ibañez, Merih Demiral, Ali Majrashi
- MF: Franck Kessié, Gabriel Veiga, Riyad Mahrez, Sumaihan Al-Nabet
- FW: Firas Al-Buraikan, Ivan Toney, Wenderson Galeno
Jaissle will stick to the proven 3-4-2-1 formation. Mendy anchors in goal, shielded by the athletic Ibañez–Demiral–Majrashi defensive line. Kessié and Veiga form a pivot, Mahrez and Al-Nabet provide width, and the triple threat of Al-Buraikan, Toney, and Galeno offers creativity and goal threat in spades. Expect quick transitions and set-piece danger from Ibañez. Eyes on Ivan Toney, whose clinical finishing could tilt the match.
Al-Fayha possible starting eleven
- GK: Orlando Mosquera
- DF: Sami Al-Khaibary, Chris Smalling, Khalid Al Rammah, Mohammed Al-Baqawi
- MF: Gojko Cimirot, Mansour Al-Bishi, Alejandro Pozuelo, Fashion Sakala, Khalid Al-Kaabi
- FW: Renzo López
Al-Fayha set out in a 4-2-3-1 setup with Mosquera a solid presence in goal, and Smalling bringing leadership at the back. Pozuelo’s passing, Sakala’s surges, and López’s form up top are crucial. The midfield aims to break up play and spring counter attacks. The formation is designed both to absorb pressure and offer quick outlet options, but the challenge remains in establishing lasting midfield control.
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Al-Fayha. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
This match sets up as a quintessential clash of ambition and adversity! Al Ahli’s well-drilled attack, impressive home record, and squad depth make them major favorites. Al-Fayha’s resilience and López’s form offer a puncher’s chance, but barring an early twist, expect the hosts to control possession, create clear chances, and record a comfortable victory. Our main pick: Al Ahli SC to win with a -1.5 Asian Handicap, and a likely multi-goal margin given their recent sharpness, especially at King Abdullah Sports City.
