Liam Duckstein
The UEFA Europa Conference League returns with a compelling matchup as Greece’s AEK Athens host Israel’s in-form Hapoel Beer Sheva at the OPAP Arena. Both sides come into this Second Qualifying Round clash boasting strong recent form, yet with tactical differences and distinct approaches that could tip the balance. With AEK Athens desperate to make their mark on the continental stage under Marko Nikolic and Beer Sheva’s resilience on the road under Ran Kozuch, the stage is set for a contest rich in narrative and strategic intrigue.
Key players to keep a close eye on include AEK Athens’ influential attacking trio in their 4-3-3, notorious for quick combinations and relentless pressing, and for Hapoel Beer Sheva, the ever-reliable centre-back Miguel Vitor, whose leadership at the heart of defence and ability to marshal Beer Sheva’s disciplined back line has been crucial. For added excitement, the creative thrust of Dan Biton in midfield could prove pivotal when Beer Sheva transition from defence to attack.
The “hot stat”? Hapoel Beer Sheva are undefeated in their last five matches, collecting three draws and two wins, including a hard-fought 2-1 victory over Maccabi Tel Aviv, showing their ability to grind out results against tough opposition.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Europa Conference League 2025/26, Second Qualifying Round |
| 🏟 Venue: | OPAP Arena, Athens |
| 🗓️ Date: | 24 July 2025 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
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AEK Athens vs Hapoel Beer Sheva prediction
Given AEK Athens’ pronounced home advantage, favoured by both club pedigree and bookmakers, and Hapoel Beer Sheva’s commendable resilience in recent away fixtures, the draw no bet on AEK Athens stands out as the most balanced value. While AEK have won two of their last three (including a convincing 4-1 over Beerschot VA), Beer Sheva’s unbeaten streak and defensive solidity — just two goals conceded in their last five — cannot be underestimated.
Tactically, expect AEK Athens to dominate possession, seeking fluid interplay in the forward line and pressing high, but with a risk of overcommitting (as evidenced by recent home losses where defensive lapses proved costly). Beer Sheva, by contrast, operate with remarkable discipline, frequently lining up in a 4-1-4-1, soaking up pressure and looking for quick breakaway opportunities. Their relatively low foul and yellow card counts also suggest a side that plays hard but within the rules, which could see them stay compact and frustrate the Greeks for long stretches.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | AEK Athens Draw No Bet |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
AEK Athens come into this encounter seeking consistency after a somewhat erratic patch, registering two wins and a loss in their last three. The recent 2-1 win over Belgian side Kortrijk was especially telling, as AEK weathered an early storm, capitalised on set-pieces, and held off a late surge, exhibiting the kind of mental resilience Nikolic lauded in his post-match comments. However, moments of vulnerability remain; the earlier 0-2 home defeat to Waregem and a string of defensive errors in previous league clashes show a team still building towards full cohesion in high-pressure ties.
Hapoel Beer Sheva remain a formidable prospect, their past five featuring a pair of stubborn goalless draws against Levski Sofia and a vital home win over rivals Maccabi Tel Aviv. What stands out is their blend of patience and sharpness on the counter, traits that have helped them keep clean sheets while still striking when the opportunity arises. While goals haven’t flowed in abundance, the discipline instilled by Ran Kozuch and the seamless transition between defensive and attacking phases have made them tough to break down, as evident in their string of drawn matches and the recent stalemate with Levski Sofia.
🚨Read our full AEK Athens vs Hapoel Beer Sheva stats for more analysis.
Pre-game odds and win probability: AEK Athens the favourite
- Moneyline AEK Athens 1.65 | Hapoel Beer Sheva 5.10
- Draw 3.80
- Over/Under Over 2.5 2.00 | Under 2.5 1.65
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.20 | No 1.65
Odds indicate clear favouritism for AEK Athens, especially at home, but the relatively short odds on Under 2.5 and BTTS-No echo the expectation of a tight, low-scoring affair, more tactical than open, in line with both sides’ recent trends. The draw is given a decent weighting, reflecting Hapoel’s defensive mettle and their knack for shutting out opponents away from home. As ever in Europe, an early goal could disrupt all projections, but it’s hard to look past AEK’s advantage in front of their supporters for this leg.
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Possible Starting Lineups
AEK Athens possible starting eleven
- GK: Cican Stanković
- DF: Lazaros Rota, Harold Moukoudi, Domagoj Vida, Ehsan Hajsafi
- MF: Jens Jonsson, Petros Mantalos, Nordin Amrabat
- FW: Levi Garcia, Steven Zuber, Tom van Weert
AEK’s starting XI is expected to feature their established 4-3-3, with Stanković between the posts for solidity. In defence, the experience of Vida and Hajsafi is paramount, especially against tricky counters. Mantalos orchestrates much of the midfield play, while Levi Garcia’s movement up top is a real difference maker. The wingers Zuber and Amrabat thrive on isolating full-backs, and Van Weert remains a constant threat inside the box. This combination offers balance but will need to stay sharp to avoid quick Hapoel breaks.
Hapoel Beer Sheva possible starting eleven
- GK: Niv Eliasi
- DF: Hélder Lopes, Miguel Vitor, Guy Mizrahi, Or Blorian
- MF: Kings Kangwa, Dan Biton, Shai Elias, Eilel Peretz, Zahi Ahmed
- FW: Alon Turgeman
Hapoel Beer Sheva are likely to stick with the 4-1-4-1 that’s brought such defensive clarity of late, with Eliasi in goal and the battle-worn Vitor anchoring a tight back four. Out wide, Hélder Lopes brings both defensive discipline and attacking surges. In midfield, Dan Biton couples creative duties with workhorse stamina, and Zahi Ahmed’s ability to stretch defences provides a vital outlet. With Turgeman up top, they have a reliable finisher — his tactical awareness could punish any lapse from the AEK line.
Formation: 4-1-4-1.
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Hapoel Beer Sheva. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
For all AEK Athens’ inconsistencies of late, their quality at home coupled with Beer Sheva’s struggle to consistently convert draws into victories pushes this tie in the favour of the Greeks — at least for the first leg. Expect a measured start, with AEK’s creativity eventually finding gaps in Beer Sheva’s disciplined lines, but not before being tested by quick Israeli transitions. My main pick: AEK Athens Draw No Bet. There’s value if the match stays tight, with Beer Sheva’s tactical discipline possibly snatching a result if AEK are profligate in front of goal. This should be a match where defensive marshalling gets as much attention as attacking flair — the kind of European tie that tests teams’ credentials for a deeper run in this competition.
