Al Ahli SC vs Al Ettifaq Prediction: 22.05.2025 Saudi Pro League Preview

With the Saudi Pro League’s regular season stretching towards its dramatic finale, Al Ahli SC square off against Al Ettifaq in Jeddah—a fixture simmering with subplots on both sides. While the points still matter, the stakes differ: Al Ahli are pushing for a top-four finish with a form line that stands in stark contrast to their visitors. Al Ettifaq, firing on fewer cylinders recently, will look to upset the odds against a side whose attacking verve often outstrips the league average. One intriguing subplot? Both clubs have been prone to late twists in their respective matches—a recipe for a nervy encounter under the bright lights of King Abdullah Sports City.

Eyes will surely be on Ivan Toney, whose ruthless finishing and physical presence have unlocked defenses all season for Al Ahli SC, while Al Ettifaq’s Georginio Wijnaldum is known to pop up at critical moments from midfield, offering both industry and inspiration in forward bursts. Not to be overlooked, both goalkeepers—Edouard Mendy for Al Ahli and Marek Rodák for Al Ettifaq—are capable of turning the game with a big stop when it matters.

Perhaps the “hot stat” that stands out is Al Ahli SC’s 12 goals in their last five matches, nearly tripling Al Ettifaq’s tally of four in the same span. The hosts are building a reputation as serial scorers, while the visitors have struggled to get on the scoreboard.

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Al Ahli SC vs Al Ettifaq prediction

The best value match prediction here is a straightforward home win for Al Ahli SC. Backing the favourites makes sense not just from the league table—where Al Ahli are fifth and thirteen points clear of Al Ettifaq—but from deeper metrics. Al Ahli’s explosive attack, led by Toney, Mahrez, and Firmino (when playing), has given them a goal difference of +34 and 12 goals in the last five. They boast 77% win rate for the year and respond to setbacks with rapid improvements, as the bounce-back after their loss to Al Shabab showed.

Al Ettifaq, meanwhile, have won just once in their last four, with hesitant forward play and a defence struggling with pace. While they favour the 4-2-3-1 system, their inability to transition quickly—reflected in only four goals from 51 total shots in five matches—suggests limited firepower. Al Ahli’s physical midfield and compact defensive line intercept well and build quickly, averaging 34 interceptions recently to Al Ettifaq’s 30, as well as enjoying strong set-piece output (22 corners in the last five).

Fouls-wise, Al Ahli tend to invite pressure early but become more disciplined as the match develops, averaging 60 fouls but very few red cards, and their pass accuracy (81 amid 1751 passes in the last five) indicates ball control and deliberate buildup. Al Ettifaq’s passing rate is higher, but with a lower conversion and often less purposeful play. Expect Al Ahli to dominate possession and inch up the pitch, making the most of set pieces, while Al Ettifaq may need to rely on counter-attacks or set-piece surprises.

Team Analysis

Al Ahli SC: The hosts have carved a path through their last five matches—winning four, scoring a dozen, and keeping their foot pressed on the accelerator. The latest outing saw them sweep aside Al Kholood 4-1, a scoreline reflecting not only attacking intent but also a ruthlessness in front of goal. Ivan Toney was again among the scorers, supported adeptly by Mahrez and Gabriel Veiga, while Demiral and Ibañez provided the foundation for counters. Their one stumble, a 1-3 reverse to Al Shabab, was quickly erased with clinical victories thereafter, including an impressive 3-1 over title-chasers Al-Hilal.

Al Ettifaq: In stark contrast, Al Ettifaq have stumbled through a tough run, with just one win (over Al Khaleej, 2-1) in their last five. Their latest fixture, a goalless draw with Damac, typified their struggles to convert chances—despite 13 total shots from Vitinho alone in five matches. Manager Saad Al-Shehri has juggled his options but hasn’t cracked the code for goals. They faltered in key clashes (notably a limp 0-1 loss to Al Kholood), and their midfield balance—despite Wijnaldum’s energy—often fizzles once inside the opponent’s final third. Their passing (1993 in five games) looks superficially positive but needs end product.

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🚨Read our full Al Ahli SC vs Al Ettifaq stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Al Ahli SC the favourite

• Moneyline Al Ahli SC 1.40 | Al Ettifaq 6.34
• Draw 4.75
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.69 | Under 2.5 2.25
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.93 | No 1.83

The odds tell no lies—Al Ahli SC, with a near-90% win rate in the last 30 days, are massive favourites. A price of 1.40 for the home win represents clear market belief in their consistency, composure at home, and their attacking depth. The long odds for Al Ettifaq (6.34) speak to their patchy form and low-scoring run. There’s a modest draw chance, but unless Al Ahli are uncharacteristically profligate, expect them to be in control.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Al Ahli SC possible starting eleven

This line-up leans heavily on experience in central defence and plenty of flair going forward. Mendy’s reliability in goal allows the fullbacks to join attacks, whilst Demiral and Ibañez anchor the defence. Mahrez and Veiga bring vision and technical ability, setting the stage for Toney—whose form warrants close attention. Expect a 4-2-3-1 that pivots quickly from midfield to attack, with Kessié protecting the back four and driving transitions.

Al Ettifaq possible starting eleven

Rodák remains a decisive shot-stopper, but Hendry and Yousef need discipline to hold shape. Wijnaldum’s box-to-box prowess is key—if he asserts himself, Al Ettifaq could wrest some control. Vitinho and Gray offer speed, while Toko Ekambi’s hold-up play could trouble the hosts. This side likely sticks to the 4-2-3-1, pivoting on Wijnaldum’s industry and counter-attacking pace, but they’ll need to tighten up defensively if they’re to survive early pressure.

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My take on the Match

Our main pick is Al Ahli SC to win with at least a two-goal margin—Asian Handicap (-1) looks irresistible given their form and attacking depth. While Al Ettifaq possess technical players, their recent lack of cutting edge and susceptibility to fast breaks are likely to be exposed by Al Ahli’s energy. The battle could hinge in midfield, but unless Wijnaldum single-handedly tips the balance, expect Al Ahli to dominate, pile up the shots, and move one step closer to cementing their place in the top four. Football can surprise us—yet all logical roads lead towards a home triumph, and, with this squad, momentum is certainly with Matthias Jaissle’s men.

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