AIK vs Degerfors Prediction: 13.07.2025 Allsvenskan Preview

The Allsvenskan returns to Friends Arena as AIK play host to Degerfors in a mid-season fixture laced with consequence for both clubs. AIK have steadily climbed the table under Mikkjal Thomassen, staking a serious claim for European spots, while Degerfors, managed by Tobias Solberg, are scrapping for stability after a rocky run. Curiously, these two sides shared spoils in their last competitive meeting (1-1), which adds a note of unpredictability to this crucial battle.
Amongst the players to watch, AIK’s Filip Benković has quietly been a rock at the back, occasionally chipping in with big goals, while Degerfors midfielder Marcus Rafferty has been one of the brighter sparks in an otherwise tricky campaign with his ability to attack from deep and technical vision.
AIK boast an outstanding 76 percent pass accuracy over their last five games – a stat that stands out amid their creative build-up play, especially compared to Degerfors’ 77 percent. Will this composure on the ball grant AIK the edge, or will Degerfors’ battling nature upset the odds?

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AIK vs Degerfors prediction

In this encounter, the best value rests with a home win for AIK. Their attacking structure and superior pass completion hint at an ability to control midfield tempo and generate chances. A glance at the odds clearly favours AIK – the bullish 1.53 average price underscores their home strength and Degerfors’ struggle to halt the rot (the visitors haven’t tasted league victory for weeks).
Given the recent discipline shown by both sides – AIK (14 fouls, 2 yellows in last five) maintain a more composed presence compared to the foul-heavy Degerfors (26 fouls, 4 yellows) – we could see AIK exploiting Degerfors’ lapses through quick movement and set-piece pressure. The ball possession statistics and pass accuracy edge also tilt the midfield battle to the hosts. The undercurrent of physicality from Degerfors can disrupt play but exposes them to cards and gives AIK more set-piece opportunities.
Bank on goals, but not a high-scoring spectacle. AIK’s last five home performances have lacked fireworks (averaging under 1 goal scored per match), while Degerfors are struggling to hit the net with regularity.

Team Analysis

AIK Recent Games Analysis
AIK’s recent spell has been a mixed bag. While a comfortable 3-0 win over Goteborg showcased their attacking prowess, consecutive home defeats – most notably the 0-2 setback against Halmstads – have thrown up questions about their consistency. The defensive unit, marshalled by Benković and Papagiannopoulos, has sometimes switched off at key moments, but overall, the team’s disciplined shape under Thomassen and ability to circulate possession – boasting nearly 900 passes and 14 fouls in the last 5 games – suggest a focus on patient build-up. Their creativity has been helped by smart midfield shifts, though their attacking heft could use sharpening, as evident in the recent single-goal tallies.

Degerfors Recent Games Analysis
Degerfors, on the other hand, are coming off a demoralising 1-5 hammering versus Djurgardens, extending a miserable run that’s seen them lose five of their last five fixtures. There are flashes of promise in Rafferty’s late surges and the robust presence of defenders like Ohlsson and Diaby, but lapses in organisation and discipline – with 26 fouls and 4 yellow cards in just five matches – continually undermine their efforts. Their passing isn’t shabby (919 completed over five matches), yet the failure to convert possession into scoring chances is evident, netting just once in that same span.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full AIK vs Degerfors stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: AIK the favourite

• Moneyline AIK 1.53 | Degerfors 6.00
• Draw 4.10
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.10 | Under 2.5 1.70
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.05 | No 1.75

AIK are rightfully short with the bookmakers, driven by their home advantage, greater win rate, and Degerfors’ wretched run of results. The draw price acknowledges AIK’s recent unpredictability, though Degerfors have flattered to deceive away. With goal lines tilted towards the under, it’s clear punters are expecting a cagey affair.

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Possible Starting Lineups

AIK possible starting eleven

AIK have favoured a 5-4-1 setup, designed for maximum stability at the back. Nordfeldt’s experience between the posts anchors a defensive line marshalled by Benković and Papagiannopoulos. Saletros offers composure in midfield, Csongvai brings drive going forward, while Ayari’s movement will be key to unlocking Degerfors’ backline. Expect AIK to control possession and play with width, testing Degerfors with overlapping full-backs and set-piece threats.

Degerfors possible starting eleven

Degerfors line up in a 4-2-3-1 shape, seeking to stifle attacks and then spring quickly through midfield runners like Rafferty and Girmai. Forsell faces a stern test in goal, particularly if Degerfors concede space down the flanks. Ohlsson and Diaby offer toughness, though discipline will be crucial; too many fouls could spell doom against an AIK side eager for set pieces. Faraj will need to be clinical if Degerfors are to leave Solna with anything.

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My take on the Match

For us, this encounter seems tailor-made for AIK to get their season firmly back on track. The gulf in form, discipline, and technical quality is apparent, while home comforts in Solna are magnified by Degerfors’ disarray on the road. Expect AIK to dictate tempo, squeeze Degerfors’ midfield, and capitalise on set plays – my pick is AIK by two clear goals, with a clean sheet a real possibility if Benković holds the line.

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