Ajax vs Olympiacos Prediction: 28.01.2026 UEFA Champions League

As the curtain falls on the UEFA Champions League’s league phase, Ajax welcome Olympiacos to the iconic Johan Cruijff Arena. Although both sides have struggled for consistency this campaign, the stakes remain sky-high for two clubs with storied European pedigrees, and there’s an air of intrigue whenever Dutch and Greek footballing philosophies collide.

Keep your eyes on Ajax’s energetic midfielder Oscar Gloukh, whose movement and direct runs have added creative spark in recent fixtures. For Olympiacos, Mehdi Taremi’s physical presence and goalscoring touch have been pivotal in their away wins. Their battle will be a key subplot – can Gloukh unlock the Greek defence, or will Taremi’s finishing silence the Amsterdam crowd?

Notably, Ajax managed to fire 86 shots in their last 5 matches – a staggering work rate for a team that’s had issues converting dominance into goals – while Olympiacos have conceded just 5 across their last four, demonstrating steely resolve under pressure.

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Ajax vs Olympiacos Prediction

Given Olympiacos’ resilience on the road this season (three wins from four away games in all competitions) and Ajax’s penchant for adventurous but often porous football at home, the best value bet lies with a Draw No Bet on Olympiacos. The Greeks’ tactical discipline gives them the edge against an Ajax side still searching for defensive solidity, even though the Amsterdam outfit remain threatening in bursts.

Both sides have an appetite for attack but are also no strangers to leaving space at the back. Ajax have accrued only 7 yellow cards in five matches, matching Olympiacos’ tally, but Ajax’s 47 fouls indicate a tendency to break up play when under pressure. Olympiacos, meanwhile, have committed 46 fouls, often using structured pressing rather than reckless challenges. Ajax’s superior ball retention (2991 passes, 89 percent accuracy) contrasts with Olympiacos’ more direct style and just over 76 percent pass completion. Expect Ajax to dominate possession, but Olympiacos’ counter-attacking threat is genuine, and their greater efficiency could prove crucial as fatigue sets in during the second half.

Team Analysis

Ajax’s Recent Games: The Amsterdammers have shown flickers of form lately, notably dispatching Volendam 2-0 and edging Villarreal 2-1. However, that 0-6 humbling by AZ Alkmaar was a stark reminder of their defensive fragility. In attack, they’ve found ways through even against tough low-blocks, racking up nine goals in their last five, but have also shipped 19 goals during this Champions League phase! Their draw against GA Eagles (2-2) revealed a lack of game management, albeit showcasing the emergence of Oscar Gloukh and poacher Mika Godts. Ajax’s main issue? So many chances, but composure has wavered in high-stress moments.

Olympiacos’ Recent Games: The Greeks swept Volos aside 1-0, followed by a disciplined, standout display to turn over Bayer Leverkusen 2-0. Their one hiccup—a home loss to PAOK—was quickly avenged by a controlled win versus Atromitos. Olympiacos’ shape rarely collapses, and their midfield, marshalled by Dani García and Santiago Hezze, have proven adept at shutting down playmakers. Set-pieces have been a source of threat, with Mehdi Taremi and Costinha the men to watch in the box. Their focus on compactness over flamboyance is serving them well, especially away.

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🚨Read our full Ajax vs Olympiacos stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Olympiacos the favourite

• Moneyline Ajax 2.90 | Olympiacos 2.40
• Draw 3.55
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.86 | Under 2.5 1.98
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.75 | No 2.05

The odds point towards Olympiacos as narrow favourites—a reflection of Ajax’s uneven season and the Greeks’ greater consistency in high-pressure matches. The draw price is generous and not to be dismissed, given both teams’ habit of conceding late goals. With two risk-taking defences, the over 2.5 goals market is appealing. BTTS is also strong, considering the attacking profiles and suspect back lines of both squads.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Ajax possible starting eleven

This XI balances Ajax’s strong ball circulation with the need for energy on the flanks—Godts’ pace and Baas’ overlapping runs are vital, while Gloukh offers invention. The 4-2-3-1 shape suits their possession ethos, but the key challenge will be solidifying the central defensive pairing against counter-attacks.

Olympiacos possible starting eleven

Mendilibar’s likely to persist with the robust 4-2-3-1 template, pairing Taremi’s focal-point play with the width and directness of Gelson Martins. García and Hezze anchor the midfield, screening the back line, while Chiquinho’s tactical intelligence links play. Ortega and Costinha offer overlapping support but will need to track back rapidly against Ajax’s wide outlets.

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My take on the Match

All things considered, this looks set to be a fiercely contested encounter with goals at both ends. Olympiacos’ blend of tactical maturity and clinical finishing edges them ahead as our main pick, particularly on the draw no bet market. Yet the vibrancy of Ajax’s young side and the energy at the Johan Cruijff Arena mean nothing is off the table—expect drama, tempo, and moments of magic. The Dutch giants will need a perfect evening defensively to see this one over the line, while Olympiacos have a sniff of snatching a pivotal away win.

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