Ajax vs Excelsior Prediction: 22.11.2025 Eredivisie 2025/26 Preview

The Dutch football scene once again shifts its gaze towards the Johan Cruijff Arena, where Ajax are set to clash with Excelsior in what many might consider a straightforward encounter, yet with undercurrents that are impossible to ignore. Ajax, wrestling with consistency this season, will be eager to bounce back after a shock home defeat to Utrecht. Their visitors, Excelsior, though underdogs on paper, have shown a penchant for grinding out draws and springing unpleasant surprises, particularly if given too much respect or time on the ball. What will really decide this match? The midfield battle and discipline, both of which could tip the scales distinctly.

Keep a close eye on Oscar Gloukh for Ajax, whose recent performances in midfield have provided much-needed thrust and creativity. For Excelsior, Arthur Zagre stands out not only for his solid defensive contributions but also for popping up with crucial goals and surging runs from deep. The interplay between these two could well shape the character of the match.

Hot stat: In their last five matches, Excelsior have managed only 3 goals and have averaged more than six corners per game—a testament to their struggles converting possession while often finding opportunities out wide.

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Ajax vs Excelsior prediction

The numbers and form point strongly towards a home win, but there’s more beneath the surface. Ajax’s attack, led by the lively Mika Godts and the experienced Wout Weghorst, should prove too potent for Excelsior’s leaky backline—a defence that has already shipped 23 goals in 12 league outings. Ajax’s recent record may be patchy, but their home strength combined with Excelsior’s inability to keep clean sheets gives us a clear edge.

In terms of playing style, Ajax are assertive in possession, averaging close to 60 percent in their home games, and execute over 450 passes per match at a solid 83 percent accuracy. However, their aggressive approach has made them vulnerable on the counter and frequently leads to booking trouble: 7 yellows and a red in the last five.

Excelsior, meanwhile, tend to play on the break, thriving in wide positions and regularly accumulating corners—though often lacking a clinical finish in front of goal. They commit a high number of fouls (52 in their last five), which could come back to haunt them with Ajax’s technical proficiency at set pieces.

Team Analysis

Ajax’s recent matches have been a study in frustration and brilliance in equal measure. Most notably, their 1-2 setback against Utrecht exposed defensive frailties, particularly in transition and aerial duels. Prior to that, a spirited but ultimately fruitless European night saw them crash 0-3 to Galatasaray—further sign of fragility under pressure. Still, bright spots remain: the 3-2 victory over Twente showcased Mika Godts’ clinical finishing and Oscar Gloukh’s growing influence, both capable of unlocking defences in a flash. The team’s attacking depth is never in question, yet lapses at the back have cost them dearly.

For Excelsior, form has been inconsistent at best—pointed out by their 1-2 loss to Heracles, despite controlling stretches of the match. They followed that with a 2-2 draw at Telstar, where margins were wafer-thin, and a goalless draw against Excelsior Maassluis. Their most successful showing recently was a 1-0 grind over Sittard, achieved through dogged defending and a rare clinical finish by Arthur Zagre. The team tends to rely on set pieces and looks to spring counter-attacks through the likes of Gyan de Regt, but creativity is often lacking against stronger opposition.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Ajax vs Excelsior stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Ajax the favourite

• Moneyline Ajax 1.35–1.38 | Excelsior 6.50–8.00
• Draw 5.00–5.60
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.60 | Under 2.5 2.18
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.91 | No 1.80

With Ajax given a 69% probability by the bookmakers, it’s clear the weight of expectation lies firmly with the home side. The odds reflect not only the gulf in squad strength and attacking power, but also Excelsior’s defensive shakiness. The value is really in Ajax covering the Asian handicap, with the likelihood that Excelsior’s attack—struggling for goals—will find it challenging to breach the Ajax lines, especially away from home. Over 2.5 goals is also well-priced, given both sides’ openness and the Eredivisie’s penchant for high-scoring games.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Ajax possible starting eleven

Ajax are expected to stick with the 4-2-3-1 that’s served them in recent matches, despite some rocky outings. Pasveer remains a steady hand in goal. At the back, Baas and Rosa offer width and passing range, while Šutalo anchors, hoping to tighten up after recent wobbles. A midfield trio led by Taylor—the seasoned controller—and Gloukh, with his ability to drive forward and pick a pass, brings balance and flair. Up top, the pace and directness of Godts compliment the old-school target play of Weghorst. Especially watch Godts, who’s hit three goals in his last five and looks ever more influential.

Excelsior possible starting eleven

Expect Excelsior to continue with their familiar 4-2-3-1 formation, providing numbers in midfield but often pulled wide to counter and create space. Van Gassel gets the nod for his distribution and command. Zagre and Bronkhorst give athleticism and the chance for danger from deep, while in midfield, Carlen and Tielemans look to keep things ticking. Naujoks has proven an unlikely goal threat, with De Regt’s recent form up top offering the visitors’ main hope. If Excelsior are to pull off a shock, it will likely come via quick transitions, wing overloads, or set-pieces.

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My take on the Match

In matches like these, the temptation is always to side with history and class, and this Ajax side—even in stuttering form—should have too much firepower and depth for Excelsior. Expect Ajax to establish control early, utilise their technical superiority and take advantage of set pieces, given Excelsior’s tendency to concede cheap fouls and corners. Godts and Gloukh should prove difference-makers, while Excelsior will rely on defensive resilience and those occasional opportunities on the break. My main pick: Ajax -1.5 Asian Handicap. The gap in experience, squad quality, and home momentum should see Ajax win comfortably, likely by a margin of at least two goals. But as ever in football, never say never—one slip, one set piece, and Excelsior could be dreaming.

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