Ajax vs Sion Prediction: 27.08.2026 UEFA Conference League

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Ajax already did the hard work in the first leg, putting four past Sion in a 4-2 win that effectively settled this tie before the second leg even kicks off. Míchel Sánchez’s side head into Thursday’s match at the Johan Cruijff Arena with a two-goal aggregate cushion and the kind of form that makes them very difficult to stop at home. Sion, coached by Didier Tholot, did manage to score twice in that first encounter, which at least suggests they won’t simply park the bus, but the Swiss side arrive in Amsterdam needing a near-miraculous turnaround. One thing worth noting: Ajax’s 56 corner kicks across their last five matches is a number that tells its own story about how relentlessly they press forward, even when the result is already in hand.

Julian Brandt has been the standout figure in Ajax’s recent run, scoring four goals across his last six appearances while consistently pulling the strings in midfield with a high volume of passes and intelligent movement. For Sion, Winsley Boteli Mokango carries the most threat up front with three goals in six matches and the highest shot count in his squad, and he’ll need a big performance if Sion are to keep any hope alive past the first twenty minutes.

Hot stat: Ajax attempted 146 total shots across their last five matches compared to Sion’s 75 — nearly double the output — which reflects a level of attacking dominance that makes the Dutch side’s home advantage feel even more one-sided than the odds suggest.

Ajax vs Sion Prediction

Ajax winning this match is close to a formality at this point. They carry a 4-2 aggregate lead into the second leg at home, they’ve lost none of their last nine matches, and they’re playing in front of their own crowd. The 68% win probability from bookmakers actually feels conservative given all of that. We think the best value here is on Ajax to win and over 2.5 goals in the match, as both teams showed in the first leg that this is not a tie where either side shuts up shop completely.

Ajax’s style under Sánchez is possession-heavy and high-volume in terms of attacking output. Their pass accuracy across five matches sits at 3,400 out of 3,748 attempted, and they average over 11 corner kicks per game. They commit a fair number of fouls — 61 across five matches — but collect cards at a rate that suggests controlled aggression rather than recklessness. Sion are notably cleaner disciplinarily, with only seven yellow cards in five games and 40 fouls, but their pass accuracy is considerably lower at 1,755 from 2,115 attempts, which points to a team that struggles to maintain shape under pressure. Against Ajax’s pressing intensity, that could get worse. The corner market in particular looks attractive given Ajax’s tendency to attack wide and force set-piece situations repeatedly.

Team Analysis

Ajax have been in excellent shape across the past month, winning seven of their last nine matches with no defeats. Their most recent game before this second leg was the first leg itself — a 4-2 home win over Sion that showcased everything Sánchez has built: fast transitions, multiple goal threats across the squad, and the ability to absorb a couple of goals without losing composure. Before that, a 2-2 draw with Heerenveen showed some defensive fragility against domestic opposition, and an earlier 2-2 with Shelbourne in European qualifying was a minor scare, but the overall trajectory has been upward. Marcos Leonardo and Tolu Arokodare both contributed two goals apiece in recent outings, and Brandt’s involvement from midfield remains a constant threat. The squad depth looks solid enough that rotation won’t significantly weaken them here.

Sion’s recent form is more mixed. They’ve won five of their last nine matches but lost twice and drawn twice, and their last result before the first leg was a 6-1 thrashing of Kerzers — a mismatch that inflates the numbers somewhat. The 2-4 defeat to Ajax in the first leg was preceded by wins over Noah and Vaduz, which are respectable Swiss league results but offer little indication of how they’ll cope with another high-press European side. Ylyas Chouaref leads their attack with three goals in six games and a decent work rate defensively, while Franck Surdez and Boteli Mokango also carry real threat. Honestly, Sion’s squad has the tools to score, but whether they can do it three times in Amsterdam without conceding heavily in the process is a different question entirely.

🚨Check out our dedicated Ajax vs Sion stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Ajax the Favourite

• Moneyline Ajax 1.35 | Sion 6.60
• Draw 5.00

The Ajax moneyline sitting around 1.35 is about as tight as it gets for a Conference League playoff second leg, but given the aggregate situation and their home record, it’s hard to argue with. The draw at 5.00 and Sion at 6.60 are essentially insurance markets at this stage. We think the real interest lies in combining the Ajax win with goals markets — the first leg produced six goals between these two sides, and there’s no particular reason to expect a cagey affair with Sion needing to attack. The value in backing both teams to score is genuine here, as Sion have shown they can find the net even against stronger opposition.

Possible Starting Lineups

Ajax Possible Starting Eleven

Ajax have been consistent in a 4-2-3-1 shape across their last five matches, and ter Stegen’s 14 saves across that stretch confirm his status as first choice between the posts. Bouwman has been a reliable presence at the back with the highest pass volume of any outfield player, while Brandt’s four goals in six games make him the player Sion will most need to contain. Gloukh provides creative movement behind the striker, and Klaassen adds experience and composure in the middle. Regeer’s disciplinary record — three yellow cards — is worth monitoring in a match where Ajax might not need to push too hard.

Sion Possible Starting Eleven

Sion’s 4-3-3 setup gives them three attacking options, and with a two-goal deficit to overturn, Tholot may push them high from the first whistle. Racioppi has made 14 saves in six matches and will be tested heavily. Kabacalman’s two assists and high pass count make him the engine in midfield, and the front three of Chouaref, Boteli Mokango, and Surdez have combined for nine goals across recent outings — that’s not nothing. Nias Hefti at right back has chipped in with two goals, which suggests Sion like to get their fullbacks involved in attacking phases. The defensive line, led by Kronig and Sow, will need to be alert to Ajax’s wide overloads and set-piece delivery.

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The Verdict

Ajax should progress without too much drama. Their first-leg 4-2 win, combined with an unbeaten run across nine matches and the home crowd behind them, makes this about as safe a prediction as you’ll find at this stage of European competition. Sion’s attack is lively enough that a completely clean sheet seems unlikely — they’ve scored in each of their last four matches — but the idea of them overturning a two-goal deficit in Amsterdam is very hard to picture. We think Ajax win this 3-1 or 3-2, progress to the group stage, and Brandt continues his scoring run. The “Ajax to win both halves” tip is our preferred call for the hot tip market, given how quickly they tend to assert control at the Johan Cruijff Arena. Sion will give it a go in the second half once they realise the tie is slipping away, which should keep the goals ticking over.

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