Ajax vs Volendam Prediction: 24.01.2026 Eredivisie 2025/26

The Eredivisie’s regular season continues with Ajax hosting Volendam at the iconic Johan Cruijff Arena. This fixture sees two sides at different ends of the spectrum, yet Volendam’s recent improvements set up a contest where tactical nuance could play a decisive role. Ajax, under the stewardship of Fred Grim, are looking to cement their place among the league’s elite, while Rick Kruys’ Volendam fight to distance themselves from the drop zone. One intriguing angle here: both Ajax’s defensive vulnerabilities and Volendam’s new-found counterattacking sharpness have influenced recent results—factors likely to shape proceedings on a brisk January evening in Amsterdam.

Among the standout contributors, Oscar Gloukh’s dynamism in Ajax’s midfield will be pivotal, with the youngster showing both scoring and playmaking instincts of late. For Volendam, Brandley Mack Olien Kuwas commands attention with his incisive runs and efficiency in front of goal—having netted twice in his last three appearances.

The “hot stat” from recent matches: Ajax’s passing game remains elite, completing 2,127 passes with a 90%+ accuracy rate over their last five games, a testament to their technical control and ball retention.

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Ajax vs Volendam prediction

Prediction: Ajax win & Over 2.5 goals.

Ajax are the clear favourites—backed by a 73% implied win probability from bookmakers. Their technical superiority, especially in possession and shot volume (55 shots in last five matches), gives them various avenues to break down Volendam’s resistance. However, Volendam have shown recent solidity and selective aggression, even notching two solid victories lately. Still, their defensive lines have been porous (31 fouls, 4 yellow cards, and just 6 corners won across five matches), likely leaving them exposed to Ajax’s robust attacking setup.

Both teams play attractive, forward-thinking football, though Ajax dominate ball possession and build-up (2,127 passes at 90%+ accuracy), while Volendam are more direct and willing to absorb pressure. Ajax’s tendency to control the midfield and push fullbacks high will keep Volendam chasing. Both sides, however, are not immune to discipline issues—Ajax with 37 fouls and a red card lately, Volendam conceding 31 fouls—so set pieces could be influential.

Team Analysis

Ajax: The Amsterdammers come off a morale-boosting 2-1 victory over Villarreal, witnessing Oscar Gloukh’s creativity and the resilience of a back line tested by a top European opponent. Previously, a 2-2 home draw with GA Eagles and a surprising 0-6 defeat to AZ Alkmaar revealed both Ajax’s brilliance and frailties. Statistically, they maintain a high pass completion rate and rack up shots, while conceding more goals than expected for a top-three side—a sign Grim’s defence is yet to peak but still dangerous in transition.

Volendam: Kruys’ squad recently edged Utrecht 2-1, a match characterized by Volendam’s opportunism in front of goal and tenacity when pressed. Their win over Sparta Rotterdam by the same scoreline indicates a side capable of pouncing on mistakes, even if the underlying numbers hint at a team frequently out-passed and out-shot by stronger Eredivisie rivals. Volendam’s challenge will be matching Ajax’s tempo and limiting damage on the wings, as they conceded a huge share of shots from wide areas in recent games.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Ajax vs Volendam stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Ajax the favourite

• Moneyline Ajax 1.30 | Volendam 8.60
• Draw 6.00
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.53 | Under 2.5 2.40
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.01 | No 1.80

With Ajax priced as low as 1.30 to win and Volendam drifting at 8.60, bookmakers have cast their verdict on the gulf in quality and expected dominance from the hosts. The Over 2.5 market (1.53) and BTTS odds suggest goals are expected, but not a one-sided ledger—reflecting recent head-to-head trends where both teams have found the net. These odds offer moderate value for combo bets favouring Ajax’s attack, while the BTTS-Yes option seems enticing given both sides’ inconsistent defending.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Ajax possible starting eleven

This predicted Ajax lineup balances experience and creative energy, assembling the most prolific contributors over the past several matches. Expect a 4-2-3-1 formation, with Gloukh operating as the main orchestrator behind Dolberg. Watch for young wide players Godts and Edvardsen to stretch Volendam’s defence, supported by Klaassen’s box-to-box movement. Recent squad rotation by Grim suggests focus on dynamic full-back play, particularly with Gaaei and Wijndal overlapping frequently.

Volendam possible starting eleven

Coach Kruys is likely to persist with a 4-3-3, optimising for aggressive wide play and rapid transitions. Kuwas leads the line, flanked by Muhren and Ideho who both possess the pace to trouble Ajax on the break. Volendam’s back four is anchored by Verschuren and Amevor who have featured most consistently, while Bukala’s ball-winning presence in midfield helps shield the defence. Key for Volendam will be maintaining discipline and compactness amid Ajax’s relentless pressure.

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My take on the Match

Ajax come into this tie with both an offensive swagger and defensive question marks. While Volendam have pulled off some impressive results recently, the difference in squad quality and tactical control, particularly with the likes of Gloukh and Dolberg, points to a home win. Expect energetic, open football with Ajax controlling tempo and territory, but count on Volendam’s front three to carve out chances in transition. My main pick is Ajax to win with over 2.5 total goals; for punters seeking odds value, Ajax -1.5 Asian Handicap offers solid upside given the Amsterdammers’ attacking intent and home advantage.

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