AEL Larisa vs Olympiacos Prediction: 18.10.2025 Super League 1 2025/26

As the regular season of Super League 1 heats up, AEL Larisa welcomes Olympiacos to the Alkazar in what promises to be a true tactical battle. While the bookmakers and standings suggest Olympiacos are heavy favourites, there are undercurrents worth following. Both sides experienced a mixed run of form recently, yet it’s the relentless discipline and resilience of Olympiacos that’s been telling, especially in tight contests.

For Larisa, Jani Atanasov anchors the midfield, offering the rare combination of creative spark and defensive grit—even as the team has managed just four points from their first six fixtures. Meanwhile, Olympiacos’ Chiquinho has been operating at his creative best, putting away three goals in his last five appearances, making him one of the most dynamic midfielders in the Greek top flight.

Hot stat: Olympiacos have accumulated a remarkable 1471 passes at a superb 1096 completion rate in their last five matches, signifying a side fully in control of possession—a sharp contrast to Larisa’s 890 attempted with just 717 completed passes.

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AEL Larisa vs Olympiacos prediction

Given current form, depth, and ball retention, Olympiacos are the clear value for a confident away win. Their attacking play, driven by Mehdi Taremi’s clinical finishing and Chiquinho’s creativity, simply outclasses Larisa’s somewhat blunt edge. Larisa, on the other hand, have struggled for goals and consistency at both ends, and their lack of wins in six outings speaks volumes. Olympiacos’ greater accuracy in passing and more frequent high-quality chances hint at their ability to dominate possession and sustain pressure throughout.

Both teams play a 4-2-3-1 formation, but Olympiacos’ midfield dynamism and higher pressing, combined with their willingness to recycle the ball even under pressure, create a clear stylistic mismatch. Look for Olympiacos to dictate the tempo, exploit Larisa’s susceptibility on transitions, and punish indiscipline—Larisa have 18 yellow cards in their last five, compared to Olympiacos’ 15. Set pieces could also tilt the game, with Olympiacos averaging more corners and shots.

Team Analysis

AEL Larisa struggled in their last match, a 2-5 defeat against Volos. Defensive lapses and poor marking let them down, with five different players booked and no real control at the back. This match marked a recurring theme—conceding soft goals and finding it difficult to dictate tempo for long spells. Across their last five, Larisa have picked up four draws, but their single-digit shots on goal and below-average pass accuracy consistently stifle any attacking momentum.

Olympiacos’ recent run included a 1-2 defeat to PAOK, but that was sandwiched between an accomplished 3-2 win over Levadiakos and a strong performance in Europe, despite a 0-2 reversal against Arsenal. Olympiacos’ 4-2-3-1 has looked fluid, keyed by Chiquinho and Taremi, and their ability to win second balls is outstanding. They average nearly 12 shots per match over the last five, sustain more than 200 passes per game above Larisa’s tally, and are far harder to break down thanks to organizational consistency in their midfield pairings.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full AEL Larisa vs Olympiacos stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Olympiacos the favourite

• Moneyline AEL Larisa 12.00 | Olympiacos 1.22
• Draw 5.90
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.70 | Under 2.5 2.05
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.15 | No 1.62

With Olympiacos sitting near the top of the table and Larisa yet to win a match, it’s no surprise to see Olympiacos at such short odds. The away side comes into this with the sort of attacking conviction and defensive reliability that merits backing them over 90 minutes, while Larisa’s lack of cutting edge in the penalty area makes the underdog price tempting only for the brave-hearted punter. The odds on over 2.5 goals reflect Olympiacos’ high shot volume and Larisa’s defensive openness, making it the statistically sound play for goal bettors.

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Possible Starting Lineups

AEL Larisa possible starting eleven

This selection sees Melissas between the sticks, having started four of the last five. Chakla and Pantelakis anchor the back line, with Bagalianis and Kovačević covering the flanks. Atanasov and Pérez form the midfield engine room, underpinned by Deligiannidis’ dynamism and Warda’s probing creativity. Up top, Garate and Tupta are tasked with unsettling Olympiacos’ rigid shape. Expect Larisa to stick to their trusted 4-2-3-1, prioritizing structure in midfield and countering through the wings.

Olympiacos possible starting eleven

Olympiacos’ likely XI prioritizes continuity, with Paschalakis a commanding presence in goal, flanked by a settled back four. The midfield, featuring Chiquinho, Hezze, and García, balances steel and flair, while Podence brings guile wide. El Kaabi and Taremi, both with recent goals and assists, provide a sharp attacking edge. The 4-2-3-1 formation remains, but Olympiacos’ flexibility allows for an overload in wide areas and quick transitions, a clear edge over Larisa’s defensive frailties.

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My take on the Match

We can’t ignore the sheer gulf in momentum and composure between these two. Olympiacos, with a battle-hardened midfield, peerless pass accuracy, and vital goals sourced from multiple starters, carry the right blend of star power and teamwork into Larissa. Expect Mendilibar’s men to assert authority, seize an early lead and, barring a seismic upset, close the game with comfort—2-0 or 3-0 feels about right. If Larisa are to salvage anything, it’ll take a disciplined, energetic shift and some inspiration from their few creative sparks in midfield.

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