Liam Duckstein
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AEK Athens and Levski Sofia meet again at Allwyn Arena in New Philadelphia for the second leg of their UEFA Champions League 2026/27 Playoffs tie. The first leg ended 0-0, which means everything is still to play for, and a single goal could be enough to settle who advances. What makes this fixture particularly interesting is that Levski arrive unbeaten in their last eight matches, a run that includes the scoreless draw in Greece just days ago.
Two players to watch closely are Luka Jovic for AEK Athens and Sergio Miguel Lobo Araujo for Levski Sofia. Jovic has scored twice in his last three appearances and leads AEK’s attacking line with purpose, while Araujo has contributed one goal and one assist across his last four games and covers a huge amount of ground in midfield for the Bulgarian side.
A hot stat heading into this match: AEK Athens have scored four goals in each of their last two domestic outings, netting eight goals across those two games alone. That kind of attacking output is hard to ignore when assessing their potential at home.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Champions League 2026/27 Playoffs |
| 🏟 Venue: | Allwyn Arena, New Philadelphia |
| 🗓️ Date: | 26.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
AEK Athens vs Levski Sofia Prediction
AEK Athens are the clear favourites here, with bookmakers giving them a 62% win probability. Playing at home in a second leg following a goalless first match, the pressure is on both sides but the Greeks carry more firepower on paper. Their recent 4-0 wins over Iraklis and Athens Kallithea show they can be clinical when the opposition sits deep, and Marko Nikolic’s 4-2-3-1 setup allows for wide creativity and central overloads.
Levski have been disciplined and hard to break down, but their attacking output is limited. They have scored just two goals across their last five matches, and Julio Velázquez’s 4-4-2 relies heavily on compact defending rather than sustained pressure. AEK’s pass accuracy is higher, their interception count is nearly double that of Levski, and they have generated more shots in fewer matches. We predict AEK Athens to win this match and advance.
AEK commit fouls at a higher rate (53 fouls across five matches versus Levski’s 30), which could hand Levski set-piece opportunities. Levski lead in corner kicks across their recent five games with 13 to AEK’s 9, suggesting they do create wide pressure even in low-scoring games. AEK’s yellow card discipline has been better with just one booking compared to Levski’s five, which matters in a high-stakes European playoff.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | AEK Athens to win and both teams to score – No |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
AEK Athens have been in strong form over the last month, winning four of their last six matches with one draw and one loss. Their most recent fixture was a convincing 4-0 home win against Iraklis, where the team showed sharpness in both build-up and finishing. Before that, they beat Athens Kallithea 4-0 and Sint Truidense 3-0 in pre-playoff preparation. The only blemish was a 1-2 loss to Samsunspor, but that result looks like an outlier given what followed. Jovic, Barnabás Varga, and Ambrósini Cabaça Salvador have shared the goals, giving Nikolic variety in his attacking options.
Levski Sofia have been one of the more consistent sides in this playoff round, going unbeaten in eight straight matches with six wins and two draws. Their most recent game was a commanding 6-0 win over Spartak Varna, a result that showed they can score freely against weaker opposition. Before that, they held AEK to 0-0 in the first leg, then picked up back-to-back 1-0 wins over Kairat Almaty. Reinaldo Nascimento Satorno and Sergio Araujo are their main contributors in attack, but the team as a whole has been difficult to score against. The question is whether that defensive discipline holds on the road against a sharper AEK side.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | AEK Athens | Levski Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0 | 0 |
🚨Check out our dedicated AEK Athens vs Levski Sofia stats page for more info.
Levski Sofia. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: AEK Athens the Favourite
- Moneyline AEK Athens 1.51 | Levski Sofia 6.20
- Draw 4.00
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The odds reflect the bookmakers’ strong confidence in an AEK Athens win. At around 1.51, the value is limited on a straight home win, but the price is fair given the context. Levski at 6.20 represents a big underdog tag, and to be honest, that feels justified given their limited attacking record in European competition. The draw at 4.00 is worth noting as a possibility, but in a second leg with the tie level, AEK will push for the result at home. We lean toward AEK Athens winning without both teams scoring, which makes the clean sheet angle the more interesting market.
Possible Starting Lineups
AEK Athens Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Thomas Strakosha
- DF: Filipe Vitó Oliveira, Harold Moukoudi, Llazaros Rota, Stavros Pilios
- MF: Kaan Kairinen, Răzvan Marin, Petros Mantalos, Lovro Majer
- FW: Luka Jovic, Barnabás Varga
Strakosha is the clear first-choice goalkeeper based on his playing time and save numbers. Moukoudi and Rota anchor the centre of defence, with Pilios offering attacking output from right back having already registered an assist. Marin has two assists in three matches and controls the tempo from deep, while Majer adds creativity on the left side. Jovic and Varga lead the line in what looks like a 4-2-3-1 or a flexible 4-4-2 shape. Mantalos adds energy off the ball in the middle third. Jovic is the one to watch – three matches, two goals, and a clear hunger to perform in European fixtures.
Levski Sofia Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Svetoslav Vutsov
- DF: Kristian Dimitrov, Nikola Serafimov, Aldair, Álex Centelles
- MF: Mehdi Moubarik, Sergio Miguel Lobo Araujo, Mazire Soula, Gasper Trdin
- FW: Armstrong Oko-Flex, Reinaldo Nascimento Satorno
Vutsov starts in goal with eight saves across four matches, showing he has been tested regularly. The back four of Dimitrov, Serafimov, Aldair, and Centelles has been consistent, with Serafimov and Aldair both picking up yellow cards, which is something to monitor in a competitive second leg. Araujo and Moubarik are the engine of the midfield, with Araujo being the most direct goal threat from the middle of the park. Satorno leads the line up front and has the most shots among Levski’s forwards. Velázquez will likely set up in a 4-4-2 and prioritise defensive shape early before looking for a counter. Oko-Flex’s pace on the right side could cause problems if AEK push too many players forward.
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AEK Athens. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
This is a tight playoff second leg, but the stats point clearly in one direction. AEK Athens have the better attacking record, more interceptions, superior pass accuracy, and the home advantage. Levski are defensively solid but have scored just two goals in five matches, and their attacking players have not produced consistently at this level.
We predict AEK Athens to win 1-0 or 2-0, with Luka Jovic the most likely scorer. The under 2.5 total goals market looks well-priced given both teams’ caution in the first leg, and we back AEK to keep a clean sheet. A corners bet over 8.5 also has merit, as both teams in recent form have generated double-digit corner counts across their matches.
- Match Winner: AEK Athens
- Total Goals: Under 2.5
- Both Teams to Score: No
- Corners: Over 8.5
