Liam Duckstein
Two sides with high ambitions and very different recent trajectories meet in Volendam as Ajax take on Utrecht in the Eredivisie Conference League Playoffs. Ajax’s dominance of Dutch football feels distant now, with Utrecht surging into this tie boasting a notably superior recent win rate. Yet, the drama is heightened by the fact that both sides arrive with three points from their opening playoff fixtures, and the stakes could hardly be higher for a continental spot. For Ajax, Wout Weghorst’s presence and leadership up front could be pivotal, while Utrecht’s Mike Van der Hoorn, a defender with an attacking threat, stands out as a key man to watch.
Hot stat: Utrecht have scored 11 goals in their last five matches, with defender Van der Hoorn netting three of those. This attacking contribution from the back is unusual and may tip the balance in key moments.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Eredivisie 2025/26 – Conference League Playoffs |
| 🏟 Venue: | Kras Stadion, Volendam |
| 🗓️ Date: | 24.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 12:15 CEST |
Ajax vs Utrecht prediction
We predict Utrecht to avoid defeat in this match, with value in the Double Chance market (Utrecht or Draw). The main reason is Utrecht’s superior recent form: four wins in their last five, and an 80% win rate over the last 30 days, compared to Ajax’s 40%. Utrecht also bested Ajax in their most recent head-to-head away from home, which suggests they do not fear this opponent. Ajax still control possession well (with 85% pass accuracy over recent games) and have the advantage of historical pedigree, but they’ve struggled to convert control into goals. Meanwhile, Utrecht’s higher shot and corner counts indicate a team not shy about testing the opposition.
Ajax’s matches see fewer fouls and cards compared to Utrecht’s, who rack up more yellow cards and total fouls. Utrecht’s style is robust, sometimes aggressive, and that can disrupt Ajax’s rhythm. The danger for Ajax lies in Utrecht’s set-piece threat; a defender leading the scoring charts suggests Ajax must defend corners and free kicks with absolute focus.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Draw or Utrecht (Double Chance) |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Ajax’s recent games show a team still searching for clinical edge. In their last match, a controlled 2-0 win over Groningen, Ajax managed 8 goals in their previous five outings but have also drawn blanks and been frustrated by compact defensive setups. The side’s 4-3-3 formation prioritizes ball progression and wide play, but too often fails to produce an end product. Defensive solidity improved lately, conceding just twice in the last three games, yet a lack of goals from midfield is notable. Standout performer Mika Godts, with two goals and three assists in the last six matches, provides some spark, while Weghorst’s physicality keeps defenders honest.
Utrecht come in flying. Their 3-2 victory over Heerenveen showcased both their attacking intent and slight defensive vulnerability. Across their last five games, Utrecht have notched 11 goals and amassed 107 shots, evidence of a side willing to take initiative. The 4-2-3-1 system gives them options on the flanks and in attack, and their set-piece threat embodied by Van der Hoorn and El Karouani cannot be overstated. The only worry for Utrecht is their tendency to concede, but the team’s ability to outscore opponents often outweighs this.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Ajax | Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Total shots | 86 | 107 |
| Corner kicks | 26 | 35 |
| Total fouls | 57 | 57 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 85 | 84 |
| Interceptions | 53 | 65 |
| Offsides | 5 | 6 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Ajax vs Utrecht stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Ajax the favourite
- Moneyline Ajax 1.86 | Utrecht 3.82
- Draw 3.96
- Over/Under Over 2.5 1.67 | Under 2.5 2.20
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.63 | No 2.30
Bookmakers price Ajax as slight favourites, largely on name recognition and tradition rather than recent form. Utrecht’s odds remain tempting given their run, while the draw is priced generously. With attacking stats this strong on both sides, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score both appeal. Ajax’s home advantage is blunted at a neutral venue. Our team prefers Utrecht’s value, especially with double chance and BTTS markets.
Possible Starting Lineups
Ajax possible starting eleven
- GK: Maarten Paes
- DF: Anton Gaaei, Youri Baas, Josip Šutalo, Lucas Oliveira Rosa
- MF: Jorthy Mokio, Davy Klaassen, Youri Regeer
- FW: Mika Godts, Wout Weghorst, Steven Berghuis
Ajax should keep faith with Paes in goal, protected by the reliable Gaaei and Baas at fullback. Šutalo and Oliveira Rosa round out a back four that has become more dependable. In midfield, Mokio and Klaassen anchor, with Regeer as a creative link. Up top, Godts and Berghuis offer movement and delivery, but Weghorst remains the focal point his aerial threat and hold-up play could trouble Utrecht. Expect Ajax to stick to their favoured 4-3-3.
Utrecht possible starting eleven
- GK: Vasilis Barkas
- DF: Mike Van der Hoorn, Niklas Vesterlund, Souffian El Karouani, Mike Eerdhuijzen
- MF: Alonzo Engwanda, Dani De Wit, Gjivai Zechiel
- FW: Yoann Cathline, Adrian Blake, David Min
Barkas is a steady presence in goal. The back four features Van der Hoorn, who not only defends but scores, and El Karouani, whose overlapping runs and assists are a threat. Vesterlund and Eerdhuijzen round out a disciplined defensive line. In midfield, De Wit and Zechiel provide balance Zechiel especially with four assists in his last six. Up front, Cathline, Blake, and Min combine speed and directness. Utrecht line up in a 4-2-3-1, adaptable and dangerous, especially on set pieces.
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Utrecht. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Our team predicts Utrecht will get at least a point, and perhaps even snatch a win against Ajax in Volendam. Utrecht’s form and attacking confidence stand out. Ajax will have more of the ball but could struggle to break down Utrecht’s determined back line, especially with Van der Hoorn’s dual threat. Expect a match with goals both sides are finding the net, but Utrecht’s offensive momentum gives them the edge.
