Belgium vs Wales Prediction: 09.06.2025 FIFA World Cup UEFA Qualification 2026 Preview

Belgium and Wales meet at the Stade Roi Baudouin in Brussels in a Group J qualification battle crucial to both teams’ prospects for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Belgium, managed by Rudi Garcia, are still searching for their first qualifying win, while Wales arrive with renewed confidence under Craig Bellamy, topping the group after a strong start. A noteworthy subplot: Belgium’s recent home draw with North Macedonia highlighted some creative issues, while Wales’ scoring form has positioned them as early group leaders.

Watch out for Belgium’s creative engine Kevin De Bruyne, who continues to dictate tempo and could be central to translating possession into chances. For Wales, Kieffer Moore’s physical presence upfront and recent goal showings make him a major threat, especially on counters and set pieces.

Across their last five matches, Wales have averaged over 2.5 goals scored per game, a notable uptick in their offensive output compared to previous campaigns.

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Belgium vs Wales prediction

Given Belgium’s home advantage, depth of talent, and the bookmakers’ odds (67 percent implied win probability), they enter this encounter as the clear favorites. However, Wales’ current attacking form and defensive discipline suggest they have both the resolve and quality to challenge, especially on the break. Recent statistics point toward a relatively tight contest: Belgium created 17 shots against North Macedonia but lacked finishing edge, whereas Wales were clinical in their 3-0 win over Liechtenstein.

Stylistically, Belgium focus on high possession (averaging over 450 passes per match with 88 percent pass accuracy), but their recent shot-to-goal conversion (1 goal from 17 shots last time out) is an area of concern. Wales balance their energetic 4-3-3 with strong wing play and quick transitions, capitalizing on their higher shot totals (26 shots last five) and a relatively high corners count.

🔥Hot Tip:	Belgium -1.25 Asian Handicap
⚽Total Goals:	Over 2.5
💥Both Teams To Score:	Yes
🎯Total Corners:	Over 9.5

Team Analysis

Belgium Recent Games:
Belgium’s latest outing ended in a disappointing 1-1 home draw against North Macedonia, a match in which they dominated possession and created 17 chances but failed to convert dominance into a multi-goal advantage. Their prior performances show inconsistency: a solid 3-0 win over Ukraine had been preceded by a 1-3 defeat in the same fixture, and a narrow 0-1 home loss to Israel. This sequence illustrates an ongoing struggle for attacking sharpness, despite an abundance of chances, and raises questions about their killer instinct in front of goal.

Wales Recent Games:
Wales travel to Belgium on the back of an emphatic 3-0 win over Liechtenstein, building on a 1-1 draw with North Macedonia and a commanding 3-1 victory against Kazakhstan. Under Bellamy, they’ve adopted a direct approach with well-timed surges down the flanks and efficient finishing. Notably, their defense has also shown resilience, conceding just twice in three matches and consistently limiting opponents’ high-quality chances.

Possible Starting Lineups

Belgium possible starting eleven

This lineup reflects Belgium’s recent pattern of sticking to a 5-3-2 formation for extra defensive stability and fluid wing-back movement. The midfield trio ensures balance, while Lukaku and Doku provide a potent blend of strength and pace in attack. Key man: Kevin De Bruyne, pivotal for linking defense to attack and brewing goal-scoring opportunities.

Wales possible starting eleven

Wales are likely to deploy their habitual 4-3-3, leveraging pace on the wings and height in attack through Kieffer Moore. The back four, led by Ben Davies, forms a reliable foundation. Eyes are on Sorba Thomas not just for his creative playmaking but also for his set-piece delivery, while Brennan Johnson’s speed could trouble Belgium’s wing-backs.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Belgium vs Wales stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Belgium the favourite

• Moneyline Belgium 1.40 | Wales 8.20
• Draw 4.60
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.93 | Under 2.5 1.84
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.18 | No 1.60

The market’s overwhelming preference for Belgium (67 percent implied probability) reflects home advantage and squad strength, even though Belgium have not fully convinced with recent results. The high price for Wales (as much as 8.20) signifies underdog status, but their recent form gives them more value than the odds suggest. Over 2.5 goals remains an appealing market given Wales’ offensive output and Belgium’s expected attacking initiative.

You can find all our predictions for today’s games on our football betting tips page.

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My take on the Match

My main pick is Belgium -1.25 Asian Handicap. Belgium’s superior technical quality, combined with home advantage and the need to get their campaign on track, makes them probable winners. Still, their recent inefficiencies in translating dominance into goals leave room for Wales to exploit transitions. Expect Belgium to control the tempo and edge possession, but Wales’ recent uptick in attack and set-piece threat justify considering goals for both sides, making both teams to score (BTTS) at attractive value. With both averaging high shot and corner counts and a tactical set-up geared towards offense, over 2.5 goals and high corners markets both hold value.

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